Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 281850
SPC MCD 281850
Mesoscale Discussion 0354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281850Z - 282115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across eastern New
Mexico this afternoon. A threat for hail and a few strong wind gusts
will be possible. WW issuance is not expected due to the marginal
nature of the threat.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low in far
southeastern New Mexico with an inverted surface trough extending
north northwestward across eastern New Mexico. Thunderstorms are
developing in the vicinity of Santa Rosa, New Mexico just to the
west of the surface trough where low-level convergence appears to be
maximized. This combined with strong large-scale ascent downstream
from an upper-level low in the Desert Southwest will help storm
coverage to increase across eastern New Mexico this afternoon. The
environment is characterized by strong deep-layer shear (evident on
the Tucumcari WSR-88D VWP), steep lapse rates and enough instability
for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated damaging wind gusts
will be possible with the stronger cores over the next two to three
hours. Instability appears weak enough to keep the threat marginal.
For that reason, WW issuance will probably not be needed.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33650300 33330403 33510503 34350526 35370509 35960472
36200404 36180369 36090335 35580301 34690282 33650300