Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230351
TXZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/COASTAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 230351Z - 230445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 04Z. A LOCALIZED/RELATIVELY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR TONIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COAST. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SHORT LINEAR SEGMENT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST OF I-35 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AS OF 945PM CST. GENERAL DECREASING
TRENDS IN CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING/STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED...AND A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED GIVEN A
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MEANWHILE...A
SUBSTANTIAL QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE GRAZING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST. SOME SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE MIDDLE/UPPER TX...HOWEVER THE MCS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
OFFSHORE...WHILE OTHERWISE TENDING TO OUTPACE THE CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29599715 30439702 30629609 30239395 29489413 26569649
            27309725 28469606 29599715




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