Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 130940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130939
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-131545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Areas affected...for portions of northeast OK...southeast KS...much
of southern MO...and southern IL

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 130939Z - 131545Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates of at or above 0.05 inch per 3 hours
are probable this morning over the MO Ozarks into southern IL.
Farther west over portions of southeastern KS into northeastern OK,
precipitation coverage is forecast to be less widespread but rates
in localized areas may reach 0.05 inch per 3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar-mosaic imagery around 0930 UTC shows isolated to
widely scattered showers from south-central OK northeastward into
the MO Ozarks.  The 06 UTC LMN raob over north-central OK showed a
sub-freezing layer from the surface to 1 km AGL beneath a warm layer
with an 850 mb temperature around 8.5 deg C.  Also noted, the
800-500 mb layer was not saturated but additional moistening in this
layer is forecast and will support 1) a freezing rain thermal
profile and 2) an increase in shower coverage during the valid
period.  Lightning was detected over southwestern MO near KSGF
beginning around 09 UTC.  Further moistening/lift will combine to
promote development of additional isolated thunderstorms--where
rates will be locally enhanced.

The greatest coverage of 0.05-0.15 inch per 3 hour rates is expected
over southern MO/IL.  Lower rates and amounts are forecast across
the OK/KS portion of the discussion area where localized rates of
0.05 inch per 3 hours may occur, primarily after 12 UTC /6AM CST/.

..Smith.. 01/13/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37298878 36849149 36479471 36179661 36469701 36859700
            37219646 37859465 38318930 38468833 38218798 37708817
            37298878




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