Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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784
ACUS11 KWNS 021351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021350
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN IA AND SRN MN

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 021350Z - 021745Z

SUMMARY...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY FROM ERN NEB
THROUGH CNTRL IA AS OF 14Z WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EXTENDS FROM ERN NEB
THROUGH CNTRL IA. THIS ZONE OF FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD
WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A PROGRESSIVE 150 KT UPPER JET. THE DURATION
OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND IN MOST AREAS WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
ADVECTING NWD THROUGH SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
DURATION WILL LIKELY BE FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN. RAP
PFCS INDICATE 6.5-7 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 700-500 MB...AND SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL REMAIN
LIKELY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NWD INTO NRN IA AND SRN MN LATER THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW...THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN A
DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER NERN KS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35-40+ KT.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   42459216 41989388 40889725 42099802 44139499 44239245
            43329167 42459216




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