Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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450
ACUS11 KWNS 300546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300546
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-300745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TN...FAR SOUTHEAST KY...FAR
SOUTHWEST VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300546Z - 300745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL OFFER CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE PROCESSING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SHOULD STUNT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR.
REGARDLESS...A FEW NARROW CONVECTIVE BANDS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MINIMAL FOR ANY MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST.

..COHEN/HART.. 11/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   35638394 36148477 36878396 36958303 36338256 35638394




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