Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 302336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
736 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...Additional Flash Flooding and Severe Weather Possible This
Afternoon and Evening...

Surface analysis reveals a deep 996mb low near the KS/OK border,
with a warm front draped across northern portions of IL/IN/OH and an
elongated cold front starting in southwestern MO going down into
portions of MS/LA. This leaves our region well within the warm
sector of the low. Radar/satellite reveals a broad area of showers
and clouds across much of the Tennessee/Ohio river valleys. Of
particular note, convection is now starting to develop ahead of an
MCV over western TN/northern AL. This line of showers and storms
will begin to impact the region over the next hour or two.

Confidence regarding the threat of severe weather this afternoon and
evening remains low. While deep layer shear will be supportive of
organized convection, the amount of instability in the atmosphere
looks to be limited. High to mid level clouds associated with
convection west of the region have kept the atmosphere somewhat
stabilized, and SPC mesoanalysis reveals about 1000J/Kg of MUCAPE
across most of central KY. 12z models from earlier this morning were
showing as much as 2000J/Kg to 3000J/Kg of MUCAPE developing by late
afternoon. Still, what is currently present across the region may be
enough to sustain strong to severe storms, especially across
southern portions of the region near the Tennessee border. The main
threats with these storms would be large hail and damaging winds,
though a quick spin-up tornado or two embedded within the line
cannot be ruled out.

Of bigger concern is the flash flooding potential. SPC mesoanalysis
from earlier this afternoon showed an incredible broad axis of 1.8"
PWATs extending from southern IL toward the gulf coast states moving
toward our region. Based on BNA sounding climatology, there have
only been a handful of times where PWATS met or exceeded those
values for the months of April and May. Suffice to say, there is an
abundance of moisture in the atmosphere ahead of this cold front,
and showers/thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are a near certainty.
While the general motion of the front/system will be west to east,
storm motions will generally be off to the north-northeast, which
sets up the potential for training storms. Current flash flood watch
in place still looks good, as most places within the watch have
already received several inches of rain from storms earlier this
weekend and 1hr/3hr flash flood guidance remains low. Flash flood
guidance is a bit higher across southern/central Kentucky, and while
some isolated flooding could occur, do not think it`s enough to
warrant a flash flood watch in that region.

The line of showers and storms should clear the region by Monday
morning. A sub-990mb low over WI/MI and 1018mb high over the Gulf of
Mexico will create a strong pressure gradient over the region
resulting in very breezy conditions. Winds near the top of the
boundary layer will be near 45kts during peak heating, suggesting
some strong gusts could mix down to the surface. As a result, a wind
advisory has been issued for tomorrow. With the strong winds and
saturated soils, could also see some isolated reports of trees being
blown down.

Winds will subside some Monday night as boundary layer decouples and
gustier winds remain above the inversion. Overnight lows will be
cool, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Quiet weather is in store for Tuesday as weak high pressure moves
near the region. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer
Tuesday compared to Monday as WAA takes place.

By Wednesday, models develop a trough across the central CONUS and
have it digging into the lower Tennessee Valley during the Thursday-
Friday timeframe. Still some uncertainty exists in the evolution of
the trough, with some models/ensembles showing it becoming a cut-off
low in the Southeastern US, while other models swing the trough axis
up the New England coast. For what it`s worth, the latest 12z
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian do not develop a cut-off low and have the system
moving off toward the Northeastern US. Regardless of whatever
solution plays out, it appears that temperatures will be cool
through next weekend, and that wet weather is almost a guarantee
Wednesday through Friday. If a cut-off low develops over the
Southeastern US, the wet weather could extend through the weekend.


.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Complicated forecast this period, with a large upper low pumping a
long line of rains up the MS River and narrow bands of precipitation
arcing out away from it into our area. Have tried to put the focus
in the TAFs on when the main band will move through the region, and
it could bring MVFR to briefly IFR conditions to the terminals as
well as occasional lightning overnight.

By mid morning Monday winds will pick up from the southwest behind
the cold front and become quite gusty.


KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ023>025-030>033.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.



Short Term........DM
Long Term.........DM
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