Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 102125
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...very dry and sunny
conditions persist for all areas. Temperatures are ranging in 60s
with dewpts low and ranging from the single numbers above/below
zero mainly west....to the teens/low 20s central and eastern
areas. Winds have been fairly steady from the WNW...but speeds
have varied thru the day from 10-30 mph.

This conditions had created danger Fire Wx conditions over the
area this afternoon...but have subsided with winds slowly
diminishing. Have thus cancelled the Red Flag warning for today.

Going into tonight...clear skies with diminishing winds will
afford the region overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper
20s...with some locales in the far near 30F.

For monday...another dry day is expected for all areas. WNW flow
aloft. A shortwave will move down the east side of the upper
ridge by the afternoon hours. winds potentially mixing to the
850-700 mb range will give the region gusty conditions at least in
the 30-40mph. Downslope conditions again will provide for low RH
readings to encompass the CWA. Lowest readings at this time will
occur along and west of Highway 83...prompting the issuance of
another Red Flag warning there...with a Fire Wx watch for the
remainder of the CWA. Looking for worst conditions to ensue from
18z-00z before tapering off. Other zones may/may not be added to
the current Red Flag product...to which the next shift will have
to evaluate.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

For the extended period...thru Friday the models remains consistent
with amplified H5/7 ridge over the western portion of the country
with upper low/trough combo over the eastern portion of the country.
During this time frame...a couple quick moving shortwaves and their
associated surface frontal boundaries will traverse the Central
Plains...then shift east into the circulation of the upper
low/trough. With the region being so dry over the past several
days...models keep any potential moisture with these close to the
parent circulation well east of the CWA...thus dry thru Friday.

Going into Friday night and on through the upcoming weekend...a
couple successive shortwaves will move into the Pacific NW...and
across the Rockies into a more flattened H5 ridge. The track of
these systems will carry them north of the CWA...with no expected
precip to affect the region.

With the dry conditions expected...decent surface gradient will
accompany the passage of the shortwaves midweek...which will provide
the potential for windy/breezy conditions.

The persistent downslope WNW upper flow and associated surface WAA
will give the entire CWA above normal numbers thru the forecast
period. Daytime highs will range in the upper 40s thru the 50s with
overnight lows mainly in the 20s. The passage of the midweek
shortwaves will allow for re-enforcement of colder air over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1024 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions for both taf sites with a SKC-FEW200 mix. Winds
will meander at both sites from NW currently to W by 00z tonight
then back to NW by 16z-17z Monday. Speeds generally 10-15kts...
with gusts to 20-30kts before 22z this afternoon...and after 16z-
17z Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions will persist across the
area thru the remainder of the afternoon hours. Winds have
subsided in most locales below criteria...but very low RH
readings remain.

On Monday critical and near critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the region. The best chance for critical fire
weather conditions to be met will be mainly from along and west of
Highway 83. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ to 5 PM MST /6 PM
     CST/ Monday for KSZ001-013-027>029-041-042.

     Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ002>004-014>016.

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Monday for NEZ079.

     Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JN



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