


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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684 ACUS11 KWNS 092331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092330 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-100100- Mesoscale Discussion 1621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...South-central ND...central SD...and north-central NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498... Valid 092330Z - 100100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated/sporadic large hail and embedded severe wind gusts remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498. While uncertain, there is some potential for eventual upscale growth into one or more clusters into tonight. DISCUSSION...Two disorganized clusters with transient/embedded deeper cores are drifting slowly east-southeastward across the Dakotas and northern NE this evening -- where periodic severe wind gusts and large hail are occurring. Weak large-scale forcing for ascent and strong buoyancy/steep deep-layer lapse rates have generally promoted outflow dominant storms with limited large-scale organization up to this point. Nevertheless, the strong buoyancy and long/generally straight hodographs (around 40 kt of effective shear) will continue to promote severe downbursts/outflow and sporadic large hail with the stronger embedded cores. While the weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective evolution, a gradually strengthening low-level jet may promote eventual upscale growth into one or more organized clusters into tonight. Confidence in this scenario is relatively higher for the southern area of storms currently over southern SD into northern NE -- as the low-level jet may tend to focus over this general region amid slightly stronger deep-layer shear. If this evolution can occur, the risk of severe wind gusts would increase with time, and a downstream watch would eventually be needed. ..Weinman.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 46990014 46129975 45229956 44219951 43219932 41729957 41330009 41310092 41320168 41740205 43040179 44910166 46500184 47180102 47180049 46990014 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN