000
ACUS11 KWNS 131742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131741
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-131915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHERN IND...WESTERN
KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131741Z - 131915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF MO INTO CENTRAL IND.  A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  WW MIGHT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM VIH-BLV-HUF.  STRONG HEATING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S...ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2500 J/KG.  12Z MODELS AND
LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  25-35 KNOTS OF WESTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL
OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
TRENDS IN THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..HART/DARROW.. 07/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38169179 38609008 38948859 39568650 38898539 37888569
            37208786 37179090 37669219 38169179