314
ACUS11 KWNS 301509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301509
VAZ000-NCZ000-301745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...SOUTHERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301509Z - 301745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
NEAR TERM BUT TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN VA AT 15Z...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NC. CLOUD COVER REMAINS EXTENSIVE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000
J/KG/. WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA WERE CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
ABOVE...RESULTING IN 40-55 KT SOUTHERLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BASED
ON MESOANALYSIS AND LATEST VWP DATA FROM AREA WSR-88D RADARS.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND CENTRAL NC
HAVE PRODUCED REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DOWNED TREES...AND
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LIMITED/FILTERED HEATING RESULTS IN MODEST ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION. VEERING 0-1KM WINDS AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL
SUPPORT TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM.
CONVECTIVE AND NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/DIAL.. 09/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   34687835 35507899 36047930 36447954 36957991 37237921
            37247801 37167738 36817702 36497683 35637685 34847710
            34617736 34527777 34687835