Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1138 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Issued at 634 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Starting to see convective development occur across portions of
the cwa. Forcing for ascent rather weak,but with pocket of weakly
capped elevated instability it looks like it is enough to spark a
few showers and storms. Focused pops mainly along axis of greatest
instability, but cant rule out a stray sprinkle making it as far
north and east as MCK. Based on all available data, these showers
should linger through the morning. Coverage will be spotty, so not
expecting a large impact this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 353 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Main forecast issues will be continued heat and thunderstorm
chances. Satellite continuing to show an amplified flow from the
Pacific into North America. Features did show a slight westward
shift over the last 24 hours. Currently a surface trough bisects the
area from southwest to northeast.

At jet level...models started out well. At mid levels...the Canadian
and Gfs followed by the Nam were doing the best on the position and
strength of the mid/upper level ridge over the country. The Sref
appears to be doing the best at the surface. The Gfs/Canadian/Sref
were look to be doing the best on the low level thermal pattern.

Today/tonight...Looks like at this time that no convection will be
ongoing over the area but will have to continue to watch for the
rest of the night. Heat will continue. New temperature forecast,
close to the previous one, combined with the expected dewpoints will
mean that current Heat Advisory continue through early this

Surface trough mentioned above moves southeast out of the area
and/or washes out. Next one redevelops to the west of the area
during the afternoon and then moves across the area during the
night. Complex shortwave trough begins to affect the area this
afternoon into the overnight hours. The combination of these two
feature will keep convection moving steadily east through the night
which matches well with the previous forecast. However, there is
above average uncertainty on how this will progress with the model
output, especially from the convective allowing models, differing on
coverage and location of convection during this time.

Saturday/Saturday night...Above mentioned surface/shortwave trough
combination looks to keep thunderstorms going through the morning.
During the morning into the afternoon the surface trough/cold front
slows down as the shortwave deepens and also slows down. Initial
cause of this slowdown will be continued hot temperatures and higher
relative humidities in the eastern portion of the area for one more
day. However, models disagree on how hot it will get in not only the
eastern portion of the area but the entire area. Tended to go in the
middle of the two extremes of the guidance.

As a result of this and collaboration with my neighbors, extended
the Heat Advisory for Red Willow County down to Gove County along
with Norton and Graham counties from early this evening into early
Saturday evening.

Because of this slow down the next affect will be increased
thunderstorm chances across the southern and eastern locations of my
area. This activity slowly moves east through the overnight

Sunday/Sunday night...It will be close but there still may be some
lingering thunderstorms through mid morning. Behind the front,
temperatures will be cooler but still hot, upper 80s into the middle
90s. Upslope winds spread across the area through the rest of the
day with the next in a series of shortwave troughs moving through
during the late afternoon and night. At the same time, a right rear
quadrant will be near the northern portion of the area from late in
the afternoon into the overnight hours. As a result another round of
thunderstorms will move across the area with the best chance during
the night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Long term will begin with ridging beginning to take shape over the
Four Corners region and general troughing in the middle and upper
Mississippi River valley on Monday. A series of H5 shortwave
troughs will move from northwest to southeast Monday through
Wednesday along the outer northeastern fringes of the ridge. This
will slightly enhance the afternoon PoPs on Monday and especially
on Tuesday when a stronger shortwave pushes across the CWA. The
mean flow aloft during the Monday/Tuesday time frame will be west
to northwest. This will shift to more of a westerly flow as we
head into Wednesday due to a weakening of the western ridge over
the southwestern States. Cross mountain flow and lee troughing
will likely develop toward the end of the period, leading to a
continued unsettled pattern with daily afternoon thunderstorm

Temperatures during the early extended period will be around or just
above the seasonal average as the western high pressure influences
the region, especially the western/southwestern portions of the CWA.
Toward the end of the period, I expect afternoon highs to be right
around the seasonal average of upper 80s to lower 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

With warm and humid airmass and periods of weak forcing...overall
confidence in forecast specifics fairly low. A few thunderstorms
will be near KGLD around 01z...with second round of elevated
storms possible after 6z at MCK. Confidence too low to bring down
any flight categories and if storms do bases will be
at or above 050.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002-014-028.

NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ081.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079-



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