Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220224
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

AN OLD FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS WELL. NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING A RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

RADAR SHOWS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECTED PROPAGATION SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX TO PUSH OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. GIVEN THE RADAR
TRENDS HAVE RAISED POPS AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX. DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END AS INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE LOST WITHIN THE ATMOS...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD
SLIGHT CHCS AFTER 06Z. WITH VERY WARM DEW POINTS IN
PLACE...ONGOING LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION BUT ALL GENERALLY SHOW THE
IDEA. STUCK WITH A BLEND.

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD LINGER FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MORE CAN
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN OLD FRONT STILL IN THE AREA.
WILL GO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST TO DRY FAR SOUTHWEST.

WITH FRONT AROUND THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR WAVES MOVING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH...KEPT SIMILAR POPS FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY GETS MORE CONTROL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODELS STILL TRY AND CREATE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. FEEL THAT THIS IS REASONABLE WITH MOST
INFLUENCE OF UPPER HIGH BEING FELT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.

WENT LOW CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH GAINING MORE
INFLUENCE.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM FRIDAY GIVEN SOME CLOUD
COVER FROM EXPECTED CONVECTION. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. MAV LOOKS BETTER SATURDAY
WITH MORE SUN SO STAYED CLOSE MOST AREAS.

HEAT INDICES WILL GET NEAR 100 MANY AREAS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND
CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE.  THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY THOUGH AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL MEANDER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WARM SECTOR MOST OF THE TIME.
AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.  CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.  FOR
NOW...LATEST INITIALIZATION CAPTURES PATTERN WELL WITH CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TEMPS...HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  TEMPS WILL BECOME CLOSER
TO NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WAS
TRIGGERING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY CONGEALING NORTH OF LAF WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHEAST. NOT CONFIDENT THERE THIS
COMPLEX WILL EFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR LAF. EVEN
THERE...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A CERTAINTY. BEST WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
THE HANDLE THIS CONVECTION IS TO BRING A TEMPO GROUP TO LAF THROUGH
02Z AND VCTS THROUGH 08Z AND VCTS TO IND FROM 04Z-10Z. WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE VCTS TO LAF AND IND TOMORROW AFTER 20Z AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED AT THE OTHER SITES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
MENTION.

COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND WORSE FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOMING VERY
LIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND WEST
TOMORROW MORNING BUT STILL LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

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