Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 192020
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

It`s been a chilly day with a noticeable westerly breeze. Winds
have been fairly steady at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20-25 mph.
Temps this afternoon were in the upper 30s to low 40s, though we
have a few sites creeping into the mid 40s in the southwest (where
it`s been sunny for a while). Stratus clouds still blanket the
eastern part of KY, with the clearing line now east of I-65. The
I- 75 corridor will see clouds scatter out by mid-evening. The
pressure gradient relaxes this evening as surface high pressure
builds northeast from Texas, so the winds will diminish to 5-10
mph.

That surface high builds across the Tennessee Valley overnight, so
low-level winds will be light with clear skies. This will allow
temps to drop into the mid 20s Monday morning. Bundle up! Southerly
flow develops on Monday, with deeper southwest flow aloft providing
warm air advection. Expect plenty of sunshine, with highs in the low
50s.

Fair weather will continue Monday night. It`ll be quite a bit warmer
than tonight, however. As a storm system moves east across southern
Canada, near Lake Superior, a 35-40 kt southwest LLJ is forecast to
develop over the Ohio Valley. This will help keep lows in the mid to
upper 30s.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

An upper trough digs southeast toward the Ohio Valley on Tuesday,
sending a cold front through central Kentucky and southern Indiana
Tuesday evening. Prior to fropa, expect a mild and breezy day with
quite a bit of sunshine. Highs should reach the mid to upper 50s,
and may approach 60 in spots. Decided to maintain the dry forecast
Tuesday evening. The latest suite of model guidance keeps precip to
our north across Indiana and Ohio, closer to the parent low and
deeper moisture.

We will likely see an increase in cloud cover late Tuesday, with
another shot of cold air arriving Tuesday night. Expect lows to dip
back into the upper 20s/low 30s.

The weather continues to look pretty quiet through the rest of the
holiday week. For those traveling on Wednesday, expect fair weather
with chilly temps. After starting out below freezing, afternoon
highs should reach the low to mid 40s. Wednesday night into the
morning of Thanksgiving looks cold, with lows in the 20s. Highs on
Thanksgiving should recover into the mid/upper 40s. We should see
some moderation in temperatures heading into Black Friday, with
morning lows around freezing and highs in the 50s.

Medium range guidance is still mainly dry with a cold frontal
passage on Saturday, with a storm track well to our north (similar
to the Tuesday-Tuesday night system). Highs are shaping up to be in
the 50s, with a larger north-south gradient.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1217 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Clearing line is working eastward into our western CWA this
afternoon.  KHNB is clearing out at the moment and so is KBWG.  KSDF
should break out by 19/21Z and KLEX should break out around 19/22-
23Z.  Winds will remain out of the WNW this afternoon with speeds of
10-13kts and perhaps some occasional gusts up to 20kts at times. VFR
conditions are expected overnight with high pressure building into
the region.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation.....MJ


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