Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 182253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182252
MTZ000-182345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182252Z - 182345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL VIGOROUS STORMS OVER S-CNTRL
MT IN STILLWATER COUNTY.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE EAST AND
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EWD-MOVING STORMS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  MODIFYING AREA RAP SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.  STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT /KBLX VAD/ HAS LED TO
AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR --SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES.  THE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE W COAST
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL ACT TO PARTIALLY DELAY THE
DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF COOLING THIS EVENING.  EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION VIA THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH/GOSS.. 09/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45700969 46290723 46080656 45720639 45120679 45030992
            45320997 45700969



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