Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
FIRST WILL START IMPACTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT RAIN MIXING
IN WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. FURTHER OUT...A WARM UP CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW CHANCES WITH
UPPER TROUGH.

CURRENT REPORTS AND RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE LIGHT SNOW FALLING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS LOWER LEVELS BECOME
SATURATED THIS MORNING...SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SHOULD START ENTERING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
AROUND SUN 10Z.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE SUN 18Z-MON 00Z. THIS
WILL BE WHEN HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE ACCUMULATED...EXPECTING BETWEEN 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 8 AM EST SUNDAY...AND 3 HOURS
EARLIER ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ABRUPTLY CUTS OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MON
03Z AS MOISTURE DECREASES. SO...RAPIDLY DECREASED POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER SUN 06Z WITH JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST A BRIEF SPIKE IN PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY EVENING AS THAT
UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. SO...WILL
ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

FINALLY...A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THOUGH
AS TEMPERATURES TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE A TURN OVER TO SNOW...WHILE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS CAN EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX. DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL RECEIVE MAINLY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY|/...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A FEBRUARY THAW
AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST . NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LINGERING FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS SETUP...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTING ITS INFLUENCE BY LATE DAY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG S/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO THE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIP FOR LATE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 BY FRIDAY...REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 140900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

MADE SOME CHANGES TO SNOWFALL TIMING BASED ON CURRENT OBS SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW HAS BEEN PROGRESSINGSOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SUFFICIENTLY SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELSTO
SUPPORT SNOWFALL. THIS BAND MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KHUF WITH
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW PRIOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING
AFTER 12Z. BUMPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW TO KIND BY AN HOUR
AS WELL.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO
MVFR AND THEN IFR IN SNOW SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY.

EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON OF FAIRLY INTENSE SNOW
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES AND FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH IFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND PUSHING 10-15KT TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT FOR INZ029-036-037-045>047-053>056-062>065-070>072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ028-
035-043-044-051-052-060-061-067>069.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...NIELD


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