Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

At 12z Wednesday a 500mb high was located from eastern New Mexico
to eastern Colorado. On the west side of this 500mb high an upper
level trough was positioned near the four corners area. A 700mb
high was also located over eastern Colorado this morning with
700mb temperatures ranging from +13C at Dodge City to +16c at
Denver. A surface to 850mb trough of low pressure was located over
eastern Colorado, and a weak warm front extended from northeast
Colorado to north central Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

This evenings analysis as well as water vapor loops show an upper
level ridge centered over the eastern slopes of the Rockies. An
upper disturbance evident in the water vapor imagery was lifting
northward into western colorado and utah. This disturbance will
top the upper ridge and drop southeast through the central plains
on Thursday.

Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will keep the weather
pattern dry across southwest and central kansas through tonight.
Increasing thickness values will result in temperatures warming up
even more over Tuesday`s highs...generally in the mid and upper
90s. Southerly winds will also be increasing across western
Kansas today as the lee side trough along the kansas/colorado
border strengthens through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

As the western CONUS disturbance approaches the central Plains
tonight, we will see increasing high level cloudiness and slightly
warmer overnight lows compared to the past few nights. On
Thursday, the upper wave moves out over western Kansas, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be increasing by Thursday
afternoon and then spreading southeast by Thursday evening.

There is some disagreement between the NAM and GFS as to how much
low level moisture return will occur ahead of this system. The NAM
is moister than the GFS and looks more reasonable given the amount
of moisture return that is ongoing across the southern and central
Plains. Given the NAM values for buoyancy and shear, there is
some potential for a few storms over central Kansas during the
afternoon and early evening hours to produce large hail and strong
to damaging winds. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler over
western sections of southwest Kansas on Thursday as cloudiness
increases and somewhat cooler air starts to move in. On Thursday
night, the main area of showers and thunderstorms starts to move
southeast out of the region as the upper wave moves through.
Precipitation should be coming to an end over south central
Kansas before sunrise on Friday.

The weather pattern will return to mainly dry conditions on Friday
and through the weekend as upper level ridging dominates the
central High Plains again. By early next week, the upper flow
begins to increase from the southwest as the upper ridge axis
slides to the east. This will bring a return to at least slight
chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Southerly winds 10 to 15 knots will continue as a trough of low
pressure remains over eastern Colorado. Tonight the winds will
back slightly more to the southeast. NAM BUFR soundings indicating
what increase in cloud cover that does develop overnight will be
at or above 12000ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  70  95  65 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  98  70  94  64 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  97  69  92  64 /   0  10  30  40
LBL  98  70  95  65 /  10  10  40  50
HYS  97  70  95  65 /  10  10  40  50
P28  95  70  96  69 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert



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