Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222252
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA/FAR WESTERN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 497...

VALID 222252Z - 230015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 497 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA/FAR WEST-CENTRAL WI THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. TORNADO WATCH 497 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHWEST IA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA/REDWOOD
FALLS/WORTHINGTON MN TO SPENCER/STORM LAKE IA AS OF 530 PM
CDT/2230Z. INCREASINGLY LINEAR CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN IA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE A DISTINCTLY SEPARATE PRE-FRONTAL BAND /LIKELY RELATED
TO LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND-OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/ CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN IN AREAS W/NW OF THE
TWIN CITIES. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY SURFACE-ROOTED
STORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MN/POSSIBLY FAR-WEST-CENTRAL WI. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
MINNEAPOLIS FEATURES VERY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH STRONG NEAR-GROUND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO
400+ 0-1 KM SRH. FARTHER WEST...A MORE COMPLEX/LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE WITH RELATED DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADO/HAIL RISK WILL
EXIST CLOSER TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING FRONT AS ADDITIONAL CELL
MERGERS/COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT LEADS TO UPSCALE LINEAR CONVECTIVE
GROWTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 08/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   46039487 46089233 44079317 42289314 42479529 44359497
            46039487




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