Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280954
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
354 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WEATHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST. LARGE...STRONG AND SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW IS NOW SPINNING OVER NEVADA. SUBTROPICAL IS GETTING
WRAPPED AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT THE JET LEVEL. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF
WITH THE NAM/SREF THE WORST. THE NAM...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING
THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS ALL
DID ABOUT THE SAME ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD BUT TENDED TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOL.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING ANY FOG THIS MORNING IS THE
NAM. HRRR/RAP ARE NOT SHOWING ANY FOG. IT LOOKS LIKE IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS IT WILL BE MOSTLY STRATUS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT HAVING A WINDY DAY. DESPITE THE RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN

THE MODELS HAVE HAD A LITTLE DIFFICULTY WITH THE MAXES. THEY HAVE
TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COOL. BASED ON THE INITIAL ANALYSIS AND
RECENT TRENDS KEPT THE CURRENT MAXES WHICH ARE ABOVE GUIDANCE.
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE LIFT IS WEAK...THERE LOOKS TO BE AN EML IN
PLACE...AND ELEVATED CINH IS VERY HIGH. SO WILL KEEP A CONTINUED
DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE EXPECTED GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL GET NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM WHICH MAY CAUSE
THEM TO UNDERDO THE WINDS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

MODELS CONTINUE THE SLOWING TREND OF INCOMING SYSTEM. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE STILL IN PLACE BUT AS BAD AS BEFORE. THE GFS
REMAINS THE FASTEST WHICH MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY SINCE THE FASTEST JET WINDS ARE NOW ON THE FRONT OF
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...A MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT AND
THE GEFS AGREE ON A SLOWER...FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH COMING IN. THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT LINES UP WELL WITH
THE ECMWF...NAM AND SREF. THE CANADIAN REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NAM A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF.

MAIN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCES REMAINS OUT TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RATHER INTENSE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVES IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE LIFT...MODELS HAVE CONFINED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
SO REDUCED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

MAIN LIFT AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT. A LOT IS GOING ON DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COMES FROM THE WEST AND THEN ANOTHER ONE AS
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH. WHEN THIS LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS IS WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALSO A COUPLE OF JET
STREAKS OR EVEN A POSSIBLE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE MOVES ACROSS
DURING THE NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THE CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR THE NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE
WARRANTED BASED ON THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND SREF/GEFS PROBABILITIES
SUPPORTING THAT LIFT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A HINT IN THE OUTPUT THAT
MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION BE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. WITH THE PWATS FROM 1 TO 1.25 WHICH IS NEAR 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIFT...MODERATE
TO MAYBE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE DURING THIS TIME.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING LIFT AFFECTS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHEAST...WILL BE AROUND IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A RATHER STRONG JET/LEFT
FRONT OF JET MOVING IN DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ALSO
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE. THETA-E LAPSE RATES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER FELT IT WAS GOOD ENOUGH TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY
POSITIVE TILT TO THE FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
TRI STATE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AREA.  THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH SOME AVAILABILITY OF CAPE IN THE PROFILE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
HIGHER CAPE VALUES...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...CAPE WILL
DIMINISH ALOFT AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REDUCE OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY ONCE THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL STATUS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND
GLD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEARING SATURATION
FOR A SHORT PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER AREA...BUT WITH RH VALUES ACROSS THE REGION BEING FORECAST
IN THE UPPER 80% RANGE WITH SOUTH WINDS STAYING AROUND 10 KTS...AM
NOT CONFIDENT IN FOG FORMATION. HAVE KEPT A FEW002 MENTION AT GLD
AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER 16Z...EXPECT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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