Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271941
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271941Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DMGG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER
PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS...INSOLATION IS SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF
7-8-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THIS CORRIDOR AND ASCENT ALONG A
DIFFUSE/ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE
SUPPORTED RECENT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL PA TO SERN NY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS VIS IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY CU
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DCAPE REACHING AROUND 800-1000 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 15-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA
VWPS...AND WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40247817 40907761 41677586 42627249 42647099 41957118
            40897382 39967691 40247817



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