Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 270434
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1134 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06z TAF discussion is included below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Not much change from the 00z forecast...from a philosophical
standpoint. The main change was in regards to convective potential
tonight. Scattered storms over western and central OK will likely
make their way into eastern OK later on tonight...and have
inserted tempo groups for the E OK TAFs. Don`t think these storms
will survive all the way to W AR tonight. Otherwise...latest short
term model data still consistent with a morning round of storms
followed by an afternoon round. MVFR cigs will spread across the
region tonight and will persist into Friday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Earlier storms to the north and south of the forecast area has resulted in
subsidence across the area so far this evening. Storms to the west that
developed along the dry line may make a run towards ern OK and wrn
AR late tonight...but have lowered pops across the board given the
latest trends. Overnight temperatures look reasonable...but did
raise temps in a few locations across the western zones given the
expected debris cloud cover that will move across the area.
Remaining first period elements were left as is.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.


TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  79  68  84 /  40  60  50  20
FSM   69  78  67  83 /  50  80  60  30
MLC   70  78  68  84 /  40  70  40  20
BVO   70  79  65  83 /  40  60  50  20
FYV   65  74  65  79 /  30  90  60  30
BYV   64  77  64  81 /  40  80  60  30
MKO   71  78  67  82 /  40  80  40  30
MIO   67  78  66  82 /  30  80  50  30
F10   71  78  67  83 /  40  70  40  20
HHW   69  78  68  85 /  50  70  40  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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