548
ACUS11 KWNS 282149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282149
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-282315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...northeast South Dakota and
western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 282149Z - 282315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms in eastern North Dakota could continue to
develop southward with the need for a watch in the short term.  New
storm development is also possible in the next couple of hours
across northeast South Dakota into west central Minnesota, where a
separate watch could be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing across east central ND near and just
ahead of a surface cold front, and downstream from subtle/embedded
speed maxima moving generally eastward over ND.  Given already
minimal convective inhibition and a sufficiently moist environment,
new development appears likely along the south flank of the ongoing
storms, with an eventual storm cluster possible that will move
toward west central MN through late evening.  Observed wind profiles
are not particularly strong in the vicinity of the developing
storms, so a mixed mode of clusters and a few supercells appears
more probable, with the primary threats being large hail and severe
outflow gusts for the next few hours.

Farther south and later this afternoon/evening, more discrete storm
development will be possible across northeast SD in a zone of
deepening cumulus.  Wind profiles will become a little more
favorable for supercells in this area and a more discrete storm mode
is expected initially, so there will be some concern for a couple of
tornadoes.  A separate watch may be needed late this afternoon from
northeast SD into west central MN.

..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46919822 47309810 47519770 47729712 47789667 47429627
            46739583 45999575 45639569 45369572 44969604 44779645
            44649724 44709765 45059796 46069787 46519798 46919822

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN