Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 022332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022331
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN ALABAMA....MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

VALID 022331Z - 030130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 11 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW11..WITH THE HIGHEST
NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW11.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  STRONGER ACTIVITY HAS
MOVED OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA OVER THE
PAST HOUR...WITH A LIKELY LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACROSS
PICKENS COUNTY ALABAMA ATTM.  THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STORMS MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG LOW AND DEEP SHEAR.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS WW11...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THIS
LINE SHOULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TOWARD 02-03Z...AND
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKER IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE WATCH.  SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING AIRMASS RECOVERY REMAIN
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE WW...ALTHOUGH THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP IN
THE REGION /LIKELY AFTER 03Z/.

..COOK/THOMPSON.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...
PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32288835 32978855 34028834 35818769 37398695 37928642
            37948557 37798472 37168455 36178467 34758556 33588606
            32798629 32258687 32328780 32288835



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