Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 262040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262040
TXZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262040Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL TX. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX EAST OF A
DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM NEAR 6R6 TO E OF MAF. A STRONG STORM
ORIGINATING FROM A LEFT SPLIT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO
IS MOVING NWD ACROSS TERRELL COUNTY...WHILE CINH AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS LIMITING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NWD THUS
FAR. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL TSTMS
REMAINS POSSIBLE...WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED OWING TO
MARGINAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
SFC MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AT 2000-4000 J/KG. LARGE
SFC T-TD SPREADS AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29790254 31210210 32000140 32040055 31810000 30750025
            29250086 29560124 29750162 29760215 29790254



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