Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290246
MDZ000-VAZ000-290415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND THE LOWER DELMARVA
PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290246Z - 290415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT ALONG WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
SERN VA AND THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA AS OF 0245Z ALONG/S OF A
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY AS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER WV/SWRN VA APPROACHES THE MCD AREA. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS REGION HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY PRIOR CONVECTION EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON...RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ALONG/S OF THE BOUNDARY MAY
ALLOW FOR NEAR-SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO POSE MAINLY A STRONG/GUSTY
WIND THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM. MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 35-40 KT IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES TO SUPPORT
SOME EMBEDDED ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES OF THE BROKEN LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE LOW...THE TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION IS NON-ZERO GIVEN SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FEEDING
INTO THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AROUND 100 M2/S2
PER 02Z RAP MESOANALYSIS. REGARDLESS...THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THE SMALL SPATIAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE
EXPECTED THREAT BOTH SUGGEST THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY GIVEN
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

..GLEASON/EDWARDS.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37457802 37837741 38177646 38257608 38317504 37117575
            36847641 37127797 37457802



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