Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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796
ACUS11 KWNS 121952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121951
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY...VT...NH...MA...Maine

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 121951Z - 130015Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow with rates of 1.0-1.5 inches per hour
will continue spreading east-northeastward across portions of
eastern New York and New England through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A broad shield of precipitation being enhanced by
elevated warm advection and frontogenesis, well in advance of an
amplifying midlevel shortwave trough crossing the Great Lakes
region, is spreading east-northeastward across parts of the
Northeast. Related ascent extends through sufficiently deep
dendritic growth zones for heavy snow, with heavy snow presently
being reported across portions of eastern NY and southern New
England.

The zone of isentropic ascent and related areas of heavy snow will
continue to spread east-northeastward across the region, with
1.0-1.5-inch/hour snow rates anticipated. Linear extrapolation and
the latest short-range high-resolution model guidance suggest that
the leading edge of heavier snow should enter parts of
western/southern Maine around 21Z, with this activity continuing to
spread east-northeastward into the early evening hours.

Meanwhile, midlevel dry air should continue impinging on the
southern extent of the precipitation shield. This will result in
lessening intensity/coverage of snow across parts of east-central NY
and adjacent southern New England through the early evening, while
heavy-snow potential continues farther north/northeast.

..Cohen.. 02/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   42367096 42457206 43157309 43927394 44747392 44957279
            45127124 45307022 45256915 44846849 44236859 43706998
            42877067 42367096




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