Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261749
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261749Z - 262015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE LONGER-LIVED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FROM
SWRN LOWER MI TO E-CNTRL IL. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. VWPS ACROSS THE
REGION SAMPLE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 15-25 KT FROM 4 TO
6 KM AGL...STRONGEST IN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F -- YIELDING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS
EWD...AIDED BY 15-20 KT OF 1-3-KM-AGL FLOW FAVORING EWD SPREAD OF
COLD POOLS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...A MORE
ORGANIZED...FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM WITH A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM
RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   40378738 41898600 43378495 43368347 42798307 41618378
            40478539 40378738



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