415
ACUS11 KWNS 200158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200157
KSZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Areas affected...Northeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200157Z - 200300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized tornado threat may exist for the next hour or
so.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows that a long-lived supercell
has become better organized as it enters an area of residual
low-level moisture near EMP. This slightly more favorable low-level
moisture and the resulting more moist inflow to the storm appears to
have supported an increase in intensity. Recent TWX VAD shows strong
veering within lowest 1 km with 0-1 km SRH over 400 m2/s2, which is
more than enough to support low-level rotation. Some localized
vorticity enhancement is also possible given the storms presence
within the warm frontal zone across the region. Given the limited
spatial extent of the better low-level moisture and continue
nocturnal stabilization, the longevity of the tornado threat with
this supercell is expected to be short-lived. Even so, a localized
tornado threat may exist for the next hour or so for this small
portion of east-central KS.

..Mosier/Hart.. 05/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...

LAT...LON   39039609 39209573 39159541 39009528 38709519 38519527
            38429550 38419603 38569623 39039609