521
FXUS62 KILM 152123
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
523 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move ashore on Monday bringing increasingly
heavy rainfall and gusty winds especially at the coast. Drier
air will build back into the region Tuesday. After a warm
Wednesday a weak cold front will bring more seasonable
temperatures beginning Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all coastal zones
of Southeast North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina, as
well as Inland Georgetown, Central Horry, and all coastal
waters. Expect low-end tropical storm force winds over land
areas, with heavy rain as well starting as early as late
tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure ridging into the area from the north and slowly
developing low pressure off the coast, will keep moist air in place
over the area through the forecast period.  the low is expected to
track closer to the area tonight into Monday bringing increasing
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms into Monday. A flood
watch remains in effect and Georgetown has been added based on
rainfall expectations.  Lows tonight will be within a couple degrees
of 70 with highs Monday in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain coverage and intensity should be waning early in the period as
coastal low moves north away from the area. There are some slower
model solutions though that would imply otherwise, and until the low
congeals this evening it may be tough to tell the exact sense of
timing. The better chance for pronounced drying comes Tuesday and
Tuesday night, though it will be tough to get POPs below about 30
thereafter with such vort-laden cyclonic flow in the area. Tuesday`s
highs will be near normal whereas both nights will be a tad mild due
to lingering cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Partly sunny and warmer Wednesday as cyclonic mid level flow abates
to more open troughiness locally, though a few small scale vort
maxes will call for slight chance POPs.  Thursday too will remain
mild and with small but non-zero rain chances with light surface
flow but still some weak PVA. This semi-permanent upper trough
pushes a weak front through on Thursday, not ramping up rain chances
appreciably but bringing temperatures back closer to climatology.
Details are a bit murky late in the period as the trough remains,
possibly cutting off to our south per GFS or farther north per EC,
the Canadian keeping more of an open trough. Most of these ideas at
least point to near climo temps or a bit cooler and with only
minimal rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Developing low pressure off the coast and high pressure to the north
will continue to pump moisture into the FA during the forecast
period.  Will see increasing amounts of showers during the period
and correspondingly lower cigs.  Generally will see VFR/MVFR this
afternoon dropping to MVFR/IFR overnight and continuing Monday. NE
winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts of 20 to 25 KT are expected though
much of the period but could be a little higher Monday, particularly
at coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...High chance for MVFR/IFR conditions along w/ rain
and gusty winds through early week as abundant moisture and low
pressure impact the area. Should see some improvement starting Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...a good time to stay off the water with E to NE
winds of 25 to 35 KT with higher gusts expected through the period.
Seas of 8 to 12 feet are expected.

Monday night through Friday... Conditions will take a while to
settle below advisory thresholds following the Monday/Tuesday inland
migration of coastal low. A more typical SW flow will become
established by Tuesday, likely also the day that we fall below 6ft.
Wind and seas abate thereafter, and a cold front is slated for a
Thursday passage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated astronomical tides, strong northeast winds and large swells
will cause elevated tide levels along the coasts of SE NC and NE SC
leading to minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding at times
through early this week. Offshore low pressure could also directly
impact the area bringing the risk for a bit more significant coastal
flooding, especially if a potential landfall coincides with a high
tide cycle.

In addition, easterly swells will drive an elevated risk of rip
currents, especially for east and southeast facing beaches
through Monday. In addition, persistent northeasterly winds will
produce moderate to strong longshore currents.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110.
     Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054>056-058.
     Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     SCZ024-033-054>056-058-059.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...ILM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...