000
FXUS63 KDDC 142033
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

...Update to short/long/fire sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Tonight:

Sfc high pressure moving across the region will lead to light winds
through the overnight. An ideal radiational cooling environment is expected
with minimums in the lower 20s (F). Some upper teens (F) cannot be ruled
out attm. Have gone with the cooler side of guidance with values in
the 20F-25F range. As a result, have issued a hard freeze warning for
the entire region. Forecast soundings show dry conditions through the
atmospheric column, so do not expect any impacts from passing/limited
cirriform clouds. No precipitation is expected.

Tomorrow:

The sfc high pressure center will shift off to the east and lee troughing
will strengthen through the day. This will allow for southwesterly winds
of 15-20 mph. Maximums in the mid 60s (F) still look reasonable at this
point. Other than the cold lows, tomorrow should be a nice Spring day
with dry conditions and comfortable temperatures prevailing. There could
be elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon. See the fire
wx section below for specific details.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A progressive upper level shortwave trough moves across the Central
Plains on Thursday from the Intermountain West on Wednesday. This
system will push a cold front across western Kansas late on
Wednesday. Wednesday highs will rise into the 60s with lows in the
mid to upper 30s on Thursday morning.

The upper trough, for Thursday, is forecast to be deeper and wetter
according to the GFS model than the new ECMWF. Model Ensemble QPF`s
are all over the place with snow amounts ranging from over 6 inches
to less than 2 inches across western Kansas. Current thoughts, with
this progressive open wave, are possibly 2 to 4 inches with the
highest amounts north, but this is very speculative at this time.
Current National Guidance is showing about 2 inches. Parts of south
central Kansas may not see much of any snow accumulations with
warmer temperatures. High temps during the day on Thursday will also
be tricky with lots of rain and snow and cloudy skies. Current
thoughts are early morning highs in the mid 30s will fall slowly to
around 30 to 32 into the afternoon with a non-diurnal temperature
trend. Warmer temperatures are forecast for part of south central
Kansas with highs in the 40s. North winds of 15 to 25 mph can be
expected. Lows on Friday morning could be in the mid to upper 20s.

For the period from Friday into next Monday, a warming trend will
ensue with highs warming from the 50s on Friday to the 70s on the
Weekend into Monday. Lows warm from the 40s to around 50. A southern
branch disturbance may bring only a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday night into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. NW/N winds of 12-21 kt will
decrease this evening and then back SW-W 5-10 kt. Increase in magnitude
of 12-21 kt expected by 15Z tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across southwest Kansas
Tuesday afternoon in association with "warm" temperatures, breezy winds,
and moderate relative humidities. Forecast relative humidities are not
forecast to reach criteria attm (15 percent), so will not be issuing
a watch for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  22  64  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  21  65  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  67  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  23  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  22  65  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  64  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ Tuesday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden