Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231335
LAZ000-TXZ000-231700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E-CNTRL AND NE TX INTO NWRN LA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 231335Z - 231700Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.  A MIX P-TYPE WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND FAR NERN TX.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 1330Z SHOWS A DISCONTINUOUS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL AND NERN TX.  KCRS
RECENTLY OBSERVED A FREEZING RAIN RATE IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH/HOUR.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AROUND H7 AND IS IMPLIED VIA CHANGES AROUND THE MELTING LAYER WHEN
COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z FWD RAOBS.  WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER BURSTS OF SLEET WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER N-CNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING.  MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS AREA OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT
OVER N-CNTRL TX MOVING TO THE ENE TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.  THE SRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING.  INTERPOLATED THERMAL
PROFILES FROM THE 12Z AREA RAOBS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE TO THE S OF WHERE SLEET IS FORECAST MAINLY FROM PARTS OF
N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AR.  WET BULB COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL
LIKELY DROP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS A RESULT...FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM E-CNTRL TX
INTO NWRN LA MAY REACH AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS /LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA/.

..SMITH.. 02/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31539711 31989695 32809474 32779399 32369362 31969395
            31259638 31209689 31539711




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