000
ACUS11 KWNS 202238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202238
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO INTO CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202238Z - 202345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF DEEPENING
CUMULUS ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR STJ TO ALO.  THESE
DEVELOPMENTS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE
LOWER-MO VALLEY.  HERE...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND RELATIVELY
MOIST PBL COINCIDES WITH STEADILY COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES TO
YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AMIDST A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
 SHOULD CONVECTION EVOLVE INTO TSTMS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD/CORFIDI.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39939498 41179452 42199425 42669358 43029268 42409241
            41809260 40629354 39889438 39729476 39939498