Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 130511
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
111 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high
pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
return Friday afternoon as a front approaches. The front will
linger through Sunday night with more showers possible. Much colder
temperatures are possible next week behind a strong front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track. 6z aviation discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure to our southeast will slowly drift offshore tonight
into Wednesday. A weak pressure pattern on Wednesday and weak
ridging aloft will bring above normal temperatures away from the
coast. Water temperatures in the upper 50s will create a strong
afternoon sea breeze and mute afternoon highs significantly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern U.S.
Wednesday night into Thursday, supporting surface high pressure
along the coast. This will keep the weather dry with above
normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday should reach 80 degrees
for all but coastal locations as 850 mb temperatures approach
+12C. Winds will remain light and along the coast will be
dominated by daytime seabreeze/nighttime landbreeze effects.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level low will cut off across Arizona this weekend into
early next week, however two weak disturbances embedded in the
flow aloft plus a stronger shortwave to our north next should
still be able to affect the Carolinas. It`s an active weather
period coming up!

First up will be the approach of a southern stream disturbance
Friday. This system will bring a load of Gulf moisture along
with it, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Well above normal
temperatures, possibly the warmest of the year, will rise into
the lower 80s for most locations away from the beaches. Surface
low pressure moving off the New England coast will drag a
surface cold front southward, likely stalling near Cape Fear
Saturday morning. The atmospheric column should be dry and
capped enough behind Friday night`s departing disturbance to
keep Saturday`s weather generally dry with highs cooling into
the 70s.

Another weak disturbance aloft will approach Sunday, lifting the
stalled front back to the north and bringing another chance of
showers and t-storms to the area. A strong shortwave aloft will
dig southward across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday,
pushing a significant cold front through the area. An
unseasonably chilly airmass should follow. CPC`s 6 to 10 day
outlook has a greater than 50 percent chance of temperatures in
the lowest climatological tercile (33 percent) next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with high clouds moving across through this evening. Light
southwest winds prevail around offshore high pressure, with
southerly sea breeze and gusts to 15 kts at MYR and CRE this
afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Dry high pressure will bring VFR conditions
through Thursday. Next frontal system due by late Friday, which
appears to be the next remote threat to the flight categories.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Quiet conditions expected through tomorrow as
high pressure to our south gradually shift offshore. Winds near the
sea breeze on Wednesday afternoon will gust up to 20 knots and 1-2
foot seas may become choppy as a result. Overnight, winds drop to
around 10-15 knots, still out of the SW.

Wednesday night through Sunday...High pressure will linger near
the coast Wednesday night into Thursday with light winds
expected. As the high puts a little more distance between itself
and the Carolinas Friday winds will turn more southwest and
then increase in speed during the afternoon, likely reaching
15-20 knots by Friday evening. This is in advance of a cold
front that will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday
night. It appears we should remain shy of Small Craft Advisory
thresholds and no advisory is planned.

The front will stall somewhere near Cape Fear Saturday, then
will return north again late Saturday night into Sunday as a new
wave of low pressure develops more showers and thunderstorms
that may affect the area Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...TRA/21


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