Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 092346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092345
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA AND NRN
MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

VALID 092345Z - 100115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF WW 499 INCLUDING SERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA AND NRN MO.
SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH NRN MO WHERE THE TORNADO WATCH
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN
ZONE OF ASCENT NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM SRN NEB...EXTREME NRN KS
INTO NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. MIXED STORM MODES ARE EVIDENT INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING SSWLY LLJ. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
REMAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

FARTHER NORTH...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN
PORTION OF WW 499 INCLUDING ECNTRL NEB INTO WCNTRL IA WHERE STORMS
ARE LIKELY ELEVATED WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO WATCH
MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IN THIS REGION DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39829862 40779556 41069270 40109266 39849569 39229863
            39829862




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