Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021853
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SE MT AND NE WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021853Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD OFF OF HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S ACROSS SE MT INTO
NE WY TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC COLD FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
50S...MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG WERE NOTED ON 18Z MESOANALYSIS.
SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED
HEATING. ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN SOME SUPERCELL OR BOWING LINE SEGMENT CHARACTERISTICS AS STORMS
MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST OF BIL. SOME WEAK MIDLEVEL
CAPPING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING VORTICITY MAX FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING MAY SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY
INITIALLY. BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHENING INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43830469 43910550 44090620 44490718 44850790 45580904
            45870944 46180963 46440948 46570921 46580884 46370806
            46160713 46060574 46050518 46020444 45860410 45460389
            45120388 44760386 44070403 43900435 43830469



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