Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 060916
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
316 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A northwest flow pattern continued across the Central and Northern
Great Plains as Hudson Bay gyre was well-established. Southwest
Kansas was in between two upper tropospheric jets, with the
southern jet extending from Baja California through New Mexico
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A fairly decent precipitation
event will be unfolding along this jet across southern Texas. The
northern jet core extended from Montana through western Nebraska
into the Ohio Valley where it met up with the southern branch.
Another jet streak in the northern branch was pushing into the
Rockies and adjacent Western Plains early this morning, and this
will bring another surge of colder continental polar air into
western Kansas. The strongest cold advection will actually be
later on today and tonight, thus will not have too much impact on
temperatures today -- more or less a continuation of what we saw
yesterday, but with stronger winds. Speaking of which, winds will
definitely be on the increase, especially as the cold advection
(mainly in the 800-600mb layer) starts to hit during the
afternoon hours with northwest winds ramping up to 20 to 30 mph
with higher gusts.

As far as tonight goes, strongest surface cold advection will be
occurring as a 1035+ mb surface high pushes in. North-northwest
winds of 10 to occasionally 20 mph will likely continue through
much of the night, keeping the near-surface fairly mixed.
Nevertheless, we should still see temperatures bottoming out into
the mid and upper teens for lows areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A warming trend is in store through this forecast period. Our
brief shot of cold air Thursday will be shunted well off to the
east as a warming, downslope wind resumes -- thanks to the
northwest flow polar jet core shifting into the Upper Midwest
region and 500mb heights rising upstream across the Northern
Rockies. Orientation of the 500-700mb heights will be much more
favorable for downslope warming, such that by Saturday and Sunday
we should see afternoon temperatures touching upper 50s to
perhaps lower 60s again. The hemispheric circulation will continue
to superimpose on the classic Pacific-North American
teleconnection pattern, which is a bone-dry one for western
Kansas. This general hemispheric circulation state shows no real
sign of breaking over the next 7 to 10 days (and probably beyond
that).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A reinforcing cold front will push south across western Kansas,
resulting in stronger northwest winds. Sustained wind speeds are
expected to range from 18 to 23 knots, stronger a bit farther
north. The very dry airmass will continue, and VFR flight category
will prevail as a result. There are no indications of any low
ceiling or visibility restriction to aviation across western
Kansas anytime soon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  17  36  21 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  43  19  37  21 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  20  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  46  18  39  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  16  34  22 /   0   0   0   0
P28  49  18  37  19 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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