Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 272351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272351
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT...WRN/CNTRL ND...CNTRL/N-CNTRL
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272351Z - 280215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS LIKELY THIS
EVENING...MOST LIKELY BEFORE 01Z...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN MT INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO CNTRL SD.

DISCUSSION...AS ADDRESSED IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED MCD 1554 FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN
PARTS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO ENTER THESE AREAS OUT OF UPSTREAM WW 456. HOWEVER...WITH WATER
VAPOR LOOPS SUGGESTING FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUING TO OVERTAKE THE
ANTECEDENTLY CAPPED...BUT STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR...THE SVR WIND/HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE GOING INTO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHERMORE...MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A SUPERCELL
EVOLVING OVER WRN SD WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO CNTRL SD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. THE NEW WW WOULD
LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO CNTRL SD...AS WELL.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   44100064 45890145 46430350 47960493 48700538 48940380
            48740146 47730034 45419916 44129963 44100064



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