000
ACUS11 KWNS 220546
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220546
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-220645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MN/NRN WI/WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428...

VALID 220546Z - 220645Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN MN ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OUT OF WW 428 IN THE NEXT HOUR.  ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK ACCOMPANYING THE STORMS SUGGESTS THAT DOWNSTREAM WW MAY
BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS
MOVING EWD THROUGH WW 428 AT AROUND 40 KT...AND APPROACHING THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WRN LK SUPERIOR...AND THE MN/WI BORDER ATTM.  THE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAKEST CAP PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...WITH INCREASING DOWNSTREAM CINH
LIKELY TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS ENCOUNTER
THE MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  THAT SAID...THE MCS REMAINS
MATURE/WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE LOW NOW MOVING
INTO NWRN MN.  THUS...EXPECT STORMS/SEVERE RISK TO EXPAND E OF THE
WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO -- POSSIBLY REQUIRING NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   48489306 48198944 47388804 46208838 45218979 45089103
            45449405 45709449 46579363 48489306