Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281953
OHZ000-INZ000-282130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IND/SOUTHWEST OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281953Z - 282130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BRIEF...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
A SIMILAR THREAT TO OCCUR WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO SOUTHWEST
OH.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WITH POTENTIAL NEED FOR A
WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW STORMS HAD
DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL INDIANA NEAR AND EAST OF A SURFACE LOW AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST EXTENDING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A LOBE OF ASCENT MOVING ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT THIS TIME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE
12Z ECMWF WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THIS AREA.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED 0-3-KM CAPE OF 150 TO NEAR 200 J/KG ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA CO-LOCATED WITH NEAR-SURFACE VERTICAL VORTICITY
THAT CAN SUPPORT TORNADO FORMATION.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
KT SUGGESTS MULTICELLS AND/OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK MLCAPE MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

LAT...LON   40178634 40198558 39918444 39858415 39638335 39258354
            39148427 39208502 39328557 39678608 40008648 40178634




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