Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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586
ACUS11 KWNS 231935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231934
TXZ000-232130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231934Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in severe potential should occur over the
next several hours, with isolated large hail and damaging winds the
main threats. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
northeast to central TX, continuing into west TX. Surface pressure
falls of 2-4 mb per 2 hours across central TX ahead of the front
suggest large-scale ascent attendant to a southeastward-moving
shortwave trough over the southern High Plains is overspreading the
discussion area. Some elevated convection has recently developed
behind the front, likely associated with the shortwave trough. As
these thunderstorms move quickly east-southeastward, they will have
some potential to become surface based. Clearing ahead of the front
has allowed for diurnal heating to destabilize the airmass across
the warm sector of central TX. Latest RAP Mesoanalysis indicates
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg has developed this afternoon. Further
heating may allow MLCAPE values to approach 1500 J/kg through the
peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

Northwesterly low-level winds strengthen with height, supporting
effective bulk shear values of 45-50 kt. Convective coverage and
evolution remains somewhat unclear this afternoon across central TX
and vicinity. But, consensus of short-term guidance points to an
increasing potential for supercell development over the next several
hours along and ahead of the front, with large hail and damaging
winds both possible. Depending on convective trends this afternoon,
watch issuance is possible.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 05/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29599956 30709929 31279856 31709780 31829680 31549582
            31009581 30139630 29629679 29389749 29189832 29239915
            29599956




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