Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 282326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282326
OKZ000-TXZ000-290100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 120...

VALID 282326Z - 290100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 120 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 01-03Z...BUT IT IS NOT YET
CERTAIN THAT ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS WHICH INITIATED EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE NEAR LUBBOCK ARE NOW BEING MAINTAINED IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE
CHILDRESS AREA.  WHILE THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO GENERALLY RETREAT
WESTWARD TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
SUPPORT FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOP NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST OF
AMARILLO.  THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MID EVENING...AND PERHAPS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
RESIDUAL POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...WHICH MAY LINGER
NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO.

30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE PROGRESSION OF SOME STORMS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  THERE MAY BE
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
INITIALLY...BUT THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO ADVECT INTO A
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO WEAKENING STORM TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...RENEWED SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 40+ KT...TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD STILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS DECREASE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN PLAINVIEW AND CHILDRESS.

..KERR.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35470295 36270292 36810226 36970133 36940003 36269924
            35179925 34119958 33210015 33090158 34290274 35470295




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