Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP

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