000
ACUS11 KWNS 231739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231739
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-231945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231739Z - 231945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the threat for damaging wind gusts and a
tornado or two is expected this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has thus far been slow to increase across
much of KY, but continued heating/destabilization, along with the
increasing influence of remnant TC Cindy, will result in an increase
in the threat for organized convection this afternoon. SBCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, combined with effective shear of 40-50 kts, will
result in the potential for organized storm structures, with both
small supercells and larger-scale line segments possible as
convection evolves with time. While weak midlevel lapse rates will
tend to limit updraft intensity, moderate-to-strong southwesterly
flow through a deep layer will support a threat of damaging winds.
Low-level shear is sufficient for a tornado or two, especially in
closer proximity to the surface circulation where low-level winds
are locally backed. Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon
to cover this threat.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   36708652 37318640 37898595 38658513 38598460 38468315
            38378254 37368294 36608326 36668554 36708652