Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 282017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282017
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-282215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 282017Z - 282215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TX NWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO THE OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996 MB LOW IN NW NM WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM NE NM SEWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
WEST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TX WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO DESTABILIZATION...THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS NOW GONE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED FIELD
OF CUMULUS ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR LUBBOCK.
CELL INITIATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NNEWD INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN TX PANHANDLE BY 22Z. THE LATEST
WSR-88D VWP AT LUBBOCK SHOWS A 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. THIS WIND PROFILE
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -14C
TO -16C SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL. AS THE
STORMS GROW UPSCALE AND THE DOWNDRAFTS MATURE...WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES IN THE 23Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32550058 32520134 32910236 34230278 34800332 35300350
            36490312 36960250 36880177 36300101 35120042 33749996
            33149993 32550058




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