Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 271919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

An outflow boundary from the complex of storms moving through
central Indiana today continues to move east across our region
(mainly southern IN/north central KY).  Although there`s not much
more than 20-25 mph wind gusts with this boundary, it is helping to
break down capping over our region spawning showers/storms in its
wake. Expect this activity to continue through the northern
Bluegrass through this evening.  In addition a shortwave moving
northwest along the southern periphery of the ridge is sparking
convection over central TN currently and high-res models do indicate
that it will cause more convection over south central KY this
evening.  As far as storm threats, don`t think we`ll see much of a
severe wx threat but a few strong storms are possible with gusty
winds and heavy rainfall.

Expect showers/storms to diminish after sunset with a mostly dry
overnight period.  Low temperatures will range through the lower 70s

For Sunday, expect the ridging to be weaker with many short range
models indicating a shortwave should arrive during the afternoon
hours to kick off isld-sct showers/storms.  Again, not anticipating
any severe wx but a few strong storms with strong wind gusts may
occur.  Heat indices will continue to be a concern on Sunday
afternoon reaching around 100 degrees.  Lows Sun night will again
range through the low 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Hot, muggy weather will continue through mid week with highs in the
90s and dewpts hanging in the 70s/upper 60s.  Small convection
chances will continue with slight disturbances in the flow.  The
best days early this week for showers/storms will be Monday and

For the latter part of the week, models indicate a welcome cool down
as a cold front finally moves through the region.  High temps will
drop back into the low to mid 80s Thu-Sat with lower humidity
expected.  We`ll see a lull in precipitation as well for the latter
half of the week.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

A complex of storms was moving through SDF and points NE and will
slowly continue to do so through the afternoon hours.  This complex
should provide SDF with VCTS for the next few hours.  Later this
afternoon, expect convective develop over south central KY close to
BWG.  Not confident with t-storm chances yet since it will be isld,
but did include VCSH in BWG TAF.  LEX should stay far enough under
the upper ridge to remain convection free for the day.

Tonight expect winds to become light/vrb or calm with some fog
chances possible mainly at BWG/SDF if it rains at the terminal this
afternoon/evening.  Will keep fog light compared to MOS guidance at
this time.

Tomorrow scattered showers/storms are expected mainly during the
afternoon hours just beyond 18Z.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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