Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 091923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091923
NJZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-092100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...DE...SRN NJ...FAR SE PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091923Z - 092100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT BALTIMORE
MD SHOWS 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE 1 KM
AGL. THIS WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD PEAK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   39847702 38557834 37857856 37457799 37547647 39327491
            40007538 40147621 39847702



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