Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211337
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
837 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 832 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough of low
pressure moving slowly eastward across the Great Lakes Region
while a more zonal flow aloft has developed across the Western
High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure has
settled across eastern and much of central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

With surface troughing on the high plains and southerly winds,
temperatures today should warm into the lower to middle 80s given
plenty of sun. Tonight won`t be as cool as previous nights given
the south winds and vertical mixing, with lows in the lower to
middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Thunderstorm chances will increase by later Tuesday and Wednesday
as upper level troughing approaches the destabilizing lower
levels. The best chance of storms may be Tuesday afternoon and
evening, with lingering storms over south central Kansas
Wednesday. The storms Tuesday may be severe with large hail given
the expected moderate surface based CAPE and strong upper level
winds approaching 60 kts. High temperatures will increase to near
90 by Monday and into the lower 90s by Tuesday given the surface
lee troughing. Cooler highs in the lower 80s can be expected by
Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out by Friday and Saturday as shortwave energy moves across
the plains and low level warm advection resumes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

A lee surface trough will develop with light winds becoming
southerly 12-22kt by mid morning. Winds become light again after
01Z and southeasterly at 8-10kt. VFR conditions will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  62  89  69 /   0   0  10  20
GCK  84  62  90  67 /   0   0  10  20
EHA  85  62  88  64 /  10   0  20  20
LBL  85  62  88  67 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  85  60  87  68 /   0   0  10  20
P28  84  62  88  70 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse


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