Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 140922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Tonight: Mid/upper level moisture assoc/w shortwave energy
digging SSE through through Idaho at 20Z will overspread the CO
Front Range and High Plains this evening/tonight as the wave digs
SSE through western portions of the 4-corners region. Further
upstream, shortwave energy digging SSE through Alberta/Saskatchewan
this afternoon will rapidly progress SE into eastern MT and the
Dakotas overnight. Some degree of link-age will occur between the
aforementioned waves overnight, resulting in a positively tilted
trough that extends from the Desert SW northeast into the Central/
Northern Plains by 12Z Thu.

Dry adiabatic thermal profiles above H5 (~20 KFT) will saturate
between 00-06Z this evening, presumably in association with some
degree of H5-H25 DPVA /layer lifting/ and increasing upper level
moisture. Thus, overcast cirrostratus should develop by 06Z
tonight. Despite cold advection beneath H5, further saturation is
progged in the H7-H5 layer by 12Z Thu, and guidance is indicating
a potential for very light precipitation (snow) by sunrise,
primarily in eastern CO. Due to the idiopathic nature of H7-H5
forcing and the initial presence of a very dry sub-cloud layer,
confidence is low w/regard to whether or not light snow will be
observed. At this time will indicate a 20-30% chance of light
snow between 09-12Z, generally along/west of the CO border, with
lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday: Overcast skies should abate between 15-18Z, though
low/mid-level cold advection will persist into the afternoon,
perhaps resulting in the development of glaciated diurnal Cu
based at 5-6 KFT agl. Isold sprinkles and/or flurries cannot be
ruled out, though no measurable precip is expected. Expect highs
in the 40s with gusty NW winds sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts
up to 45-50 mph, windiest in eastern CO and extreme western KS.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

There is good agreement between the global models regarding a deep
H5 trough and associated cold front that will traverse the region on
Sunday. A relatively strong theta-e boundary will provide a focus
for light snow to develop along the front as it pushes from
northwest to southeast. Not expecting much in the way of
accumulations as QPF is near 0.01 inch as the boundary moves through
the region. High temperatures on Sunday will likely not climb out of
the 30s across much of the CWA.

For Monday and Tuesday, ridging will influence the region from west
to east. Afternoon highs will rebound back into the 50s as a result
with dry conditions expected both days.

Ridge axis passes to our east as we head into Wednesday with
relatively strong trough approaching the region from the west.
Models sharply disagree both temporally and spatially with this
system, especially as we head into Thursday afternoon. ECMWF remains
more progressive, followed by the Canadian, with the GFS being the
slowest and deepest of the three. Although there are differences in
the guidance, the consensus does agree upon a pattern change that
will likely bring much colder air to the central High Plains going
into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1008 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

MCK and GLD will start out VFR at 06Z with a lowering of the
ceilings expected through the night. MCK is expected to remain VFR
while GLD could see some non-prevailing MVFR conditions between
14-16Z due to lower ceilings. After 16Z, expect northwest winds to
also increase dramatically with gusts in the 30-35kt range through
the afternoon. By 01Z, expect ceilings to be diminishing with the
sky condition becoming scattered along with the winds becoming
light through the remainder of the TAF period.




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