Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222245
KSZ000-NEZ000-230045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS AND EXTREME SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222245Z - 230045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO INITIATE OVER
NWRN KS THIS EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY STORMS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF
TOWERING CUMULUS FORMING ALONG A N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
NWRN KS. THIS ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS MOVING WWD WHERE IT WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND
ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. THIS REGION REMAINS
NORTH OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTH OF THE ZONE OF
STRONGER FORCING ALOFT...WHICH MAY LIMIT FUTURE STORM COVERAGE AND
DURATION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WWD-MOVING
CONVERGENCE ZONE MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE AND AS LLJ STRENGTHENS.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST...SUGGESTING ANY SUPERCELLS
SHOULD TREND TOWARD HP IN CHARACTER. DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED TO A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE SFC LAYER COOLS
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40210062 39320064 38650085 38270149 38640200 40010187
            40290146 40210062




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