Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271809
ILZ000-MOZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO/IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271809Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WINDS/HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
W-CNTRL MO EWD TO NEAR STL TO S-CNTRL INDIANA. DIURNAL HEATING HAS
LED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FRONTAL ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE OZARKS TO THE S OF
THE FRONT...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS
ON THE SRN FRINGES OF DEBRIS/MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS N OF THE
FRONT...WILL ALL CONTINUE TO YIELD AN UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AFFIRM THIS NOTION...AS INHIBITION IS LACKING WITH
MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z ILX/SGF RAOBS SUGGESTING 1500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. SUCH BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PER AREA VWPS --
AOB 20 KT IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38099435 39869229 40298909 39518784 38658816 37598972
            36809163 36839393 38099435




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