525
ACUS11 KWNS 260122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260122
NEZ000-KSZ000-260315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...Northwest Kansas into southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...

Valid 260122Z - 260315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind continues across
portions of northwest Kansas into southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm
coverage and intensity may increase in the next couple of hours
based on recent observed trends and latest numerical guidance.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES water-vapor and visible imagery continue to
show signs of persistent, broadscale ascent within the left-exit
region of the primary mid-level jet that is nosing into
western/central OK. This persistent ascent has resulted in scattered
thunderstorm development along a cold front across southwest
NE/northwest KS over the past hour. IR imagery and MRMS data have
shown periodic intensification of this activity, and while buoyancy
continues to slowly increase amid northward moisture return, ongoing
thunderstorms across north-central KS may limit addition moisture
return and modulate further destabilization. The expectation for the
next couple of hours is for continued periodic intensification of
this activity with additional development along the front possible.
Thunderstorm clusters should propagate to the east/northeast over
the next few hours with an attendant risk of large hail and severe
winds. This idea is supported by recent HRRR solutions and derived
hazard probability forecasts, which show hail and wind potential
increasing downstream through at least 03 UTC.

..Moore.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39170029 39590046 39890076 40030106 40370103 40750048
            40949980 40989925 40959873 40869839 40589822 40279838
            40019872 39589935 39539947 39229969 39169995 39170029