Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 141045
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME LIGHT
FOG ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CU
AT VFR HEIGHTS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF TSRA AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CHANCE IS NOT ZERO. TSRA MORE LIKELY AFTER 15/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER UNSETTLED WEEK OF WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MOST
DAYS...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TO BE SEEN.
NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM WELL ABOVE WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND THEN LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING LOW RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THIS SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED LOW
RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

STAYED NEAR OR BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND PERSISTENCE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.