Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271935
MTZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271935Z - 272200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...THOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...WITH STRONG SFC HEATING OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL/WRN/SRN MT...CUMULUS GROWTH AND ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ARE UNDERWAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CNTRL MT
MOUNTAINS SE OF GREAT FALLS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP WWD TOWARD THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS -- POSSIBLE WEAK SUPERCELLS -- ARE
FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MT HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE EVENING. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THESE
AREAS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S AMIDST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE REGION ARE SUPPORTING AROUND 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AMIDST
30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN THIS BUOYANCY/SHEAR PARAMETER
SPACE...ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

ASCENT RELATED TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT PRESENTLY...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A
LOCALIZED CLUSTER OF GREATER SVR COVERAGE COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE IN
CNTRL/SRN MT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...AND LACK OF STRONGER
BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS NOT PRESENTLY
SUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45150789 45761005 46341183 47491159 47470969 47140793
            46380660 45530676 45180705 45150789




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