Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 031908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031907
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-032030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL SC...CNTRL/SE GA...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031907Z - 032030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W-CNTRL SC SWWD INTO THE CNTRL
FL PANHANDLE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND AN APPROACHING SPEED
MAX PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J PER KG
DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE BETTER MID-LEVEL FLOW /AND
BY EXTENSION SHEAR/ IS DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE REGION BUT RECENT
MESOANALYSIS AND VAD DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30
KT...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND
UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AND TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30838284 30268446 30228569 30618610 32008480 32748400
            33998231 33598111 31838167 30838284




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