000
ACUS11 KWNS 030256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030255
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-030730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0855 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NWRN MS...SWRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 030255Z - 030730Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET IN CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS/ WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
RATES OF 0.10-0.25 IN/HR EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AMIDST
AN INCREASING AREAL EXTENT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING.
THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DOWNSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK. THE
SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE AT 02Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR BNA TO MEM
TO LIT. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SWD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND SLIGHT BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS AS A SUBTLE
SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NERN LA/W-CNTRL MS BORDER SHIFTS NEWD. A
PRONOUNCED ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE BELOW 700 MB SAMPLED IN 00Z
BNA/SHV RAOBS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING SHOULD SUPPORT MIXING WITH SLEET AT TIMES. HEAVIER
FREEZING RAIN WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MON MORNING AS
THE DRY SLOT INVOF ARKLATEX SHIFTS EWD.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34919142 35528998 36008859 36338658 36428597 36128594
            35758681 34938862 33559101 33519202 33779228 34269220
            34919142