Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 292220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292220
MSZ000-LAZ000-292315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MS AND NORTHEAST LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 504

VALID 292220Z - 292315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 504 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLASSIC SUPERCELLS ARE EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL MS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS INCREASING...AND TORNADO WATCH 504 MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN A WEAK-ASCENT
REGIME...FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLASSIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
THE VAD WIND PROFILE AT JAN INDICATES AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR
IN SUPPORT OF CONTINUED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. EFFECTIVE SRH IS
FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 300-400 M2/S2 DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MS...WHILE MARGINAL
TO MODERATE BUOYANCY PERSISTS. RELATED STREAMWISE VORTICITY
ENHANCEMENTS WILL OFFER INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SOME
RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
EASTWARD AS CONVECTION EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATCH AREA.

..COHEN.. 11/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   31679280 33509031 33708887 33268852 32458892 31499128
            31679280



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.