Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 260717
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
317 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring quiet and mild weather through Wednesday.
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Zeta will move up the Appalachians
Thursday, and a cold front will sweep across the area early Friday.
High pressure will build in over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather as high pressure returns to the region with near normal
temperatures to start the week with northerly winds keeping reading
in the low to mid 70s. A warm up is expected heading into Tuesday
into the upper 70s to low 80s and mostly clear skies.  Only
sensible weather outside of some cloud cover will be overnight to
early morning patches of fog, otherwise benign weather for the next
36 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will weaken on Wednesday and slide offshore. Upper
ridge and moisture advection will bring mild and muggy conditions
during the day on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to make
landfall along the US Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Well north of the
tropical system, we will see a slight chance of isolated shallow
showers over our area. As Zeta becomes a remnant low and progresses
inland, rain chances will continue to increase overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current models show the remnant low passing over the southern
Appalachians and racing northeastward through southeastern VA
during the day on Thursday. This will keep the best chance of rain
to western portions of the area. Instability will be lacking, but
with the nature of remnant systems, will not rule out a slight
chance of a stray thunderstorm, primarily inland. Wind fields could
support an isolated strong storm as well. A trailing low pressure
system over the southern plains will approach the area Thursday
night into Friday. This system will bring widespread showers ahead
of a strong cold front. Front will push offshore during the day on
Friday with cooler and drier air infiltrating throughout the day.
Cooler and drier air mass will persist on Saturday as high pressure
builds into a weak CAD pattern. Temperatures and moisture will
increase on Sunday ahead of another strong cold front, but may not
have enough moisture to produce widespread shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moisture from recent rainfall will result in low ceilings and
visibilities, mainly MVFR with pockets of IFR, lasting through
late Mon morning. Clouds will slowly lift to MVFR and high
thresholds from midday onward. Winds generally N-NE at 5 to 10
kt tonight and 6 to 12 kt during daylight Mon.

Extended Outlook...Looking at mainly VFR through Wed with
possible MVFR/IFR during the early morning hrs each day from
ground fog and/or low stratus. For Thu thru Fri, expect Zeta
remnants to push across the Carolinas followed by a CFP.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tuesday...East/Northeast swell from hurricane Epsilon
begins to decrease from 12 second periods to closer to 10 seconds by
Tuesday. Otherwise benign sea conditions with significant wave
heights on the order of 2 to 3 feet with wind speeds under 10 kts
over the next 36 hours.

Tuesday Night through Friday... Weak NE winds will continue as high
pressure weakens and slides offshore on Tuesday night. Winds around
10 knots will become easterly during the day on Wednesday. On
Wednesday night, a remnant tropical system will approach the area
and lead to increasing pressure gradients and increasing winds out
of the south around 15-20 knots. Winds and pressure gradients
continue to increase with an approaching cold front on Thursday. SCA
conditions will likely develop by late Thursday with winds
increasing to 20-25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots, seas 5-7 feet.
cold front will push through the area during the day on Friday as
breezy southerly winds around 20 knots become northerly with the
frontal passage. SCA conditions may continue through the weekend
with surges of northerly and NE winds keeping seas elevated as high
pressure builds over the NE US.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MCK
MARINE...MCK/21



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