Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271935
OHZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271935Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME WIND
DAMAGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TWO PARTS OF OH
/CENTRAL AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/.  ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE
CENTRAL OH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...A SLIGHT RISK AREA
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE 20Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A SMALL
PART OF CENTRAL OH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED
TO SHOW TWO LINEAR MCS TRACKING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 30 KT.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OH PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALLOWED FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING...WHILE CU DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE
EROSION OF SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.  THE TWO AREAS OF STORMS APPEAR
TO EACH BE ATTENDANT TO SEPARATE MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

DESPITE SOME VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINES OF STORMS
POTENTIALLY WEAKENING CONVERGENCE...THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE WITH THE SOUTHWEST OH STORM COMPLEX AS
IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OH...WHILE THE NORTH-CENTRAL OH STORMS MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39828222 39418280 39408342 39498391 39868387 40258387
            40878349 41238322 41678298 41728206 41138185 40428190
            39828222



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