Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 301200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301159
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Areas affected...MS and southeast LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301159Z - 301400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new Tornado Watch will be coordinated within the next 30
minutes for southeast LA into southern and central MS, and perhaps
to include part of northern MS.

DISCUSSION...11Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure
located in vicinity of KLIT with a cold front trailing southward
into northeast LA, and then southward through south-central LA.
Mosaic radar imagery showed strong to severe storms ongoing along
and just ahead of the cold front from in vicinity of the southwest
MS/LA border and southward into south-central LA.  A strong
southerly low-level jet (exceeding 50 kt per area VADs) will
maintain a moisture-rich environment across southeast LA into much
of MS today.  This coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates will
maintain moderately strong instability.  Meanwhile,
south-southwesterly 500-mb flow is forecast to strengthen as an
upper trough shifts east-northeast across the southern and central
Plains.  This will result in vertically veering wind profiles for
organized storms, while backed southeasterly surface winds further
enhance low-level shear for a continued tornado threat spreading
east across the lower MS Valley.

..Peters/Guyer.. 04/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29379128 30559126 32319064 33539076 34079051 34208944
            33918841 33148831 31338857 30708845 30208875 29328906
            29018916 29029085 29379128




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