000
ACUS11 KWNS 231722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231721
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-231915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NY TO VT/NH AND MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231721Z - 231915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY INTO VT/NH AND
UPSTATE MAINE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR
IMMINENT/CERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
WARM/DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL NY INTO VT/NH AND
MAINE...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG MLCAPE ALREADY ESTIMATED ACROSS
THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH 80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S
OR NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS. WHILE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CYCLONIC WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BE STRENGTHENING...THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
TEND TO LAG THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. EVEN SO...A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT SEVERE HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/HART.. 07/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   45227080 46546904 46076787 44826876 43407090 43047190
            42657329 43247417 43937352 45227080