Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 201052
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
652 AM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a seasonable day today with low
humidity. Warmth and moisture will be on the rise through the
midweek period. Slight rain chances will accompany a cool front
by Friday. More seasonable weather is slated for the weekend
behind the boundary.

&&

.UPDATE...
Clouds racing down from the north have thickened and appear on
track to bring increasing clouds a bit later this morning. The
primary adjustment this update to increase sky cover and trim
max-T values a little bit.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Slight shift east of trough axis offshore and expansive upper heat
ridge to west will bring surface high pressure of Canadian origin in
vicinity, inducing light, veering wind today and dry air subsidence
aloft. Thus after an unseasonably cool start, temperatures to warm
noticeably into the 80s to low 90s inland. Projected H7-H5 moisture
increase today is confirmed in satellite data trends this morning.
Mountain induced cirrus upstream may be at work as well given wind
trajectory and RH levels. Overall thin nature of cirrus should not
suppress temperature rises a great deal today, so cool, then warm.

Combination of veering winds and partial cloud cover tonight to
result in milder min-T values going into early Tuesday, where lows
should settle in the low and middle 60s. Although dewpoints will be
rising this forecast period, it still will be too dry for mist and
fog to become problematic into first light Tuesday.

Rip Current Risk Assessment - decreasing wave energy will result
mainly in a "low" risk across area beaches, the main energy, NE
waves 1-2 feet every 8 seconds, no TSTMs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level winds remain out of the north through the period, not
exactly the norm for the first day of Summer, as the area lies
between a deep H5 ridge over Arkansas and a cutoff low off New
England coast. Rain chances remain pegged at zero while solar
insolation as well as some weak low level thermal recovery from the
west bring a seasonally warm afternoon. The development of a
piedmont trough and it`s resulting light southerly flow component
will bring lows near climatology in contrast to the few nights
previous.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge to our west retrogrades slightly early in the period
and decreases somewhat in amplitude as shortwave energy slides by to
its north. Locally little synoptic change with southerly flow
component generally confined to the immediate surface layer, with W
to NW flow found as shallow as 925 mb through Wednesday. This will
continue to yield far too shallow of a moist layer for any rain
chances. A front stalls well to our NW on Thursday and while this
may boost WAA a bit the bubble of very hot low level air on models
like the EC seems a bit overdone unless some compressional warming
coming off the mountains is being indicated. Given the uncertainty
and that these are the highest sun angles of the year no big changes
have been made to the hot forecast, and Thursday`s slight cooldown
has been lowered. Frontal boundary finally sags into the area
Thursday night into Friday tempering the heat and bringing more
meaningful rain chances. This boundary washes out to our south over
the weekend but what little moisture it introduces to the area will
still call for minimal rain chances as will mesoscale processes
while temperatures remain within a few degrees of climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. BKN mid-level clouds through 23z. Abating and veering wind
profile from NE to SE by end of period, overall light wind as
pressure field becomes flatter with Canadian high pressure in
vicinity. Dry atmosphere to prevent vsby restrictions.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...As winds curtail, weak wave energy on tap so
nearly ideal marine conditions to navigate through today and
tonight, with a veering but light wind. NE waves around 2 feet
every 8 seconds will linger in the waters through this evening,
with only light chop expected. The atmosphere is dry so no TSTMs
or showers to contend with. The sea breeze this afternoon as
winds veer to SE, may bring occasional gusts to 16 kt inshore
between 3pm-6pm.

Tuesday through Friday...Veering winds on Tuesday as high pressure
progresses east. The center remains close by though keeping speeds
to a relative minimum. SW winds in place through the midweek period
as the high remains offshore. A piedmont trough will add just a few
knots of speed. A front approaches Thursday night into Friday
turning the winds to the east. Diminutive wind waves will coexist
with a slightly longer period ESE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MJC


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