Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281647
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-281915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MAINE...NH...VT...FAR ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281647Z - 281915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS IS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AMIDST A BELT OF MODERATE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN
RIM OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING ERN CANADA AND THE NERN
CONUS...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS NEWD INTO CNTRL MAINE.
THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ON THE
SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS IN PROXIMITY
TO THIS ZONE...AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FURTHER INCREASES IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN AROUND 20-30 KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL/WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ENEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNAL SFC
HEATING AND RELATED STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DMGG WINDS.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE LACK OF
STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...AND PRESENCE OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   44027347 44657123 45876880 45836789 45516777 44966796
            43837051 43207210 43387359 44027347



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