949
FXUS63 KGLD 250922
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
322 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms in
  northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska Saturday afternoon and
  evening.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible in northeast
  Colorado Saturday afternoon where fuels remain susceptible to
  wildfires.

- Warm and active pattern is expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Zonal flow tonight with a weak shortwave moving through. Models
only hinting at a light shower this evening, but with dew points
in the 20s and 30s doubtful will see any kind of precipitation
reaching the ground. Otherwise, expecting some passing clouds
with the disturbance and lows in the 40s.

On Saturday, flow will transition to southwest ahead of a broad
trough that moves through in the afternoon and evening. Surface
low will deepen in northeast Colorado in the afternoon, with
warm front lifting north across the area and dry line pushing
east into the Colorado/Kansas border area. Best chances for
thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon will be near the surface low
in Colorado. Models still split on whether or not convection
will initiate on the dry line, with the NAMnest the most
aggressive as usual. Should storms get going the environment
further east would be supportive of supercells with large hail,
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. This threat will be
maintained into the evening hours in the eastern six counties.
Further west behind the dry line, there will be near critical to
critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon then widely
scattered high based storms with a damaging wind threat as the
cold front moves through during the evening. Precipitation
should be done by 06z for the entire area. High temperatures
will be in the 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another shortwave trough moves across on Sunday. However, post
frontal environment will have only limited moisture and
instability. Expecting only widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms by the afternoon with best chances in northern
areas closest to the track of the upper shortwave. No severe
storms are expected at this time. Storms should fade relatively
quickly Sunday night. Highs will be in the 70s and lows in the
40s.

Monday will see a bit of a pattern change with an upper ridge
building over the northern Rockies and northwest flow downstream
over the central plains. Low level moisture return and
instability will be very limited, and with no clear sign of a
disturbance in the flow aloft no precipitation is expected.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Monday
night in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Monday, an upper-level ridge will move in to the region from the
west and push out the remaining trough to the east. This ridge will
dominate the period through early Thursday, bringing warmer
temperatures and diurnal pop-up showers and storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. The showers and storms during this period are generally
expected to be scattered in nature, although severe weather cannot
be ruled out due to fairly strong shear. PoPs range around 20-40 in
the eastern and northern CWA, tapering off in the southwest.

Thursday, an upper-level low pressure system is showing up near the
Great Basin/Four Corners region. Ensembles and diagnostic models are
all showing this feature, which could bring our next chances of
organized, potentially severe, convection. Ahead of the convection,
starting some time Wednesday, the LLJ looks to start kicking up and
will start shoveling moisture into the region. The LLJ looks to
continue for about 48 hours, until the low level system moves
through. This increased moisture is expected to increase PWATS to
well over an inch. Combined with effective shear of 35-50 kts,
1,500+ J/kg CAPE, low LCLs and moderately slow storm motions, all
hazards are possible including flooding. Confidence at this point is
low (~10-15%) that severe weather will occur, but pinpointing a time
and place for severe weather is impossible this far out. Thursday
and Friday evenings will both have chances at severe weather.

There is a chance (~20%) that we will only see some showers or weak
storms on Thursday and Friday. This would occur if the increased
cloud cover kept temperatures cooler than forecast, which would
greatly reduce our instability.

Temperatures will generally range from the mid 70s to upper 80s
throughout the period and lows will cool into the upper 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 959 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
look to veer through the forecast, beginning south-southwest
10-15kts and increasing 15-30kts and the potential to 40kts
through 00z sunday. around 00z, southwest 10-15kts shifting
northwest by 03z around 10kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
southeast 5-15kts through 01z Sunday. Gusts 25-30kts possible
from 14z-23z. From 01z Sunday onward east-northeast around
10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN