Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 020027
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
727 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather late tonight into Tuesday.
Low pressure developing across the Gulf of Mexico will bring a
soaking rain to the Carolinas Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Milder and drier weather develops on Thursday before a dry cold
front brings another shot of cool air on Friday. Low pressure
may develop this weekend with the potential for cool and
unsettled weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Cooler air moved in behind a wind shift early this afternoon,
but a real airmass change will slip south across the area
shortly as the cold front arrives. Well above this front a
region of weak isentropic lift in the mid levels (11-15k aloft)
will produce patchy light rain. The odds of any location
actually picking up a measurable .01 is no better than 20-30
percent. Any light rain should clear offshore before midnight
with high level cirrus clouds continuing overnight.

Only minor changes were made to the forecast with this evening
update. Forecast low temps were tweaked up slightly given the
steep low level lapse rates anticipated over warm ground temps.
Minor adjustments were made to winds and dewpoints based on
current obs and HRRR/RAP blends.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As cold front pushes further offshore during the early
afternoon, latest high resolution model guidance shows some
post frontal light precipitation as upper level disturbance
continues to move through the region. Any additional rain
amounts will be light and less than a tenth of an inch. A quick
moving high pressure system will move into the area tonight
through Tuesday evening with much colder temperatures. Lows
tonight will fall into the 40s, which is right around normal for
early March. Highs Tuesday will be cooler than the past several
days in the low to mid 50s, which is on the order of 5 degrees
below normal and around 20 degrees cooler than high temperatures
today. Another cool night for overnight Tuesday with lows in
the 40s. Increasing chances for rain as the next system moves up
the coastline starting Tuesday afternoon. By early Wednesday
morning, area communities could see anywhere from 0.50" to 1" of
rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure system continues to track northward on Wednesday
with a steady light rain overspreading the area from south to
north. Rain rates are likely to increase throughout the day as
deep moisture aligns with upper-level lift within the
approaching shortwave. Rainfall totals may reach up to 1.5 or 2
inches in a few spots with the best chance of heavy rain
isolated to coastal areas. Rain tapers off late Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a resurgence of cool air brings overnight
lows back into the upper 30s. High pressure builds briefly on
Thursday allowing temperatures to jump into the lower 60s with
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will fall
into the upper 30s as cool air advection continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A dry cold front will push through the area early Friday
bringing a few passing clouds during the morning with cooler
temperatures arriving for the afternoon (highs in the low to mid
50s). On Friday evening, a mid-level shortwave traversing the
southeastern US will interact with the frontal boundary on
Saturday leading to the development of a low pressure off of the
FL Gulf Coast. As the low crosses the panhandle of FL on
Saturday and Saturday evening, the NW extent of the disturbance
may bring light showers to our coastal areas as inland areas
stay mostly dry. Regardless of our precip chances, temperatures
will remain cool Sunday and Monday as an upper- level trough
combines with the northerly flow behind the exiting low to keep
temperatures in the low 50s. High pressure builds for early next
week with temperatures remaining below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move south across the area between now and
03z, turning winds northerly. Aside from some stratocumulus
clouds on the front between 3-5kft, ceilings over the next 24
hours should remain VFR.

Extended Outlook...IFR conditions in ceilings and rain will
develop Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure moves up
the coast. VFR conditions should develop Wednesday night through
Friday. Another area of low pressure moving by to our south could
bring IFR/MVFR conditions Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday night...High pressure tonight into Tuesday will
bring a full circle in wind direction from the offshore/NW
direction to N and eventually to the ENE by Tuesday evening
between 10 and 15 kts with gusts as high as 20kts. Winds will
stay in the ENE direction Tuesday night as the next coastal low
pressure system moves up the coast and brings more rainfall
chances and thunderstorms beyond 20 NM. Seas over the next 36
hour period will range between 2 and 5 feet from the SW at 6
seconds, the SE at 8 seconds, and the NNE around 5 seconds.
Smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners may find difficulty
navigating the coastal waters through Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Saturday... Winds become easterly on
Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the south. The
intensifying low is likely to bring elevated winds and seas to
Small Craft Advisory thresholds throughout the duration of
Wednesday. Low pressure quickly moves offshore by Wednesday
evening, bringing a continuation of northerly winds associated
with building high pressure for Thursday. Seas become 2-4 feet
as the gradient weakens throughout the day on Thursday. Dry cold
front will push through the area on Friday, bringing another
brief surge of elevated winds and seas. Low pressure develops to
our south on Friday night and Saturday bringing a wind shift
from northerly to northeasterly. Gradient increases in response
to the deepening surface low on Saturday with NE winds
increasing to 15-20 knots. Small Craft Advisory conditions may
be possible depending on the proximity of the disturbance
through next weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MCK/21



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