Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 252200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252159
MNZ000-WIZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252159Z - 252300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SVR RISK IF ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN
/HENCE LOW WATCH PROBABILITIES/ BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW FAR WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN AND INTO CNTRL WI...DEMARCATED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 70 DEG F ISOTHERM. AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SSEWD INTO S-CNTRL MN. WARM SECTOR BETWEEN
THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES IS UNSTABLE WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. SURFACE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE NEW CONVECTION...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
WEAKENING TRENDS NOTED WITH THE ONGOING STORMS AND FLAT APPEARANCE
OF THE CU FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE EXPERIENCING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNCERTAIN. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45579559 45909570 46079523 44929314 44299195 43619178
            43519248 43699392 44819504 45579559




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