Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280058
NEZ000-280230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...

VALID 280058Z - 280230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INITIAL SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL NEB ARE WEAKENING AS A
BROADENING/SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTER DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH
E-CNTRL/NERN NEB. RISKS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A BRIEF
TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT OVERALL
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS RIGHT-MOVER OF A PAIR OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR NEAR THE
CUSTER/DAWSON/BUFFALO COUNTY BORDERS. THIS STORM HAS LIKELY INGESTED
AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
COOLED 6-12 DEG F FROM PEAK HEATING OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 00Z TOP/OAX
RAOBS SAMPLED SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN. FARTHER N...REMNANT LEFT-MOVER AND
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TYPE DEVELOPMENT IN A W/E-ORIENTED BAND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING AMID A LLJ STRENGTHENING AOA 50 KT. THE
UEX VWP SAMPLED A QUITE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS JET. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY POOR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL SEVERE RISK HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AND MAY REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED/MARGINAL THE REST OF THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 08/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42369788 42509870 41789966 41349971 40889941 40709844
            40959674 41179661 41629671 41859703 42369788




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