Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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067
FXUS64 KTSA 172324
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Some patchy areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this evening
across southeast OK and northwest AR...otherwise expect breezy
south/southwest winds to persist ahead of approaching cold front.
Front should move through northeast OK around 12-14Z and southeast
OK/northwest AR 14-16Z with several hours of strong northwesterly
winds expected behind the frontal passage. 40 mph gusts will be
likely areawide. Should see areas of MVFR ceilings develop behind
the frontal as well. Winds should begin to slack off toward 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm temps prevail this afternoon with a few record
high temps set. Breezy winds will be slow to diminish this evening
which will impact any ongoing fire suppression efforts. Focus then
turns to a fast moving cold front which is currently through far
northwest KS. The front will enter NE OK late tonight and quickly
pass through western AR by late Sat morning. Persistent cold
advection and a broad region of substantial pressure rises will
produce a period of strong winds with frequent gusts of 35 to 45
mph expected. These winds along with temps some 20 to 30 degrees
cooler than today will make for raw Saturday. A brief period of
light showers may rotate across far NE OK and far NW AR Saturday
morning otherwise the front will pass through dry.

Sunday will be pleasant with sfc high pressure overhead before a
warm up on Monday ahead of the next front. Limited moisture return
along with a lack of significant forcing will make for another dry
frontal passage on Tuesday. Pattern looks to amplify from mid to
late week with ridging west / troughing east which will maintain
a dry northwesterly flow through the Plains. The next cold front
is currently timed toward the end of next week but no impacts to
the upcoming holiday weekend are currently forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  56  34  59 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   62  64  36  59 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   58  61  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  56  30  59 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   56  59  31  53 /  10  20   0   0
BYV   57  60  34  52 /  10  30   0   0
MKO   55  58  34  57 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   50  53  33  56 /   0  20   0   0
F10   54  56  35  58 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   63  65  36  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM CST Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....18



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