Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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440
FXUS64 KTSA 182110
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WEST TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS
WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED PULSE TYPE CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE
STORMS WERE FEEDING OFF SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S. THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK. SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS COULD HOWEVER BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
KANSAS BORDER AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND BETTER WIND/SHEAR OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH. SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCES. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING COULD AGAIN BE A
CONCERN. TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE COOLER
BASED ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS BEEN IN LOOKS TO REMAIN THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GREATER
CHANCES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ALSO...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  75  66  74 /  10  20  90  60
FSM   63  81  65  76 /  20  20  70  60
MLC   64  80  68  77 /  20  40  60  60
BVO   53  72  61  70 /  10  10  90  60
FYV   56  75  62  70 /  20  10  60  60
BYV   54  73  58  70 /  20  10  60  60
MKO   61  77  65  75 /  20  20  80  60
MIO   53  75  62  71 /  10  10  80  60
F10   61  77  66  75 /  20  40  80  60
HHW   67  81  69  80 /  20  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20





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