Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 252234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252233
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6...

VALID 252233Z - 260000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WATCH
6 THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME STRONG
WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION AND WW 6
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWEST /REF MCD 0142 FOR MORE DETAILS/.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN LOGAN
COUNTY IN CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BECOME QUICKLY
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5
DEGREES C PER KM AND MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KM IN CENTRAL TOWARD
NORTHEAST OK WILL STILL SUPPORT PRODUCTION OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD E-CENTRAL OK INTO NW AR...INSTABILITY
BEGINS TO WANE...BUT IS STILL ADEQUATE IN COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEG C PER KM TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL.

OVER THE LAST 30-60 MINUTES DEVELOPING STORMS IN OKLAHOMA HAVE SHOWN
A TENDENCY TO QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 8 DEG C PER
KM...ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED COULD POSE A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE INCREASING...CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WERE
INDICATED PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KINX...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
KTLX VWPS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36869799 37559146 35229142 34549800 36869799



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