Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 170605
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
105 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, REINFORCING
THE DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES ONLY UP AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 70S(F) IN LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
40S(F) TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTH INTO KANSAS. THE UPPER 30S(F) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME VERY LIGHT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

DRY FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE PLAINS STATES. THE
BACKSIDE VORTICITY LOBE WILL BE MOVING EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY, PROVIDING ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE
AND CLEAR SKIES. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THE GFS/ECMWF, CANADIAN AND
NAM MODELS ALL SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT ORIGINATED OF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST ON TONIGHT, SPREADING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  ROCKIES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
DRY AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS, LIGHT SHOWERS IS ABOUT ALL THAT MIGHT BE
EXPECTED, IF NOT SIMPLY A MOISTURE STARVED DRY SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
WITH CLOUDY ATLOCUMULUS. MODEL PLAN VIEW QPF FIELDS AND 3 HOURLY
SREF QPF PLUMES INDICATE A TRACE TO AT BEST, A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
IN A LIMITED NUMBER OF MEMBERS.

FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE
VARIABILITY. LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER FOR SATURDAY WITH THE
BREAK IN EFFICIENT INSOLATION. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT, AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
MOUNTAIN STATES. WITH A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS, EITHER A CUTOFF LOW
COULD BE FORMED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS THE GFS HINTS AT, OR A BAND OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS (DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE) COULD
FORM ACROSS THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED VORTICITY
LOBE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE THE KEY WITH THIS EVENT, WHICH IS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  66  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  43  67  47  75 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  45  67  48  77 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  45  67  47  77 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  42  63  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  66  46  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.