Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 240014
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
714 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will end this evening behind a cold
front, but a disturbance moving across the Carolinas Saturday
could bring more afternoon or evening showers. High pressure
will move overhead Sunday, then offshore Monday with warmer
temperatures expected until the next front arrives Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Cold air aloft and a cold front sinking through the area have
triggered impressive coverage of convective showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. We`ve received
multiple reports from Florence, Myrtle Beach, and Boiling Spring
Lakes of small hail from "BB" to marble size. Radar VIL has
only been near 15 kg/m^2 showing the effect of the
-21C to -24C 500 mb temps and freezing levels 6500-7000 feet.

The heaviest rain today fell from near Longs, SC northeastward
along the Brunswick/Columbus county line where mesonet reports
and radar estimates suggest 1+ inch has fallen.

Model trends have slowed by a couple of hours, but suggest a
rapid clearing from west to east later this evening. Clear skies
overnight and light winds should allow temps to radiate down
deep into the 40s with some upper 30s west of I-95.

Changes to the forecast this evening have focused on
incorporating radar trends showing showers and t-storms
continuing about 2 hours longer than initially thought across
coastal South Carolina. On the coastal waters sea heights remain
above 6 feet but are beginning to diminish quickly south of
Cape Fear. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Line of showers currently along/just east of I-95 is coinciding with
incoming cold front. Cold will be offshore around sunset, with a few
lingering post-frontal showers through early evening. Clearing skies
and dry weather overnight, with low temps in the low 40s. Saturday,
mostly clear skies with seasonable weather and high temps in the low
60s. Could see gusts of 20-25 mph midday. Light showers possible
tomorrow afternoon-early evening with the approach of a second cold
front and strong 500mb shortwave digging into SC, with highest pops
around 30-40% across NE SC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A decent little shortwave along with a cold front will
be moving out to sea at the beginning of the period but will hold
onto slight chance pops as there remains some slight differences in
timing. Sunday will be dry and cool with highs only reaching the
middle to upper 50s. An extended warm up begins Monday via surface
high pressure moving offshore and a westerly downslope component in
the more vertical profile. Highs will surge to the upper 60s to near
70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The first half of the extended period will feature warm
temperatures and mostly dry conditions. There may be some light qpf
just to the north and west with the warm advection and a shortwave
well to the north but our forecast remains dry Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs will be in the middle to perhaps upper 70s but much
cooler at the coast as we are entering prime season for residual
cold shelf waters from winter and warm spring like readings inland.

For the second half of the extended...Thursday and Friday...pops
enter the picture as a quick moving cold front moves through
followed quickly by a seemingly more significant system at the end
of the period. There will likely be more of a break in pops than we
are currently advertising but timing and confidence are a bit on the
lower end. Temperatures will be trending a bit downward towards
climatology as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Now through 01 UTC convection could still affect the MYR
airport with visibility restrictions and lightning in the
vicinity. Some of the convective cells south of Myrtle Beach
down the coast toward Georgetown could even contain small hail.
Showers and associated mid level cloudiness should move off the
coast between by 03 UTC with clearing skies and light westerly
winds developing in its wake.

SKC will continue through Saturday morning, but the approach of
a second disturbance during the afternoon should lead to the
development of high-based cumulus at 6000 feet, some of which
should grow into shallow CBs with showers and gusty winds. These
could develop in the FLO and LBT area as early as 19 UTC,
spreading down to the coast after 21-22 UTC.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...
Southwest winds are decreasing quickly with the
approach of a cold front, which should move offshore around sunset.
Gale Warning for AMZ256 has been cancelled, replaced by a SCA. SCA
in effect for NE SC coastal waters through 3z, and 7z for SE NC
waters, primarily for current 6-9 foot seas slowly weakening into
tonight. Spotty showers will continue over the waters through this
evening, with only a slight chance of thunder. Winds turn westerly
behind the front this evening, remaining out of the WNW through
tomorrow, generally around 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas down
to 3-5 ft by pre-dawn Saturday, lingering around 2-4 ft during the
day as westerly wind chop combines with S swell, as a 1-2 ft long
period E swell persists.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...
Expect just a brief period of offshore flow overnight
Saturday into early Sunday followed by essentially a light and
variable flow Sunday. For next week a prolonged period of southwest
flow on the order of 10-15 knots increasing later in the week to 15-
20 knots. This prolonged fetch will allow a decent swell component
to develop and increase seas possibly into small craft criteria.
Preceding this significant seas will be 1-3 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK/VAO


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