Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271609
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-271745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/E CENTRAL IL/NRN INDIANA/NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271609Z - 271745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE INDIANA/NWRN OH
VICINITY.  DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LOCALLY WITH
STRONGER CELLS...WHICH WARRANTS WW CONSIDERATION WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WV LOOP REVEALS A VORT MAX CROSSING LK MI INTO W
CENTRAL LOWER MI ATTM...VEERED/UNIDIRECTIONAL -- BUT INCREASING --
FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS OBSERVED JUST S OF THE NEWD TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...RESULTING IN A WIND PROFILE FEATURING AMPLE SPEED SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.

HEATING OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS/ THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES TO AROUND
1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN TCU/A FEW CB WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR.
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO INCREASE/ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL MAY
REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE PRIOR TO 27/17Z.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   41648351 41218338 40108486 39548748 40328808 41388749
            42028618 42898511 43298415 43538376 43948267 42918220
            41648351



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