Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE ROCKIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. OTHER THAN THE
CIRRUS PRODUCING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE, THERE
WILL BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE STRATUS
OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

A STRONG WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE CONFINED
TO EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHANGE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 MILLIBAR WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS OR SO DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING TOWARD
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND OUTPUT
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. WHILE THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. CONSENSUS
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IS TO LEAVE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  25  51  31 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  49  23  51  27 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  49  24  52  27 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  25  52  30 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  48  25  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  30  51  35 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH



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