Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 190427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190427
NYZ000-190830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO IN NWRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 190427Z - 190830Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/HR WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A BROAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY
SWD WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTYX SHOWS THE W-E ORIENTED
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO AND NWRN NY HAS BEGUN
SHIFTING SWD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN RESPONSE TO VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SLY SHIFT IN THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE AS
BOTH A SFC AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM THE
W. MOST SHORT-TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SWD MOVEMENT. OVER
THE NEXT 4 HOURS...SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR ARE FORECAST
AND THE HEAVY RATES ARE LIKELY ONGOING AT 0420Z GIVEN OBSERVED
LIGHTNING FLASHES /THUNDERSNOW/ NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE LAKE FRONT INDICATE LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE THOUGH 08Z AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE W. THIS MAY CORRESPOND TO AN EVENTUAL DECREASE IN
SNOWFALL RATES.

..GLEASON/SMITH.. 11/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   43657518 43517615 43897630 44077523 43657518




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