000
ACUS11 KWNS 222308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222307
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-230100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...NRN MD...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222307Z - 230100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS ALONG
A SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MD AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWS 70 WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG PER KM
NOTED IN RECENT MESOANALYSIS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. SOME
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40317640 40877511 40607446 40307422 39277508 38857606
            39027794 39417823 39687747 40317640