000
FXUS63 KDDC 141123
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

An upper level trough will develop over the western United States
Monday and then slowly move across the plains by Thursday in a
weakened state. A minor shortwave trough is expected to move
ahead of this system and pass on Wednesday. Ahead of these
troughs, ample low level moisture will be in place along with
a weak upper level jet across western Kansas. A cold front is
expected to pass Thursday night as the mid to upper level flow
becomes more northwesterly. After Thursday, northwesterly flow
will gradually transition to southwesterly flow with embedded
weak shortwave troughs moving across the Rockies and plains by
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Ample low level moisture and surface heating can be expected
today but the focus for thunderstorm activity will be lacking.
There is a small chance in this pattern that isolated
thunderstorms could develop on the western high plains in the late
afternoon and then move into western Kansas overnight. Any storms
that move into western Kansas tonight would probably not be
severe. With plenty of sun today, temperatures should rise into
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures are expected to fall back
into the 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

The approaching upper level trough and upper level jet streak
along with abundant low level moisture will set the stage for
thunderstorm activity Tuesday and Thursday across the high plains
region. Severe storms can`t be ruled out with the best chance
being Tuesday. Wednesday may be dry after the lead upper level
disturbance passes and pushes a weak cold front through western
Kansas. The next upper level disturbance will pass on Thursday
with additional chances for thunderstorms. Temperatures should be
near or slightly below climatological averages through the period
with highs mainly in the 80s to near 90 degrees and lows in the
60s. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected Friday and
Saturday in the wake of a cold front. Warmer highs in the lower
90s may occur by Sunday and Monday as southwest mid level flow
returns along with surface troughing and south winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Light winds this morning will become south at 10 to 15 knots by
early tjos afternoon. After sunset these winds will fall back to
less than 10 knots and back more to the southeast. Model soundings
this morning indicating VFR conditions can be expected over the
next 24 hours. Later shifts may need to monitor the fog potential
early Tuesday morning as developing southeasterly flow tonight
begins to draw some low level moisture back to portions of
southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  68  90  68 /  10  30  20  50
GCK  89  67  90  65 /  10  20  30  50
EHA  87  65  91  64 /  10  30  20  30
LBL  88  67  92  67 /  10  30  20  40
HYS  92  68  89  68 /  20  30  20  50
P28  89  70  92  72 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert