Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 262012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262012
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262012Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS /SOME STRONG/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CO FOOTHILLS AS OF 20Z...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER WESTERN CO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY. WHILE SOME INHIBITION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/.
AIDED BY WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THE SCENARIO WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE/MOISTENING AND A POSSIBLY
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA ONLY CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF 25-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVELY MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION/EXTENSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE
RISK. NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...INITIALLY ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE VICINITY...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41990508 42840369 42270226 41190145 39340182 38980377
            39760514 41990508



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