Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012214
SCZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND W-CNTRL NC / N-CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012214Z - 012315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL OR
MORE INTENSE MULTICELL EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLD HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS OVER THE SC PIEDMONT NWD
INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NC HAVE EXHIBITED MRMS HAIL-SIZE SIGNATURES IN
THE 0.75-1.75 INCH RANGE DURING THE PAST HOUR.  SURFACE CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS CHARACTERIZE
THE AREA AND HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  30-35 KT
6-KM FLOW HAS YIELD DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX MODE OF
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.  WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING...THE RISK
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   34318133 35438206 36418173 36578122 36388090 34358070
            34318133



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