000
ACUS11 KWNS 232002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232001
ARZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...AR/EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST TX/FAR NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431...433...

VALID 232001Z - 232130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
431...433...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO STEADILY
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHERN/WESTERN AR. THIS INCLUDES
ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL...AND MORE PREVALENTLY...EXPECTATIONS
FOR CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 431/433
CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z/00Z RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF AR AND
NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A WATCH
EXTENSION AND/OR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR /PRIMARILY NORTHERN AR/...STORM
MERGERS/UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS OF 1945Z
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHERN AR. MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN NOTED AT NORTHWEST AR REGIONAL
/XNA-55KT/...FAYETTEVILLE AR /53 KT/...SILOAM SPRINGS AR /53
KT/...AND MUSKOGEE OK /50 KT/. AN EXPANDING SURFACE COLD
POOL/MESO-HIGH IS READILY NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...WITH
DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AR AS OF
19Z. THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPSCALE-GROWING MCS IS VERY
UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90F CONTRIBUTING TO 4000+
J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS...AUGMENTED BY
MCV/REAR-INFLOW STORM-SCALE WINDS /40 KT IN LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL PER
TULSA WSR-88D VWP/ WILL SUPPORT INCREASING QUASI-LINEAR
ORGANIZATION. AS THESE STORMS SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...CORRIDORS
OF WIND DAMAGE SEEM LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK INTO AR...AND LIKELY NORTHEAST TX/POSSIBLY NORTHWEST LA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 07/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34879665 36169589 35699462 35679370 36279279 36449181
            36389092 36199005 35159027 34299211 32589409 33349668
            34879665