864
FXUS63 KDDC 211734
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a weak upper level
disturbance were moving out of Colorado into northwest Kansas early
this morning. Mesoscale convective allowing models have been very
consistent from run to run over the past several hours that this
area of convection will dissipate before moving into the forecast
area this morning. Latest trends in lightning strike rates and
cloud top temperatures suggests that this is taking place. Will
have to keep an eye on it for the next few hours but current
thinking is that the model solutions will win out and storms
dissipate.

For the rest of today into tonight, expect something of a repeat
of Tuesday afternoon and evening with scattered thunderstorms
developing along a surface trough over west central and far
southwest Kansas by mid afternoon and propagate southeastward into
the evening hours before diminishing. NAM model is progging mean
layer CAPE values around 2500-3500 j/kg along with 30-40 knots of
deep layer shear. LHP is not quite as robust as Tuesday afternoon
with the model suggesting hail sizes more around golfball size.

Temperatures should be similar to Tuesday with highs in the mid
90s to near 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The latter part of the week will see a fairly progressive and active
flow pattern across the northern part of the country. On Thursday,
a strong upper shortwave trough will move east across the plains
of southern Canada and the northern U.S. This will force a cold
front southward into western Kansas by afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms along and behind the front over western Kansas. The
GFS and ECMWF both show a broad upper level trough sagging
southward across North America with the stronger upper level
westerlies extending southward toward the central High Plains and
Ohio Valley by the weekend. This will result in much cooler
temperatures and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. Highs on Sunday may only top out in the lower
70s...some 15 degrees below normal. Temperatures will begin to
moderate some early next week as an upper level ridge over the
western states builds eastward over the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

A surface boundary will be located near the Colorado border
today. East of this boundary gusty south winds this afternoon at
15 to 20 knots can be expected across western Kansas. Late day
convection once again can be expected along this boundary and once
developed these storms will be south southeast. Based on timing
of the latest short term models will insert a period of VCTS at
all TAF sites between 22z and 03z. Model soundings indicating VFR
conditions today with ceilings late day and early tonight being in
the 5000 to 9000 ft AGL level.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  69  96  65 /  20  30  10  30
GCK 101  67 100  64 /  40  30  20  40
EHA 100  66  99  63 /  50  50  10  30
LBL 100  68  99  65 /  30  40  10  40
HYS  97  70  95  64 /  30  30  20  40
P28  96  69  95  69 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert