Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 012202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012201
MOZ000-KSZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NWRN MO AND NERN KS...INCLUDING THE KANSAS
CITY METRO AND EWD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012201Z - 020030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA AND
EWD BETWEEN 22-00Z.  GIVEN A LIMITED COVERAGE AREA AND POTENTIAL
OCCURRENCE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...AT 2140Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE SOUTH PART OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA...WITH THE LEADING PORTION EXTENDING FROM JOHNSON COUNTY MO TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY KS...WITH THE CLUSTER EXTENDING SWD TO ANDERSON
COUNTY KS TO BATES COUNTY MO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING NEWD AT 30
KT AS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE METRO AREA BETWEEN 22-00Z.
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED A E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT BISECTING MO
FROM NORTH OF STL TO MORGAN COUNTY THROUGH CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY TO
NRN BATES COUNTY MO AND THEN INTO LINN COUNTY KS.  A SEPARATE WIND
SHIFT EXTENDED NWWD FROM LINN COUNTY TO WRN JOHNSON TO JEFFERSON
COUNTIES KS.  LITTLE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES...WITH THE E-W BOUNDARY BEING REINFORCED BY ONGOING
STORMS TRACKING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO.

ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
ORGANIZED STORMS NWD INTO NRN MO AND KS...A LESS UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.  IT SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF ONGOING STRONGER STORMS TO
WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS THESE BOUNDARIES.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...

LAT...LON   38699338 38589416 38719470 39049490 39399451 39609372
            39539312 39209288 38919298 38699338



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