Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 041651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JH

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