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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 202200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202159
MIZ000-202300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS
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22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189...

VALID 202159Z - 202300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 2146Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QLCS
EXTENDING FROM APPROXIMATELY 60 ESE ANJ TO 20 NW JXN WITH A SYSTEM
MOTION OF 265/35 KT.  THUS FAR...THE MOST PROGRESSIVE PORTION OF
QLCS HAS BEEN LOCATED TO THE N OF MBS WHERE A MORE EXPANSIVE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION HAS DEVELOPED...LIKELY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE FORMATION OF A REAR INFLOW JET.  FARTHER TO THE
S...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...PERHAPS AS A
RESULTING OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS
E-CNTRL AND SERN LOWER MI REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH 50 KT WSWLY WINDS OBSERVED AT 4 KM AGL...PER DTX VAD.

RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ALONG THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE QLCS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND S OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO PERSIST WHERE STORMS CAN PERSIST.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42298491 43728407 44508340 44498318 43828258 42788254
            42168291 41848307 41978390 42068466 42298491