Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021825
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL PA/NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021825Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. BROKEN LINES OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NY/PA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC STRONG/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
EWD ADVANCING SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
VICINITY SWD INTO NW PA/ERN OHIO. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
80S ACROSS NY/PA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL
CONTINUE WITH MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE
REGION...UPWARDS OF 40 KT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR FAST MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...FAST STORM MOTION AND PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES
MAY ALLOW FOR SPORADIC STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
GREATER HEATING OCCURS IN BROKEN CLOUDINESS. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   43687645 44037562 44337466 44217409 43827367 43397366
            42757386 42047445 40627645 39777803 39637942 39818036
            40448049 41438022 41977968 42497913 43687645



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