Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281350
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
950 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A meandering east to west oriented front will meander across the
region thru Wed and will help maintain scattered to widespread
shower and thunderstorms across the area thru Wed. The front
will finally retreat north of the area by Thu followed by a
return to a typical summertime pattern going into the July 4th
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast was tweaked to reflect latest conditions but overall
expectations for the afternoon remain unchanged. Expecting some
redevelopment of showers and storms later with heating of the
day though that may be tempered somewhat due to ongoing but
diminishing clouds and showers this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The next 24 hrs will see a sfc front stalled within an
East-West orientation, in the vicinity of Cape Fear to Florence
SC line, or likely will meander in this vicinity. This means an
area of sfc convergence will exist across much of the ILM CWA
this period with pcpn, via KLTX 88D, already becoming scattered
to widespread in coverage as this morning progresses. Have
indicated a modest chance of pcpn thru the period and may have
to upgrade it high chance or likely before all is said and done.
Plenty of UVVS as embedded weak 5h s/w trofs push across this
period. Also, somewhat in the RR quadrant of a far removed and
exiting 3h Jet to the NE States. Nevertheless, progged soundings
indicate PWS increase to 1.8 to 2.00 inches thruout this
period. Will therefore stay on the high side of QPF, and
possibly even hier as the 88D scope continues to light up.
Shower and Thunderstorm activity could train across the FA this
period. At this point the antecedent dry conditions should help
keep the flood threat to a minimum until areas get well worked
over. The thunderstorm activity will become more evident by
midday and continue into the evening as what little of the the
days heating helps in conjunction with those weak upper s/w
trofs. Will likely have a small diurnal range of temps this
period ie. blanket of clouds and pcpn, a far cry from whats been
occurring.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Not an unusual pattern for the area with a decaying front
meandering across the area along with plentiful moisture in
the column. This will lead to intervals of showers and
thunderstorms really anytime but seemingly more focused on the
afternoon and evening hours. Some drying is noted Thursday as
mid level ridging builds in thus lower pops. As for
temperatures, the cooler airmass moving in today seems
somewhat stubborn to modify and overall are a bit below
climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A typical summer pattern will remain the operative phrase
for the extended period as the Bermuda Ridge builds to the east
with a mid level weakness across the southeast. This leads to
the typical showers and thunderstorms daily across the area.
Another front may make a run for the area late in the period
early next week enhancing things a bit but timing and placement
is always suspect this far out in time. Nothing real distinct
with regards to temperatures a bit above average across the
board which seems quite average these days.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An east to west oriented frontal boundary will meander across
Southeast NC and Northeast SC for the remainder of this 24 hr
TAF Issuance Period. Embedded weak upper level disturbances and
resulting UVVS, combined with the days insolation should make
thunderstorm activity more widespread then Mon, encompassing and
affecting all terminals at 1 point. Have indicated best shot
for tstms during this aftn into the early evening in conjunction
with best diurnal heating and incoming insolation. Winds will
veer to the NE-E 5 to 9 kt after FROPA, SE around 10 kt at the
coastal terminals during the aftn into early evening. May see
reduced vsby to MVFR/IFR in fog across the inland terminals
toward daybreak Wed.

Extended Outlook... Periodic MVFR/IFR conditions from
convection Wed due to a meandering front in the vicinity. VFR
to become more common as convection slowly wanes Wed night
through late Fri due to the front retreating north with weak
high pressure to fill in.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
This next 24 hr period will be ruled by a front that stalls in
an E-W orientation in the vicinity of Cape Fear this morning.
This front may drop/meander south to Murrells Inlet today then
return northward, reaching possibly as far north as Surf City by
daybreak Wed. The sfc pg remains rather benign, with windspeeds
therefore around 5 to 10 kt, possibly 10-15 kt north of the
front. Wind directions will also be dependent on which side of
the front 1 lies. NE-E north of the front...SE- SSE south of the
front. Seas generally from the ESE around 2 ft at 5 to 7 second
periods...and from the E tonight as a dominant 8-9 second
period wave becomes more dominant.

Wednesday Through Saturday...
A weak northeast flow hangs on for a few more hours early Wed
at or below ten knots. Beyond that a southeast flow will develop
and remain in place for several days turning more south to
southwest late in the period. Wind speeds will be around ten
knots at best for most of the period perhaps increasing to a
10-15 knot range late. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet through
the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK


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