Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221817

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
217 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

After a dry start to the week, rain and storms will return to
central Indiana as a frontal system moves through mid week.
Temperatures will run near normal until then, but drop below
normal mid week before climbing back above normal for the holiday
weekend. Chances for showers and storms appear possible at times
for the holiday weekend as well.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Pleasant morning ongoing as the Ohio Valley resides under the
influence of high pressure. High level clouds filtering the sun
this morning with 14Z temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Very little to change for the mid morning update as the forecast
is in great shape. High pressure will drift across the region
today with scattered cirrus continuing to filter the sun. Westerly
flow will back to southerly by late day with 850mb temps
recovering as coldest air aloft shifts east. High temperatures in
the low 70s look on the mark.

Zone and grid updates out.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...

Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

High pressure will move off to the east of the area tonight, but
the next approaching low and forcing will remain to the west. By
Tuesday afternoon an upper wave starts to get closer and will
bring in chances for showers into the western counties in the
morning, and then add in a slight chance for storms in the
afternoon as well with a bit of instability making its way into
the area. Tuesday night instability will wane but forcing will
increase through the night and should see increasing chances for
rain as a result. The best forcing and available moisture will be
over the area through the day on Wednesday, and rain looks likely
throughout the day. Instability will increase such that by late
morning isolated storms will be possible embedded within the
showers, and scattered storms will be possible during the
afternoon. With all the clouds and showers around, highs will stay
in the 60s.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Thursday night into Friday morning will be dry as a low pressure
system pushes farther away from central Indiana. However, the dry
weather will be short-lived as a surface low approaches from the
southwest and an upper low tracks across Ontario on Friday. This
active pattern will result in showers and thunderstorms at times
throughout the weekend. Latest initialization seems to be
following the pattern well though, so will not make any
modifications at this time. Meanwhile, temperatures through the
period will start climbing above normal once again with highs in
the upper 70s/low 80s and lows in the 60s. The only exception will
be the overnight lows in the low to mid 50s on Thursday night.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 221800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

High pressure will drift across the Ohio Valley through this
evening...maintaining dry weather and scattered cirrus. More
extensive mid level clouds will arrive tonight at KLAF and early
Tuesday at the other terminals ahead of an upper low diving out of
the upper Midwest. Any rain associated with this feature however
will not impact the terminals until Tuesday evening at the
earliest. Southwest winds this afternoon will back to southerly
tonight then southeasterly early Tuesday.





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