Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250738
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...FAR ERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250738Z - 251015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-END SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AMIDST SCATTERED CONVECTION
EMANATING N FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST. OVERALL RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITHIN A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. MODEST BUOYANCY ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED IN AREA VWP
DATA WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /AS EVIDENCED IN
WAYNE COUNTY MS/. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS MORNING...LOW/MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME VEERED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING NNE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29879013 31189011 31748956 32258917 32778874 32818818
            32668786 32418780 31928784 31628786 30798812 30368834
            29879013




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