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000
FXUS62 KILM 150006
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
806 PM EDT Fri May 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring cool mornings this weekend, and mild
afternoons, with fair skies. A warming trend sets up early next
week as the high progresses offshore and winds are allowed to
turn more southerly.

&&

.UPDATE...
No edits of note, the marine advisory is now expired, although
mariners should use caution due to 20 kt gusts and 5 foot seas
offshore early this evening, before more noticeable improvement
overnight into early Saturday.

Over land, easing winds to N-NE 2-5 knots overnight. Max-RH of
only 70 percent should prevent fog or mist, so visibility will
remain optimum into early Saturday, along with chilled air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Overhead, a dry, broad mid-level trough is moving through the
eastern U.S. Another dry near term period, as the surface high
pressure moves ESE into the Ohio River Valley, and eventually
toward the mid-Atlantic states. Northeasterly flow continues for
one more day, though the pressure gradient relaxes. Clear skies
tonight with lows mostly in the mid-to- upper 40s, though some
of the typical cold spots in southeast NC could go as low as 40.
There is potential for some low temperature records to be tied
or broken. Will need to keep an eye on this one.

Plenty of sunshine is in store for Saturday. Northeasterly flow
is weaker this time, and as a result, temperatures are able to
creep up a little bit more, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s,
which is still 5-7 degrees below normal for mid-May. Could also
see a few cumulus clouds in the 8000-10000ft range. Winds
finally start to break the recent trend, and veer more easterly
by Saturday afternoon/evening. This sets up for more serious air
mass modification. Saturday night lows in the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to meander off the SE VA coast on Sunday,
but will maintain clear skies and pleasant weather over our
forecast area with slight moderation into the upper-70s on
Sunday afternoon. High pressure continues to push further
offshore on Sunday evening as a warm front lifts northward well
to our west. The area will remain dry on Sunday night into
Monday morning with overnight lows warming into the upper 50s as
low-level moisture starts to return.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Over the past 24 hours, models have trended weaker with a
small, low- amplitude shortwave developing out of the Mid-
Atlantic on Monday night and Tuesday. Will be reducing PoPs
again as the surface low spawned by the shortwave lacks
significant forcing and remains well offshore. The frontal
boundary associated with this system will begin to push
southward on Tuesday and could bring some isolated showers
during the afternoon. Soundings are trending toward decreasing
instability on Tuesday afternoon as well, therefore I have
removed thunder from the forecast at the moment. Mode of
precipitation is likely to be isolated showers, if any develop.
Mid-level ridging builds into the area on Wednesday with surface
high pressure returning through late next week. Temperatures
will hover around climo through the long-term with upper 70s to
near 80 on Tuesday moderating into the upper-80s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very VFR, nearly SKC, aside from inconsequential cirrus and fair
weather afternoon cumulus. Light N-NE winds overnight to calm,
becoming NE 6-9 knots aft 14z. At coastal terminals E winds 9-14
kt enhanced by sea breeze in afternoon, winds easing to E-ESE
6 to 9 knots at coast aft 22z.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday Night... 6ft seas and wind gusts are dropping
fast, allowing for the Small Craft Advisory to expire this
afternoon at 21Z (5 PM EDT). Gusts calm tonight, while the
northeasterly sustained wind at 15kts decreases to 10kts by
Saturday morning. Seas are becoming more like 2-3ft at the coast
with 4-5ft out 20nm from shore, but by Saturday morning, seas
are much more uniform, with 3ft waves found pretty much
everywhere. Winds become more easterly by Saturday afternoon,
and decrease more to 5-10kts late Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday... High pressure nearly overhead on
Sunday will keep winds around 10 knots, mainly out of the east
with minor local variations. Light easterlies will slowly
transition to a more SE direction through Monday with seas
generally around 2 feet. A weak cold front will approach the
area from the north on Monday night and Tuesday. The gradient
associated with this system will be weak, expecting winds out of
the S and SE around 10-15 knots late Monday through Tuesday.
High pressure builds into the area again on Wednesday with light
winds continuing out of the east.

&&

.CLIMATE...
After a fairly wet winter, below normal rainfall developed in
March and continued throughout April with abnormally dry (D0)
conditions officially declared on the U.S. Drought Monitor on
April 20. Worsening rainfall deficits have led to D1 (moderate
drought) developing across parts of all 14 of the counties we
cover in eastern North and South Carolina. This is despite
Wednesday`s rain which averaged 0.3 to 0.6 inches and locally up
to 2 inches.

Rainfall deficits are most significant over the past 60 days
and are likely to grow over the next 7+ days with little to no
rain in the forecast.

                   60 day rainfall   Normal   Departure from Normal
Wilmington              3.89"         6.86"       -2.97" (57%)
Lumberton               3.74"         5.91"       -2.17" (63%)
North Myrtle Beach      4.28"         5.99"       -1.71" (71%)
Florence                2.74"         6.09"       -2.34" (45%)

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


UPDATE...MJC
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...8
MARINE...IGB/21
CLIMATE...TRA