Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251933
KSZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251933Z - 252030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN/CNTRL KS. COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT/DEEPENING
LINE OF TOWERING CU S OF WICHITA...WITH ASSOCIATED TSTMS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING. SFC OBS CONFIRM THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
QUITE WEAK INVOF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY BE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSHEAR IMPULSE MOVING INTO
WRN OK. NEVERTHELESS...THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...YIELDING
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT...WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED TSTM GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

MORE UNCERTAIN IS TSTM INITIATION INTO N-CNTRL/NERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN PRATT AND GREAT
BEND...BUT CINH IS PROBABLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT HERE. HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT
STORM COVERAGE...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39539760 39689641 39319583 38369598 37089620 37099661
            37069711 37049794 37219878 37919933 38989898 39539760



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