


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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780 ACUS11 KWNS 101944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101943 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-102145- Mesoscale Discussion 1633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado to northeast New Mexico and northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101943Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving off the Rockies will be capable of severe downburst winds from eastern Colorado into northeast New Mexico and northwest Kansas. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be relatively higher across CO, and may require watch issuance in the short-term. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has slowly increased over the past 1-2 hours across central CO. Observed dewpoint depressions on the order of 40-50 F hint that very deep/dry boundary layers are in place east of the Front Range across the High Plains. While buoyancy is fairly limited (MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg), LCLs between 3-4 km will favor very strong downdraft accelerations via evaporative cooling. Severe downburst winds have already been observed with more isolated convection earlier today, and velocity imagery from KFTG is showing 40-50 knot low-level outflow winds associated with stronger convective cores. The potential for severe winds should increase in tandem with convective coverage through the late afternoon hours when diurnal heating/mixing will be maximized. Expanding cold pools coupled with 25-35 knot 0-6 km bulk shear may support the development of one or more organized clusters that could pose a more robust wind threat with gusts potentially as high as 80 mph. In general, thunderstorm coverage should remain greatest across CO due to ascent associated with a passing mid-level wave and weak cold front, though more isolated severe storms are possible further south into northeast NM. Watch issuance is probable for portions of the region as thunderstorm coverage (and the severe wind threat) increases. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 38310506 40210503 40740455 40890400 40960352 40970311 40880261 40690210 40350148 40020119 39280121 38410167 37250255 35580361 35270394 35110447 35120476 35310499 35720504 38310506 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN