Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S (NORTH COUNTIES) TO MID 60S (SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S MAY RESULT IN
SOME SCT CU AFTER 20Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP


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