Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 190822
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
422 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will dominate the weather for the first half of
the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will increase late Sunday
into Monday as low pressure lifts northeast from the Gulf coast.
A cold front will bring additional unsettled weather midweek,
followed by high pressure Thursday. A weak coastal trough may
move onshore by the end of the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak mid-level ridging ahead of potential T.S.Claudette and a
decent central Carolinas sfc trof will result in gusty SW-WSW
winds this aftn and evening. This will likely keep the sea
breeze pinned today with max temps likely to reach widespread
90s except 85-90 along the immediate coast. Cirrus shield will
dominate the skies thru tonight with mid level moisture
later tonight thru Sun. The mid-level s/w ridge axis will weaken
tonight allowing moisture basically at all levels to infiltrate
the FA. PWS respond from just over 1 inch early this am to
around 2 inches tonight thru Sun, even hier as the circulation
associated with the remnants of potential T.S. Claudette funnel
tropical moisture northward across the FA Sun and beyond. Have
POPs increase from SW to NE late tonight, in the low chance
range, reaching good chance closer to the coast and likely
inland during Sun. Have stayed on the hier side of guidance for
tonights mins due to active winds and a slowly increasing
tropical air mass. Clouds and potential pcpn will limit max
temps Sun only in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Still quite a bit uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday night
through early Monday as it will depend on the evolution of Potential
Tropical Cyclone 3 currently impacting the gulf coast. ECM
deterministic and ensemble guidance, along with Canadian, continues
to a more organized system moving across the Carolinas Sunday
evening through Monday morning. GFS however, has PTC3 pretty much
dissipated as it reaches our area, with very little in the way of
winds or rains. Forecast leans more towards ECM and CMC solution,
though not as strong. Gusty southwest winds currently forecasted for
Sunday night, with 1-2" of rain through early Monday. WPC highlights
our area with a slight chance of excessive rainfall during this time
period. Marginal risk of severe weather exists Sunday evening and
night as strong low level winds associated with the tropical system
create a possibility of brief tornadoes and occasional strong wind
gusts.

Lingering instability keeps thunderstorms in the forecast Monday
afternoon, particularly across SE NC. Precip chances decrease quite
a bit Monday night as NVA aloft dominates and mid level dry air
briefly moves in. Low temps above normal, with temps Monday around
90 as cloud cover is forecasted to decrease in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues Tuesday as an upper level trough and
associated surface front approach the area. Precipitable water
values climb back to around 2" Tuesday afternoon with increased
thunderstorm chances. Low confidence in timing and strength of
trough for a day 4 forecast, but could see a low severe threat
develop late Tuesday as shear increases. Front slows down as it
reaches our area, lingering near the coast on Wednesday keeping
chance pops in the forecast. While high pressure is expected to
build over the Mid-Atlantic for the back half of the week, stalled
front just offshore with a coastal trough developing will keep
precipitation chances in the forecast Thursday and Friday,
particularly across coastal counties. Slightly below normal temps
forecasted for the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR likely thruout this issuance period with VCSH introduced for
southernmost terminals due to increasing moisture well ahead of
the remnants of the tropical cyclone. Mainly high level moisture
to dominate that will transition to mid-level by the end of
this period. Diurnal cu ceilings will occur from midday thru
early this evening. SW-WSW flow will become gusty by midday thru
this evening, with 20+ kt gusts likely at all terminals. The
coastal terminals will see the sea breeze further aid the
sustained and gustiness, and temporarily back wind directions to
SSW.

Extended Outlook...Isolated convection late Sat night, will
become more numerous Sun thru into Mon due to remnants of the
tropical cyclone. Expect periodic MVFR/IFR. Convection late Mon
thru Wed will not be as widespread but the threat for MVFR/IFR
will continue.

&&

.MARINE...

Through Sunday:
The sfc pg will tighten across the waters today into tonight as
the Central Carolinas sfc trof strengthens-some. This will
result in SW 15-20 kt today into tonight across all waters, with
25 kt gusts more frequent across the ILM NC Waters, hence the
short term SCA now in effect. The circulation well ahead of
potential T.S. Claudette to more directly affect the local
waters Sun and beyond, with winds having temporarily diminished
late tonight into Sun, should increase back to SCA levels across
all waters by the end of this period or the beginning of the
next. Mariners should be convection-free today followed by an
increase in shower and tstorm activity, from SW to NE, mainly
late tonight thru Sun. Seas will become more influenced by short
period wind driven waves, and will peak in the 3 to 5 ft range
this period. An underlying weak SE swell at 7 second periods
will continue.

Saturday Night through Tuesday...
Small Craft Advisory conditions forecasted for Sunday night
through Monday as SW winds and subsequent seas increase with
passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 across the Carolinas.
Southwest winds 20-25 kts Sunday night through Monday night,
with gusts to 30 kts possible for Sunday night and Monday. Seas
around 6 feet. There may also be potential for a waterspout or
two over the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday, but
confidence is low. Southwest winds decrease a bit on Tuesday,
but remain around 20 kts as a surface front approaches from the
west. Seas may linger around the 4-6 ft range Tuesday, and Small
Craft Advisory may be extended from Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight
     for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO


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