352
FXUS62 KILM 220150
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
950 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as
Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain
nearly stationary.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes with the latest update. Still limited coverage
of showers and storms across SE NC and NE SC but expect that to
increase over the next few hours as upstream convection driven
by some shortwave energy aloft moves into the area and meets up
with the decaying sea breeze. Thus, the best rain chances this
evening look to be inland with locally heavy rainfall possible.
Fortunately the severe storm risk appears pretty low given the
waning instability.

Also, the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect this evening
for the lower Cape Fear River where minor tidal flooding is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection began this afternoon, today`s air mass is very
similar to that of the last few days, and it is expected that
convection will continue into the evening. Global Models show
convection to the southwest and moving up to the western
portions of the forecast area by sunrise. Another area to watch,
according to the HREF models, is convection developing south of
the area off the coast overnight. The models show the
convection moving onshore, mainly north of Myrtle Beach. The
confidence in the location of all the developing convection is
low.

Lows tonight are expected in the middle 70s, and Monday`s high
temperatures with expected cloud cover and morning convection
should stay in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Area will remain in deep moist SW flow between ridge to the
east and troughing to the west. This will maintain a warm and
humid summertime air mass with chc of shwrs/tstms each day.
Still looks like ridge may build westward by Tues with heights
up to 595 by Tues aftn but may should see minor perturbations
move northeast through the area and timing is a challenge so
greater chc of convection may be hard to pinpoint leaving mainly
scattered coverage overall. Coverage is difficult to forecast
at any one specific time during the day, but with ridge building
westward, should see storms end earlier Tues night. May see a
few shwrs move up the coast overnight Tues into Wed morning.
Main focus should remain along Piedmont trough inland and
associated with land/sea breeze closer to the coast. Temps will
be in the upper 80s to around 90 for highs with overnight lows
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern remains fairly unchanged with ridge of high pressure to
the east and troughiness to the west, but by late week, pattern
shifts with ridge spreading westward across the south becoming
more elongated from west to east across the south. Overall this
will maintain a moist summertime air mass with daily convection
focused along Piedmont trough inland and sea breeze and land
breeze closer to the coast periodically enhanced by mid to upper
level shortwave energy riding through. Temperatures each day
will be in the lower 90s for highs and lows in the 70s at
night.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through 00Z Monday, although restrictions are likely at each
terminal though at some point due to periodic showers/storms/low
clouds. To start the period think the best chance will be
inland at KLBT/KFLO due to showers/storms moving in from the
southwest and/or developing along the decaying sea breeze. Later
tonight convection is progged to develop near the coast and
could impact KMYR/KCRE/KILM while additional showers and
possible storms along with low clouds possibly impact KLBT/KFLO
until even after daybreak Monday. More showers/storms are then
likely to occur area-wide Monday afternoon, generally working
their way inland through the afternoon along the sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...South to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are
expected over the coastal waters, with 3 ft seas this evening
increasing to 3 to 4 ft starting tonight.

Monday night through Friday...
Bermuda high will maintain persistent southerly flow spiking up
each afternoon to 15 to 20 knots. Seas will remain 2 to 4 ft
with a typical longer period SE swell around 9 seconds mixing
in through the week. May see a slight rise Mon night and Tues
night with some 5 fters possible in the outer waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RGZ/RH