000
ACUS11 KWNS 221235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221234
MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-221400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Areas affected...Eastern OH...northern WV...and southwestern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221234Z - 221400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Long-lived MCS will likely persist into southwestern PA
and northern WV this morning, though the damaging-wind threat
appears too marginal for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS that formed overnight in IL/IN
continues to move east-southeastward at 35-40 kt across eastern OH
as of 1230z.  The downstream environment is only marginally
unstable, and there are enough clouds to somewhat slow surface
heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates.  Also, vertical
shear is on the lower margins for organized severe storms (effective
bulk shear around 25 kt).  These aforementioned factors will tend to
limit the damaging-wind threat for the next couple of hours, though
isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with embedded
bowing segments accompanied by stronger downdrafts and precipitation
loading.

..Thompson/Edwards.. 07/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38987932 38788004 38968164 39308199 40068132 40658115
            40818084 40898007 40597911 40247877 39477886 38987932