Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 241950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241950
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR WRN KS...FAR
NERN NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241950Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT BEGINS TO
INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS. WHILE SOME MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
OCCURRED IN THE DENVER VICINITY...50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE
BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CO AND NERN CO INTO SERN WY
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 750-1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY FLOW ALOFT IS
RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

INITIAL DISCRETE ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN NERN CO/SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE WHERE MIDLEVEL
TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND. CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z NSSL-WRF AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE PARALLEL HRRR...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AN
UPTICK IN THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN CO AND POTENTIALLY
WRN KS. WHILE THE CURRENT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS IS RATHER
LIMITED...WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF
COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 07/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37320495 37960518 39330586 41290587 42180527 42540468
            42520367 42300247 39420163 38140182 37240201 36570221
            36580381 36690444 37320495




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.