Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281847Z - 281945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
1ZZ NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411




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