Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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449
ACUS11 KWNS 281944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281944
OKZ000-TXZ000-282215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0355
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 281944Z - 282215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing severe thunderstorms as well as new development
are expected to spread across much of northwestern Texas and into
southwestern Oklahoma through evening, with a threat of tornadoes,
wind and hail. A new tornado watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells currently extends from just
east of Lubbock toward Midland along a dryline. To the east into the
Abilene area, visible satellite shows deepening boundary layer
cumulus where heating is occurring. Just to the north, stable billow
clouds were noted which also corresponds to an area of
backed/easterly surface winds.

Models continue to suggest a large cluster of cells developing ahead
of the western line of storms by about 21Z. These cells would then
spread northeastward.

All modes of severe appear possible in this situation. Cellular
activity may become supercellular with a tornado threat as the
boundary layer shear will be increasing this evening. However,
magnitude of storm interaction is unknown at this time, which could
have a negative impact on tornado potential. Even so, a merging
cluster could still result in one or more severe bows containing
damaging wind and hail.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32779808 32519844 32139917 32070002 32160051 32490079
            32860091 33600065 34419983 34709926 34829842 34769773
            34429701 34059701 33169772 32779808




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