000
FXUS63 KDDC 131912
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
212 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Much cooler temperatures have moved in with the first of two cold
fronts. Visible satellite confirmed stratus in the cold sector
across western/northern KS, although starting to thin/scatter out
as of 18z. The front pushed all the way down into the central TX
Panhandle at 18z. The front will stall out and begin to
dissolve/become warm frontogenetic tonight as a fairly substantial
shortwave trough digs southeast into western Wyoming by 12z
Saturday. This will induce leeside troughing above the remnant
shallow cold pool. The question will be how quickly the shallow
cold pool erodes. All the short-term high resolution models
suggest that this will happen overnight, so there is at least some
moderate confidence in the front lifting/redeveloping back north
into southwest KS with west/southwest winds at the surface
allowing a warm downslope plume to spread east-northeast across
far southwest KS. Highs in Elkhart to Liberal corridor could reach
the mid 80s tomorrow, but just north of here by a couple counties,
temperatures will likely struggle to make it through the 60s.

Much of the high-resolution model solution suite suggest dense fog
forming across portions of west central KS where surface winds
veer around to the east-southeast in response to the development
of the new surface wave as discussed in the previous paragraph.
Will include areas of fog mainly along/north of the Ark River and
west of U283. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed eventually, but
confidence in coverage and density still fairly unclear at this
time.

As far as thunderstorm chances go, since the first front is a bit
farther south than previously expected, the southwest-northeast
band of higher POPs have shifted a bit farther southeast. There is
pretty good agreement among the CAMs this morning of thunderstorm
development affecting mainly Comanche, Barber, and perhaps Pratt
County in the 06-12z time frame. There will be enough CAPE from
elevated parcel and deep layer shear to support at least a
marginal severe hail storm or two, so that threat will need to be
watched overnight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A drier and fairly quiet pattern will take hold across western
Kansas Sunday through the middle part of next week as weak upper
level ridging transitions eastward across the Intermountain West.
This will set up a northwest flow aloft across the Western High
Plains while much drier air remains settled across the high plains.
Combined with a rather weak flow aloft, precip chances will remain
absent across the region through at least Wednesday. The coolest
temperatures during the period can be expected Sunday as much cooler
air filters southward into the high plains in wake of a strong
frontal passage Saturday, dropping H85 temperatures down below 10C
initially before slightly rebounding. Look for highs only up into
the 60s(F) Sunday afternoon. A lee side trough will quickly develop
across eastern Colorado Monday in response to the approaching
ridge aloft. This will draw warmer air back up into western Kansas
raising H85 temperatures well into the mid to upper teens(C) late
in the day. Expect highs to push up into the lower to mid 70s(F)
Monday afternoon. The modest warning trend will continue through
at least Wednesday as the weak upper level ridge approaching from
the west moves out into the Western High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

MVFR ceilings have lingered at HYS through the early afternoon,
and visible satellite showing only a slow erosion at HYS.
Otherwise, the rest of the terminals were VFR with a northwest
wind around 12 knots. MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings will return
overnight as low level moisture advances north ahead of the next
storm system. Thunderstorm activity overnight is expected to
remain southeast of all the terminals, so will keep convection out
for now. Fog is expected to develop around the GCK terminal, but
should be on the edge of a potential dense fog area, but at the
very least should see LIFR ceilings for a couple hours 09-14z time
frame. DDC, HYS, LBL should see IFR 09-15z before eroding
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  78  39  62 /  30  30  20   0
GCK  51  74  35  62 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  56  81  37  62 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  58  83  38  62 /  30  20  10   0
HYS  53  63  38  63 /  30  30  10   0
P28  60  77  44  65 /  50  60  60   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
KSZ061-062-074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid