000
FXUS63 KDDC 190250
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
950 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Upper level high pressure was in the process of building over the
central High Plains in the wake of yesterdays shortwave trough
which is currently pushing through the Mississippi Valley. Upper
level heights continue to build through the day Monday. Strong
upper level westerly flow will expand east across the northern
Rockies and High Plains into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A
shortwave in the westerly flow will push a cold front south into
the central Plains during the day but this will likely stall out
along the Nebraska/Kansas border Monday afternoon. Given the overall
warming of the atmosphere over western Kansas, high temperatures
on Monday should be topping out well into the the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Upper level high pressure continues to build over the central and southern
CONUS through Tuesday. One more warm day is in store for Tuesday with
increasing southerly winds as surface pressure falls in the lee of the
Rockies. Also on Tuesday, a strong upper wave digs into the Pacific
Northwest. This will help kick an upper disturbance off the coast
of southern California toward the central Plains late Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The GFS tries to develop some elevated nocturnal
convection from Hays to Dodge City late Tuesday night. While I can`t
totally rule this out, none of the other models are hinting at it.
Currently we are carrying less than 15 percent pops and a dry forecast
which I will leave as is for now. On Wednesday, a surface boundary
slips into the northern and western part of the forecast area which
could initiate a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

Late in the week, the medium range models show the upper level
trough over the Pacific Northwest intensifying as it digs into the
northern Rockies and Great Basin region. The upper low then slowly
moves east into the northern Plains through next weekend. Chances
for precipitation will increase again by late Friday and
especially into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 948 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

A surface trough will weaken in the lee of the Rockies through
the period, resulting in light south winds becoming light and
variable. VFR conditions will generally prevail. However, some
patchy radiation fog could develop in vicinity of KDDC between 10
and 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  95  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  56  93  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  56  95  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  61  95  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
P28  66  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Finch