Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 240506

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1206 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1125 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Getting more reports and slightly better radar returns on some snow
showers, mainly over into the Bluegrass region. Also a few reports
of freezing drizzle over southern Indiana, and cloud top temps
suggest precip type could remain an issue. Still not expecting major
travel issues overnight, but as temps drop to freezing or below, we
could see a few slick spots on untreated roads, mainly on bridges
and other elevated surfaces. Have issued a Special Weather Statement
for much of the area to highlight this potential impact.

Issued at 930 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Scattered light precipitation continues across the region this
evening. Most of the recent reports have been a rain/snow mix and
this should transition to all light snow/flurries. A few could still
see a bit of sleet with the stronger returns across east central KY,
but any sleet that occurs should be short lived. High resolution
models continue to suggest the chance for flurries will continue
through the night, especially across southern IN and north central
KY. Still not expecting any travel concerns from this activity.

Issued at 548 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Some convective showers have developed across the region this
afternoon. With these, we have received a few reports of sleet
across the region. Did a quick update to add sleet into the forecast
through the evening hours.


.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Gusty west winds will continue through this evening with gusts in
the 20-30 mph range.  Expect wind gusts to gradually decline tonight
as the sfc pressure gradient relaxes.

Tonight we are still expecting some light rain showers changing over
to a mix of rain/snow and even some very light snow showers/flurries
as a vort max pushes through the Ohio Valley on the back side of the
strong NE U.S. low pressure system. Any precipitation is expected to
be very light and sparse in nature.  With warm ground temps in
place, not expecting any impacts to travel.  However, low temps
tonight will dip into the upper 20s.

For Wednesday expect continued cloudiness with lingering
sprinkles/flurries.  However, low level moisture will thin late in
the day with skies becoming partly cloudy Wed night. Highs Wed will
be in the upper 30s/lower 40s with lows Wed night in the 20s.

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Thursday - Friday...

Dry weather is expected Thu/Fri with sfc high pressure in place and
an upper level ridge moving through.  Expect mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies both days with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Saturday - Tuesday...

The next rain chances will come this weekend as a wave of low
pressure brings plentiful moisture northeast along a slow moving sfc
front over the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z GFS/ECMWF are in agreement with
a weaker, faster moving system however the 12Z Canadian still holds
on to the stronger, slower version. The official forecast is a blend
of model solutions resulting in a decent compromise for now although
it does seem to lean toward the slower side of guidance.  Mainly all
rain is expected from this weather system beginning Fri night and
continuing through at least early Sun.  If the system lingers and a
def band forms on the back side, we could see a mix of precipitation
at the end on Sun night.

Temperatures this weekend will be mild on Sat with highs in the 50s.
Sunday temps will be hold in the 40s for most as a cold front pushes
through the region.

Monday/Tuesday of next week look dry so far with partly cloudy skies
and temps around normal.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1202 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

Blanket of stratus will continue over the region through most of the
upcoming TAF period. Radar returns and near term model guidance
suggests light precipitiation will remain possible over the next
several hours, especially from SDF to LEX. Observations show this to
be mainly a mix of rain/snow showers but light patchy freezing
drizzle is also possible.

Ceilings will likely range from 1500 to 2500 ft through this
morning, then begin to lift and erode west to east during the
afternoon and evening hours. By later this evening, the clearing
line is likely to be along a SDF to BWG line.

Winds through the period will remain west to northwest around 10-12
kts then diminish in the evening to less than 5 kts.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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