000
FXUS63 KDDC 071922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2013

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a
southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is swinging
southeast out of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Region.
Near the surface, a large area of high pressure extends from the
Dakotas southward into much of Kansas. Extremely dry air has settled
across the area with surface dewpoints just below 0F across central
and much of southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Short range models indicate the upper level trough across the
Intermountain West turning more eastward into the northern and
central Rockies tonight setting up the possibility for light snow
development across central and portions of western Kansas into
Sunday. As the upper level shortwave approaches, the prevailing
southeasterly flow near the surface will begin to draw moisture
up into the region with dewpoints climbing well above 0F,
potentially nearing 10F across south central Kansas. While,
moisture slowly increases overnight, surface low pressure is
projected to move quickly eastward across the Colorado Rockies
into eastern Colorado by mid day Sunday. This will set up increased
low level forcing across central Kansas as the surface high in the
Northern Plains is slow to move into the Great Lakes Region.
Additionally, upper level support will be more favorable as a
strong +110kt jet lifts northeast across central and southwest
Kansas through the period. However, NAM/GFS model soundings show
low PW values of well under half an inch with profiles slow to
saturate, potentially resulting in limited snow accumulations.
The best chance for accumulating snow looks to be across central
Kansas near the I-70 corridor where lift/moisture looks to be the
most favorable. An inch or so may be possible here, otherwise,
accumulations are expected to be generally less than an inch.

Temperatures will be somewhat warmer from this morning going into
early Sunday morning as slightly warmer air advects northward into
western Kansas while surface dewpoints climb above 0F. Expect
lows just below 10F across west central Kansas to the lower
teens(F) across south central Kansas. Warmer temperatures can be
expected Sunday as the low level southerly flow continues to draw
warmer air northward into southwest Kansas. However, increased
cloud cover and lingering snow pack will hinder temperatures from
climbing too much. Look for highs only up into the 20s(F) with a
few 30s(F) possible close to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Per discussion with my short term partner, he will do the forecast
through Sunday, and my long term will start with Monday.

Monday will still be in the grip of the cold high pressure system.
Even though skies should be fairly clear, the low level cold air
will still be covering western Kansas.  The surface high will begin
sliding off the the east Monday night, and a warmer southerly flow
will return to the central plains.  After what seemed like longer
than a week, surface temperatures Tuesday will break the freezing
degree mark, with highs in the lower to middle 30s.  Wednesday
appears nearly the same to Wednesday, followed by a gradual warmup
into Friday.  Friday`s highs are expected to range in the upper 30s
north of I-70 to the mid 40s south along the Oklahoma border.  The
ECMWF brings in a swatch of high clouds for next Saturday, which may
knock high temps down into the 30s.  The upper flow pattern will
mainly be zonal Monday into Tuesday, then shift to northwest with a
warming down slope affect Tuesday into Friday.  Around Friday night,
the ECMWF is developing a small upper scale low pressure area near
the Kansas and New Mexico borders.  This is the feature which
should bring some high and mid clouds into the area and help knock
temperatures down a bit.  In addition, it appears a cold front will
slip south through the plains Friday night, and also add to the fall
in Saturday afternoon (day 8) temperatures. No precipitation is
forecast at this time with the fropa, but that will need to be
watched as the next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

Although low level stratus will persist across western Kansas
through tonight, VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
through this evening. MVFR cigs will be possible in the vicinity of
all the TAF sites generally after 06Z as the stratus deck begins
to lower during the overnight hours. Brief periods of MVFR vsbys
will be possible mainly west of KDDC late this afternoon into this
evening as areas of light snow will be possible across portions
of southwest Kansas. However, significant accumulations are not
expected. As for winds, surface high pressure in the Northern
Plains will drift slowly eastward tonight as surface low pressure
moves into the Western High Plains from the west. As a result,
east to southeasterly winds of 5 to 15kt this afternoon will
become more south to southeasterly this evening at around 10
to 20kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  22   6  19 /  30  10  10  10
GCK   9  20   4  19 /  20  10   0  10
EHA  10  33   6  18 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  10  30   6  19 /  20  10  10  10
HYS   8  20   5  19 /  70  50  10  10
P28  12  25  11  22 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...JJohnson