000
ACUS11 KWNS 011343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011343
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL NC / S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL VA /
DELMARVA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 011343Z - 011715Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 0.05-0.10 INCH
PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH 16-17Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROKEN-PRECIP SHIELD
ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA FROM N-CNTRL NC NWD IS AOB 32 DEG F
EXCEPT ALONG NEAR SERN VA COAST WHERE THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE
AIR MASS HAS LED TO TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.  THE 12Z GSO RAOB
SHOWED A MELTING LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL NC SHOW ONLY SLIGHT
WARMING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 16Z.  AS A RESULT...A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED.  FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF HIGHER PW PER NC/SERN VA GPS PW DATA WILL ACT
TO SATURATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER DELMARVA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL FAVOR SURFACE TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORT MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE AS THE
LAYER AROUND H85 WARMS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36217980 38407741 39027572 38567514 36897704 35787870
            36217980