000
ACUS11 KWNS 122215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122214
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NE KS...FAR SE NEB/NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122214Z - 130015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR AS
SCATTERED STORMS FORM THIS EVENING ALONG A SLOWLY SWD-SINKING COLD
FRONT.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE PREVALENT ALONG AND
S OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SDA TO 20 S HLC BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER W-CNTRL KS AS OF 22Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER WITH SRN EXTENT...WITH
THE FRINGE OF 500 MB WINDS AOA 30 KT REMAINING CONFINED FROM THE
KS/NEB BORDER REGION NWD. THIS SHOULD YIELD MAINLY PULSE-TYPE
UPDRAFTS OVER MOST OF KS...WITH PERHAPS A MULTICELL CLUSTER NEAR THE
KS/NEB BORDER CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THIS
CORRIDOR HAS A RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40689633 40729571 40609527 40459500 40089491 39659527
            39399579 38869784 38360003 38400039 38760033 39529989
            40139841 40689633