Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 110916
SPC MCD 110916

Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle into far
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 110916Z - 111045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong-wind gust and/or a brief tornado will
remain possible over the next couple of hours. However, the threat
should remain too localized for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Within a warm/moist confluent low-level regime, a line
of thunderstorms has advanced eastward across the the
central/eastern Gulf Coast this morning. Despite weak low/mid-level
lapse rates, a narrow corridor of surface temperatures in the upper
60s/lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s is yielding around
200-300 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the line in Florida. Additionally,
regional VWP data sampled robust mid-level southwesterlies around 50
kt atop south/southeasterly near-surface flow. In turn, despite
meager buoyancy, favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will
continue to support transient rotating/bowing structures over the
next hour or two. Indeed, at approximately 0900 UTC, KEVX displayed
a clear TDS over Holmes County, associated with an embedded
supercell structure within the broader convective band. The
potential for a brief tornado and/or stronger wind gust should
gradually diminish toward sunrise, as the line becomes progressively
displaced from any substantive surface-based buoyancy.

..Picca/Edwards.. 02/11/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


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