000
ACUS11 KWNS 070105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070104
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-070500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC...WRN NC AND SCNTRL VA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 070104Z - 070500Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN SC...WRN AND NRN NC AND SCNTRL VA. FREEZING RATES OF
AROUND .05 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING IN
LOCATIONS WHERE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED DRY SLOT
NOSING INTO ERN GA AND WRN SC. UPSLOPE FLOW IS IN PLACE IN THE ERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING LIFT IN A BROAD
CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE
RESULTING SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
WRN AND CNTRL CAROLINAS...MOVING SLOWLY NWD INTO SRN VA LATE THIS
EVENING.

AT THE SFC...TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS FROM NEAR GREENVILLE SC NEWD TO SOUTH OF LYNCHBURG
VA. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC SHOWS AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR
AND JUST ABOVE 850 MB WITH A SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE ABOUT
500 FEET AGL. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SFC WHERE A SHARP INVERSION
EXISTS AND TEMPS ARE STILL JUST ABOVE 32 F. THIS SOUNDING SUGGESTS
THAT ANY POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BRIEF WITH SLEET AND
SNOW THE PREFERRED PRECIPITATION TYPE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.


FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE 00Z SOUNDING AT PEACHTREE CITY GA SHOWS A
WARM NOSE NEAR 850 MB EXTENDING UP TO 750 MB. THIS WARM LAYER LIKELY
EXTENDS NNEWD INTO WRN SC AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD INTO WRN NC
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN IN THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS COOL TO
BELOW 32 F IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL COOLING AND WET-BULBING. FREEZING
RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. FREEZING
RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 03/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34048240 34318293 34728295 35268224 36088091 36697984
            37287892 37517833 37377785 37097767 36637777 35967855
            35377947 34498108 34048240