Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230410
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1210 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO AROUND AVERAGE VALUES FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 922 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF QUITE RAPIDLY SINCE SUNSET...BUT THE
FALL SHOULD SLOW WITH TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD
NARROWS.

FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AFTER LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN TO
BREAK UP SOME AND MOVE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO WILL
GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD SO EXPECT
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MOS REPRESENTS THIS WELL SO STAYED CLOSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

FOCUS IS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE SIMILAR SO WILL
USE A BLEND.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL AND PROVIDING A DRY EASTERLY
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER MAV
LOOKS TO WARM THINGS UP TOO QUICK GIVEN THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW. WILL TREND CLOSER TO THE MET MOS/MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF. BY SUNDAY WARMER ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING
IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER SMALL POPS WILL BE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 230600Z/...

ISSUED AT 1210 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG FROM 08Z-12Z AS THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREAD AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS ARE GETTING
SMALLER.

VERY LIGHT TO CALM WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BE 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...KOCH

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