Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 081949
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther offshore into midweek, bringing
warmer temperatures and increasing moisture. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase Thursday with some stronger storms
possible ahead of a cold front. Dry high pressure will return
Friday through this weekend, with seasonable temperatures
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will shift farther off the coast maintaining a
S-SW return flow. A minor perturbation riding over the upper
ridge will bring some high clouds into tonight and then a warm
front will lift north with mainly a mid level deck into our area
into Tues with pcp mainly remaining just west of our area.
Increasing moisture with some clouds and dewpoints rising into
the 50s will help keep overnight lows in the 50s tonight. Highs
on Tues will be affected a bit by cloud cover, but WAA will push
temps well into the 70s. High temps will peak early aftn along
the coast before the sea breeze kicks in and cuts down the temps
mid to late afternoon. The SW flow will increase and could keep
sea breeze a bit more pinned closer to the coast than on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather this period, as sfc high pressure positions offshore
and upr-level shortwave energy and higher deep-layer moisture
stay off to the north. Cannot rule out a sprinkle over far
interior areas, but no measurable rain is forecast. Mostly
cloudy skies with high temps averaging in the mid/upr 70s both
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Previous forecast remains on track for the long term period. A
potent upr-level trough and associated sfc cold front approach
the area Thursday, with PoPs now categorical as guidance
continues to be in good agreement on the timing of these
features. Will need to monitor the potential for strong to
severe storms Thursday due to favorable parameters and timing,
with SC appearing to have a slightly greater potential at this
point. Main threat is damaging wind gusts in this high shear,
low CAPE setup. Drier then for Friday into the weekend as sfc
high pressure builds into the area, but temps remain near to
slightly above normal on average for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. High pressure moving offshore today will bring southerly
winds during the afternoon around 5 knots, slightly higher and
more onshore along the coast where a sea breeze will develop.
VFR with light S-SW flow tonight and some higher clouds moving
in. Clouds will thicken and lower down to 10-15000 ft ceilings
into Tues with winds kicking up out of the SW and becoming
gusty. Slight possibility of fog tonight, mainly CRE.


Extended Outlook... Dominant VFR expected to persist through
daytime Wednesday. Periodic flight restrictions possible ahead
of the next frontal system late Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...
High pressure will continue to move farther offshore tonight
into Tuesday with a gradual increase in S-SW winds. Overall,
quiet marine conditions will persist. Expect winds in the 10 to
15 kt range, but some higher gusts especially Tues afternoon
near shore with sea breeze enhancing the onshore flow. Seas will
increase ever so slightly through Tues aftn but will remain 3 ft
or less.

Tuesday Night through Saturday... High pressure off the Southeast
coast will retreat to near Bermuda later this week as low pressure
moves from the Ozarks Tuesday night into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night. A cold front extending southward from the low will move
eastward, reaching the coastal Carolinas Thursday evening. Southwest
winds winds will gradually increase in the days ahead of this front,
easily reaching 25 knots during the day Thursday. There is a
reasonable potential gusts will reach gale force (34 knots) at times
Thursday afternoon and evening, and we`ll continue to advertise
these adverse weather conditions in the forecast and the Hazardous
Weather Outlook product. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to
severe, will develop in the warm and unstable air ahead of the front
Thursday. Shower potential will end quickly as the front shifts
offshore Thursday night, with dry weather and slowly decreasing
offshore winds expected Friday into Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...TRA/RGZ


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