Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 012207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012206
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012206Z - 020000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS IT CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ENCOURAGE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. INDEED...SIGNS OF THIS ARE
ALREADY APPEARING IN A SLOWLY ORGANIZING LINE SEGMENT NORTH OF ST.
LOUIS. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STEEP...ENOUGH SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED SUCH THAT AROUND 500-1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AROUND 50 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS AND SOME SMALL
BOWING SEGMENTS...IF CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE CELLS WOULD BE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..PICCA/HART.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38989022 39319034 40118925 40578845 40688682 40638538
            40468497 39968483 39778487 39238494 39028509 38568670
            38268810 38158968 38249001 38989022



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.