Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 221355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221354
ARZ000-OKZ000-221500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221354Z - 221500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS MOVING S-SEWD ACROSS
E-CNTRL OK. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...NOCTURNAL TSTM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE OZARK PLATEAU IS PERSISTING
INTO THE LATE MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL OK. REPORTS OF ISOLATED SVR
WIND GUSTS WERE RECEIVED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS NEAR STILLWATER OK.
ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWED SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
THE INITIAL TSTM CORE...NEW UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR
ALONG THE SRN FLANK AS RICH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E INFLOW IS MAINTAINED
AMIDST A 30-35 KT LLJ OBSERVED IN TLX VWP DATA. THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING
ALSO SAMPLED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH PW NEAR 1.75
INCH...CHARACTERIZING A THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME BACKING/WEAKENING OF THE LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THE NEXT FEW HRS...TSTMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
E-CNTRL OK AND CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR
WIND GUSTS...BUT THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE
ATTM.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35889455 34979501 34589568 34559648 34649687 35419728
            35809725 36079676 36179558 36369476 36179455 35889455




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