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000
FXUS62 KILM 150637
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
137 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build across the area through
Saturday night, with dry, chilly weather continuing. Warming
temperatures and increasing humidity is expected Sunday through
Tuesday ahead of the next big cold front which will arrive
Wednesday. Colder temperatures are again expected late next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1037 mb Canadian high pressure centered across the Ohio Valley
has pushed the chillest airmass of the season into the northern
portions of the nation. Here in the Carolinas this has been
only a glancing blow of cold air, and temperatures aren`t too
far from normal currently. An impressive but moisture-starved
upper disturbance will push across the Carolinas tonight,
helping deliver a reinforcing surge of low-level cool air
southward after midnight. 850 mb temps are only expected to fall
into the -2C to -3C range tonight. With mean surface-to-1000
foot winds remaining around 15 knots and cold advection ongoing,
low-level lapse rates should remain rather steep overnight.
This should keep lows generally in the lower 30s with some mid
30s along the Cape Fear and Grand Strand beaches. Despite many
plants already budding or blooming due to our unusually warm
winter, it`s too early for any official freeze warnings to be
issued.

High pressure across New England on Saturday morning will push
offshore during the day. A ridge axis extending south of the
high will move across the eastern Carolinas Saturday evening.
Weak warm advection should begin aloft, and cirrus clouds from
the subtropical jet will begin to arrive overnight. Good
radiational cooling conditions in the evening should become less
idea overnight, and lows should again fall into the lower to
mid 30s for most areas. The blueberry/strawberry growing regions
across Pender and Bladen counties will almost certainly see
sub-freezing temperatures both tonight and Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak return flow develops early Sunday as high pressure shifts
farther off the coast, but overall winds will be light and variable.
Expect warming temps, but a few other features will influence the
weather, as well. A coastal trough develops extending up from the
GA/SC coast at the same time a mid to upper level disturbance moves
across the Southeast.  A potent upper level jet will also be running
across the SE. This will all help to produce increasing clouds and
chances of pcp on Sunday. By Sun evening, a shortwave extending down
from the north will clear the coast leaving a more zonal flow across
the Carolinas heading into Monday, but the pesky coastal trough will
still be in the picture and this will maintain clouds and possibly
some light pcp, mainly along the coast. Temps should be closer to 60
on Sun and into the 60s on Mon. The increased cloud cover Sun night
will keep temps up closer to 40 inland and mid 40s along the coast
Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By Tues, the next system will be marching across the Mississippi
Valley with digging mid to upper trough helping to produce a deep SW
flow over the Carolinas. Initially, we may see the coastal
trough lingering, but it should blow north with deep southerly
flow drawing up plenty of warm and moist air ahead of an
approaching cold front. This will produce plenty of clouds and
increased chc of showers across the area through Tues. As cold
front reaches the area late Tues into Wed, the potential for iso
tstms may come into play, but overall the convection should
weaken as it moves east toward the coast Tues night into Wed.
The sfc feature should move south through Wed with cooling
temps, but clouds and rain should linger into Thurs behind the
front as deep W-SW flow remains aloft. The mid to upper trough
should push far enough south and east to clear out the Carolinas
late Thurs into Fri as cold and dry high pressure builds in.
Temps should be well above normal Mon and especially Tues in
deep WAA, but will cool through mid week becoming well below
normal by Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions for the next 24 hrs. Mid-level s/w trof pushing
across the Eastern Carolinas attm, will progress off the Coast
and further away from the US Mainland by daybreak. At the sfc,
a tightened pg will yield NE winds at 10 to 15 kt this morning.
The sfc pg will relax this aftn and evening as an elongated
center of high pressure extends across the Carolinas from the
NE. No cloudiness issues as flow aloft becomes NW, which in
turn, will scour out any moisture that makes it across the
Appalachians.

Extended Outlook...High pressure with mainly VFR conditions expected
through the weekend. Flight restrictions are possible during the
mid-week period of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
1037 mb high pressure across the Ohio Valley will push east into
New England tonight. A reinforcing surge of north-northeasterly
wind is expected to spread south across the area overnight,
increasing our 15-20 knot winds to 20-25 kt. The Small Craft
Advisory will remain in effect into Saturday morning to account
for this surge and for increasing wave heights expected to
develop. The ridge axis extending south from the high will move
across the Carolina coastal waters Saturday night with our wind
speeds diminishing to less than 10 kt. All models are in very
good agreement with this scenario and confidence is high.

Winds may be quite variable but weak on Sun as a coastal trough
develops. The seas will be down below 3 ft. The coastal trough will
linger into Mon and gradient should become more pinched Sun night
into Mon and may produce a spike in winds, but the greater increase
in both winds and seas will come late Mon into Tues as southerly
flow develops. Seas should increase into SCA thresholds by Tues aftn
in S-SW winds up to 20 to 25 kts ahead of approaching cold front.
The cold front will move through on Wed dropping farther south into
Thurs. The winds and seas may drop briefly as cold front moves
through, but strong northerly flow on the back end will produce a
greater rise in seas Wed night into Thurs, possibly up to 7 to 9
ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/MBB/RGZ