000
ACUS11 KWNS 082145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082145 COR
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-082245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO...VT...MA...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082145Z - 082245Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXTEND EAST OF CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON
DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 403 ACROSS ERN NY...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO
AREA...INTO VT AND PORTIONS OF MA/CT. A VERY SIMILAR AIRMASS EXISTS
ACROSS THIS AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF EASTWARD ADVANCING BOWING SEGMENTS.
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AND ORGANIZATION OF THE LINE OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF
DCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/08/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   45087400 45017209 44497185 42847212 41267248 40757268
            40597294 40527357 40617403 40867456 41437503 42877526
            44457550 44947506 45087400