Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 250035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250034
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MO...NWRN/N-CENTRAL AR AND ERN
OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 5...

VALID 250034Z - 250230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 5 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DECLINE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH
TIME...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR
NEAR ERN FRINGES OF WW OR SLIGHTLY TO ITS E BEFORE ALL CONVECTION
WEAKENS BELOW SVR LEVELS.  REMAINDER WW CAN BE CLEARED W OF PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND.  ANOTHER WW IS NOT LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW AND COLD FRONT NOW BEHIND
CONVECTION OVER SWRN MO...WHILE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS ERN
OK.  WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW ESEWD ACROSS SERN MO AND EXTREME
WRN KY TO MID TN.  BKN BAND OF TSTMS...INCLUDING OCNL/MRGL
SUPERCELLS...ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD 30-35 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO
AND OZARKS OF NWRN/N-CENTRAL AR.  TSTMS ALREADY HAVE WEAKENED AND
BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED ACROSS CENTRAL MO N OF WARM FRONT.  AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OUTRUN ALREADY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING INCREASES
MLCINH...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING.  AVBL RAOBS AND
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE DECREASING FROM AROUND 1500
J/KG OVER SERN OK AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND TO LESS THAN 250 J/KG IN
VIH-UNO CORRIDOR...AND LIKELY TO DIMINISH WITH TIME.  50-60-KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND 150-300 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH -- WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NEAR WARM FRONT -- ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION UNTIL BUOYANCY BECOMES TOO MEAGER.

REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 136 FOR COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT S AND SW
OF WW.

..EDWARDS.. 03/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   35549422 36179321 37059239 38399199 39149277 39439273
            39559258 39669231 39469182 39199143 38709131 37879136
            37209144 36489191 35789254 35079327 34739380 34609431
            34629518 34709565 34899596 35019533 35549422



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