Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 021958
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
322 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Isaias will begin affecting the region late
Monday as the storm approaches the Carolinas. Impacts will
continue into early Tuesday before the storm moves north of the
area. Typical warm and humid summer weather will return with a
chance of afternoon thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure system will keep mostly dry conditions over the
region today with hot and humid conditions.  Heat indices today are
not quite as hot with lower dew points across the region, but values
still in the upper 90s to lower 100s will create heat illness
symptoms for those sensitive to heat and with long outdoor exposure
times.

Biggest concern for Monday into Tuesday is the arrival of Tropical
Storm Isaias.  Anticipated rainfall has increased slightly into the
2 to 5 inches range, while some areas could see increased amounts to
6 inches in locally heavier rainfall bands.  Some tornadoes are
possible, especially Monday afternoon/night into Tuesday morning
with the approaching storm.  Tropical storm force winds are possible
starting Monday evening into Monday night through Tuesday morning.
With a more westward track as of this writing, increasing wind speed
potential exists with locations seeing between 45 and 55 mph with
gusts up to 70 mph at times.  For coastal locations, beach erosion
and storm surge flooding is also possible with water reaching
between 1 and 3 feet above ground level.  The storm will also bring
high chances for dangerous rip currents today through Tuesday for
area beaches.  The storm exits the region by Tuesday afternoon, and
conditions area wide should begin to improve with lessening winds,
light rainfall, and improving conditions along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Sharp mid-level trough will linger west of the area through Wed
night. deep southwest flow will maintain tropical moisture across
the region. Not expecting much of the way in convection Tue night
(cannot rule out some nocturnal marine convection) given the post
Isaias subsidence and lingering westerly flow in the mid levels.
Convection appears much more likely Wed with deep moisture lingering
over the area and the sea breeze and Piedmont trough generating
afternoon and evening storms. Could be a weak shortwave south of the
area Wed afternoon injecting some weak PVA into the local area,
although confidence in the shortwave timing is low. Convection will
gradually weaken through late evening, although convection may
develop offshore. Timing/location of the aforementioned shortwave
wave may impact potential for offshore convection Wed night. Highs
near climo on Wed with lows above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid-level trough axis west of the area late in the week will start
to fill as it drifts east for the weekend. Weak high pressure drifts
across the area from the west midweek, setting up offshore for
Sat/Sun. A weak front moves into the area late in the week, but it
may become indistinguishable from the Piedmont trough. Lack of any
mid-level drying and presence of surface features will support
diurnal convection each day. This is pretty typical of summer in the
Carolinas although coverage may be higher than normal given the
abundance of deep moisture. Highs will be near climo with lows a
little above climo.

- Afternoon storms expected each day, coverage will be 40% to 50%

- Temperatures typical of late summer in the Carolinas are
  expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models indicate much less convection today, with only isolated
storms expected along the sea breeze resultant. Dewpoints have
dropped ten degrees since this time yesterday. More of a southerly
flow today versus southwest.

Monday, things will deteriorate noticeably as Isaias moves up the
coast. Look for bands of convection by mid morning. Winds will jump
up 10 kts in the bands with MVFR/IFR conditions.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR expected outside of mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms. Isaias`s forecast track will
bring the system in the vicinity late Monday night with potential
high impacts on airport operations. A mid-level trough creates
afternoon convection and flight restriction headaches towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Mostly moderate S winds at or below 15kts are expected today with
light SE wind waves at 4 seconds. Swell from Isaias between 8 and 10
seconds through Monday with waves ramping up Monday night into
Tuesday. Hazardous seas between 10 and 15 feet out to 20 NM and
upwards of 20 feet beyond 20 NM Monday night into Tuesday, with
marine conditions gradually improving Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Note that waterspout potential will also increase Monday as Isaias
nears.

Southwest flow over the waters continues through Fri with gradient
keeping speeds close to 10 kt. Seas will trend down through Fri,
dropping from 4 to 6 ft Tue night to 3 to 4 ft Wed and 2 to 3 ft Thu
and Fri. Southeast swell will continue to be dominant over a weaker
southerly wind wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Storm Surge Watch for SCZ054-056.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     Flash Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ107.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/III


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