Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 252325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252324
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-260030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Areas affected...Southeastern VT...southern NH...far southern
ME...MA...eastern CT...and RI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252324Z - 260030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A watch downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40 is
unlikely due to an unfavorable airmass.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery as of 2315Z shows a bowing line of
thunderstorms across the lower Hudson Valley of NY moving into the
eastern part of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40. These thunderstorms
have recently (2244Z) produced a measured severe wind gust of 69 mph
at the Montgomery Airport in Orange County NY, along with some tree
damage. As this convection continues eastward along a cold front
into much of the remainder of New England, it is expected to quickly
weaken due to a stable airmass. Southeasterly winds off the Atlantic
across this region have prevented appreciable destabilization into
much of MA/CT/RI/VT/NH, with RAP Mesoanalysis suggesting MUCAPE of
100 J/kg or less downstream of the ongoing convection. While a very
isolated strong to damaging wind threat may persist slightly to the
east of the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch, downstream watch
issuance is unlikely due to the hostile thermodynamic environment.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 02/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   42797276 43677238 43627091 43257041 42537060 41367116
            41217269 42797276



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