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ACUS11 KWNS 292308
SPC MCD 292308

Mesoscale Discussion 0371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017


Concerning...Tornado Watch 99...

Valid 292308Z - 300045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 99 continues.

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for tornadoes and
damaging winds may materialize across parts of southern/central
Missouri over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar data early this evening
depict growing convection within the warm sector across the Ozarks
and vicinity. Within bands of persistent pre-frontal confluence
here, more vigorous, deeper updrafts should organize this evening,
aided by an uptick in southerly low-level flow across
central/eastern Missouri. In response to very modest near-surface
moisture advection from the south/southeast and gradual cooling
aloft, MLCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg may be realized.
Despite narrow buoyancy, amplifying low-level shear will potentially
favor a greater tornado threat over eastern portions of the tornado
watch this evening, especially as cells approach the warm front. As
such, an eastward expansion of the ongoing watch could be needed
across the Springfield, MO CWA.

Farther northwest, thunderstorms have organized near the Kansas City
metro area in response to large-scale ascent related to the main
mid-level vorticity maximum. A few of these cells may briefly pose a
threat for severe hail after crossing north of the warm front this
evening. However, this threat should remain brief/marginal north of
the ongoing watch.

Lastly, isolated cells developing along frontal convergence across
northeast Oklahoma may briefly reach severe limits as they interact
with ample deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates. This
convection should remain sparse in coverage as it evolves into
southwestern portions of the ongoing tornado watch this evening.

..Picca.. 03/29/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37469144 36719150 36539231 36429473 36749529 38369531
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