Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201718
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1018 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Increased winds further for the late morning and early afternoon
based on latest wind reports. The CAA behind the cold front has
allowed the strong low level jet to mix down earlier than
expected. This has caused stronger winds to occur earlier in the
day. Based on latest wind reports and soundings, the next two the
three hours should be the peak for wind speed, with gusts still
expected to decline in the afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 811 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Increased winds for the afternoon based on mixed layer winds. The
strongest winds will be around noon, with gusts of 45 MPH for Kit
Carson/Sherman counties and surrounding locations. During the
afternoon the winds across the Tri-State Area will gradually
decline as the low level jet overhead weakens and shifts east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Today-tonight...upper trough expected to be over the area this
morning denoted by north-south oriented band of clouds in the 850-
500mb layer. Could see a few sprinkles from this for a few hours
after sunrise otherwise it will be out of the area around or shortly
before noon. The rest of the day will be sunny. Northwest winds of
20 to 25 mph with higher gusts will spread across the area from west
to east bringing in much drier air. Afternoon temperatures in the
low to upper 60s expected. For tonight generally clear. With dry air
and light winds over the area lows should reach the mid 20s to low
30s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...forecast area under west-southwest flow
aloft with 850mb temperatures warming about 11F to 12F across the
area compared to Monday. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
looks good and would set numerous records for the date (see climate
section below). Low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...some cooler air moves into the area from
the north and northeast with mid 60s to low 70s expected. These
readings are still at least 20 degrees above normal. Low
temperatures in the low to upper 30s, about 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Thursday-Friday: GFS/ECMWF are in general agreement on H5 pattern,
showing negatively tilted open shortwave trough moving over our
CWA, with several strong lobes of vorticity across our north. H7
low becomes broadly closed off, and current GFS/ECMWF are weaker
than current GEM and old ECMWF of 24hr ago. Confidence is still
high in precipitation (particularly north), and what should be a
clean rain to snow transition. ECMWF is a little faster with cold
front and may have temps falling in the afternoon and an earlier
change over. Precip is shown to be light to moderate, and system
is fairly progressive so accumulation potential is somewhat
limited compared to the heavier amounts shown 24hr ago.

While current consensus and conservative timing of change over may
only support 0.5-1", adjusting latest QPF trends for an earlier
transition to snow could support upwards of 3" (advisory) in our
north. Warm ground temps will play a role in melting snow that
falls and potential for blowing snow off ground, so that does
limit confidence on potential impacts. At the same time winds
increase sharply behind front and if this coincides with any
falling snow, then blowing snow would occur. Visibility
restrictions would play more of a role if this coincides with
moderate pockets or bands of snow (can`t rule this out).

Saturday-Sunday: Models show west to southwest flow redeveloping,
however heights aloft do not completely recover and a series of
shortwave troughs moving across Northern Plains reinforce
lingering quasi-stationary front near our CWA. Lee trough
attempts to develop towards our southwest, but there isn`t a lot
of consistency on the surface pattern due to this more
active/progressive pattern aloft. Result should be that temps
linger near seasonal levels at least, and I could see periods
where current highs are actually too warm if low clouds persist
north of this front. There are occasional precip chances with
progressive shortwave troughs, particularly on Sunday with a
stronger shortwave trough passage. There is not a lot of
consistency on evolution of this feature at this time, or strong
consensus on precip most periods. I kept 20/30 PoPs in place where
current blend/mean places them due to lower confidence on details
at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main issue will be the
strong winds today. Winds are currently at their peak for the day.
The winds will begin to decline in the next couple of hours as the
low level jet overhead shifts east and weakens. Winds will quickly
slow from breezy to light around 0z.

Tonight the winds will turn to the southwest as a surface
high pressure moves through. Behind the surface high the winds
will gradually turn more to the west and remain light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas along and west of highway 83
today from 11 AM MST through 6 PM MST. In this area northwest winds
of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts will combine with relative humidity
values as low as 10 percent.

For Tuesday and Wednesday relative humidity readings will continue to be
very low, at or below 15 percent Tuesday and around 15 percent Wednesday.
Winds however are forecast to be below thresholds needed for a fire
weather highlite.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Record and near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday
February 21st at the following locations:

Goodland...........73 in 1995 and previous years
Hill City..........77 in 1977
McCook.............76 in 1933
Burlington.........72 in 2000
Colby..............74 in 1972 and previous years
Tribune............77 in 1924
Yuma...............72 in 1982

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...99



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