Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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207
FXUS63 KGLD 200835
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Large scale ridge remains in place across the Plains, with main
monsoonal plume further northwest than it has been the last 3 days.

Regarding thunderstorm chances: Mean upper level jet stream and axis
of better deep moisture is well northwest of our CWA and
subsidence/much more stable air is in place. An axis of 1500 J/KG ML
CAPE may develop near the surface trough in eastern Colorado, but
lack of organized forcing and a strong CAP will likely preclude any
thunderstorm development this afternoon and tonight. A few models
show activity in the higher terrain in CO spreading east, but
quickly falling apart before reaching our far northwest CWA. Some
models are showing a slightly better precip signal by late Thursday
afternoon in far western Yuma county. Concerns with CAP strength and
unfavorable track from region of initation lowered confidence enough
to hold off on introduction of thunderstorms.

Regarding temperatures/Heat Advisory: There are some questions to
location of possible pre frontal trough axis near our north, but
even then we are in line for another day of 100+ degree temps, and
Tds should remain near our above advisory criteria in our
north/northeast. Heat advisory criteria is already occurring, with
temp trends faster/higher than yesterday. Models are actually
showing a slight upward trend in temps aloft, so we may be a few
decrees warmer Thursday than today. Overnight lows are remaining
very warm in similar locations, and heat index values at night might
not drop below 75 for man locations in our east. After coordination
the decision was made to extend current advisory (same locations)
through tonight and into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Sunday and Monday: Lingering theta-e boundary lifts northeastward as
high pressure builds into the Plains. Chc PoPs are in the forecast
for Sunday afternoon as thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary through the afternoon and evening. The environment will have
enough instability for a few stronger storms and although severe
storms cannot be completely ruled out, the environment is not the
most favorable. CAPE will range from 800 to 1500 J/Kg with a nearly
non-existent shear profile both in the 0-1km and 0-6km layers.
Severe thunderstorm parameters are ever so slightly better on Monday
with CAPE approaching 1800 J/Kg and deep layer shear less than 30
knots. Slgt chc PoPs are in the forecast Monday mainly during the
early to mid-afternoon time frame. High temperatures both days will
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday through Thursday: H5 high pressure influences the region and
afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the lower to middle 90s. The
CWA will remain relatively far removed from the synoptic flow
pattern during this time period, reducing available forcing and thus
inhibiting widespread thunderstorm activity. Slight chc PoPs are in
the forecast each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday and will
primarily be driven by the presence of weak H7 lee troughs moving
out of east-central Colorado. Instability will be in place; however,
severe indices are weak given the current guidance and tend to favor
stronger storms that strengthen briefly to near-severe criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Central
high plains will be under a strong ridge, with thunderstorms
riding around it, but both terminals expected to remain dry.
Outflow boundaries may temporarily result in changes of wind
directions and speeds, but primarily will be out of the south to
southwest at 10-15 kts, with a few higher gusts Thursday
afternoon with deep mixing.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024



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