Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 032244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032243
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-040015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...ADJACENT SERN INDIANA...AND NERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...

VALID 032243Z - 040015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WHILE TENDING TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE CINCINNATI
METROPOLITAN AREA.  PORTIONS OF WW 467 COULD BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN
TIME/AREA...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL EVOLVING SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CINCINNATI METROPOLITAN
AREA.  THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY A SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT.  HOWEVER...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...FROM WEST SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR
GROUND LEVEL...IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CONVECTION BENEATH 40+ KT ...BROADLY
CYCLONIC...WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.

FORCING ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION BENEATH A
POSSIBLE ENHANCED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SUSTENANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY.  BUT THIS FORCING IS SUBTLE...AND
WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STABILIZATION THROUGH
THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY APPEARS UNLIKELY.  IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
LONGER ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WITH AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TEND TO PROPAGATE EAST
SOUTHEAST OF CINCINNATI...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

..KERR.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39468497 39748418 38968288 38438284 38138434 38758501
            38998517 39468497




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