Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 021922
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
322 PM EDT Sun May 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity will begin to increase as high pressure moves farther
offshore. Shower chances may increase Monday, then again
Wednesday as a cold front approaches and stalls nearby
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The boundary layer has moistened appreciably over the past 12 hours
as southerly winds continue to advect dewpoints in the 60s onshore.
The moisture is still shallow and is getting diluted inland where
mixing heights are over 5000 feet this afternoon. Once the sun sets,
dewpoints should rise quickly into the 60s within the shallow
nocturnal boundary layer.

High pressure is now well east of the Carolina coastline and should
continue to move away from the area tonight. A shortwave currently
moving across Louisiana will move northeastward tonight, approaching
the Carolinas late. Increasing deep moisture and steepening mid
level lapse rates associated with this disturbance should result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing inland late tonight,
spreading northeastward to the NC coast by sunrise Monday.

While this first wave of convective showers will be driven primarily
by elevated instability, there will be enough sunshine breaking
through during the day Monday to create around 1500 J/kg of surface
based instability. This should redevelop a new wave of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Bulk shear across the 0-6 km layer is
only expected to reach 20-25 knots and helicity values will remain
low as well, likely promoting only weakly organized multicells and
line segments. Storm motion should be northeastward at 35 mph,
limiting rainfall amounts to a quarter-inch or less at any one spot.
Counting today, it`s been seven days since measurable rain has
fallen.

MOS/model blends for temperatures appear reasonable through the
period.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A very warm southwest flow will be in place initially at the
mid levels with a broad shortwave to the west. This system will
move across the region later Tuesday and Wednesday with the
highest pops basically early Wednesday. The associated front
slows down as it moves across into early Thursday and maintained
pops through this time with the higher values along the coast.
As for temperatures, expect a very warm day Tuesday with upper
80s to possibly even 90 or so inland. The unsettled nature will
keep Wednesday`s highs more muted in the middle 80s. Overnight
lows also warm early in the upper 60s to lower 70s dropping to
near 60 Thursday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong but seemingly moisture starved shortwave will move
across late Thursday followed by a west to northwest flow aloft.
The GFS remains more bullish with pops for the Thursday system
with other guidance not so much. The forecast is reflective of
the latter scenario. Dry conditions will develop Friday and
prevail through next weekend. Temperatures are more or less in
line with climatology outside of a cool morning Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As center of high pressure slides farther offshore, moisture
will be increasing through the column in an increasing southerly
return flow. Light SSW winds through the TAF period 5 to 10 kt
will spike up at coastal terminals in aftn seabreeze. Mid to
high clouds will increase and thicken into this aftn with some
cu development this aftn. After 06z, increasing chance of pcp
and MVFR to IFR ceilings, especially at inland TAFs of FLO and
LBT as mid to upper level disturbance rides across the Carolinas
Mon morning.

Extended Outlook...Increasing clouds and moisture with more
unstable atmosphere Monday through early Wednesday will
increase potential for MVFR/IFR conditions, especially late Tues
into early Wed as cold front crosses the Carolinas. Possible
MVFR conditions again Thurs into Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Monday Night...
South to southwest winds will persist over the next 36 hours as high
pressure moves farther off the Southeast U.S. coast. Healthy
seabreeze winds currently near 15 knots should diminish to near 10
knots overnight, but may increase again nearshore with Monday
afternoon`s seabreeze. Seas around 2 feet currently should build by
a around a foot Monday, then by up to another foot Monday night as
the southerly fetch between here and the Bahamas continues. Dominant
periods should be only 5 seconds, making even a 3-4 foot sea state
bumpy. Increasing moisture and the approach of an upper level
disturbance Monday morning should lead to scattered showers and t-
storms moving across the area. Coverage may reach 50 percent north
of Cape Fear, but should fall to 30 percent of less south of Myrtle
Beach.


Tuesday through Friday...
A southwest flow of 15-20 knots will be in place Tuesday and
Wednesday as Bermuda High pressure offshore and a cold front
moving in from the west maintain a decent gradient. The front
will ease through Thursday with a northerly component to the
winds developing. Significant seas of 2-4 feet can be expected
with some five footers possible Wednesday.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/SHK


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