Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232354
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF W/NW TX AND ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND
SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 232354Z - 240130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE  EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...WITH A
SEPARATE AREA IN SOUTHWEST KS.  STORMS OVER WRN NORTH TX AND SWD
INTO W TX MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE...WHILE ACTIVITY IN WRN
OK CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER.  AS STORMS SPREAD
EWD...ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS WW...WHILE THE LACK OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WRN PART OF THIS WATCH SUGGESTS COUNTIES CAN BE CANCELLED WITH
WWD EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRY LINE FROM WRN/SWRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX.  THE DRY LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST CENTRAL
KS SWD TO JUST W OF LBL TO 35 E AMA TO 40 WSW CDS...AND THEN SEWD TO
40 WNW ABI BEFORE TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTHWEST TX.  THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE STORMS THAT HAVE
MOVED INTO WRN OK HAD MERGED...WHILE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX FROM
HARDEMAN AND BAYLOR COUNTIES TO ERN STONEWALL AND HASKELL COUNTIES
REMAINED MORE DISCRETE.  THE LATTER ACTIVITY WAS SOMEWHAT MORE
REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...30-60 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.  THIS
ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ INTO
WRN OK AND ADJACENT SRN KS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING.  THUS...EVENTUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX...AS WELL...INTO
A SEPARATE CLUSTER.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.  A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
SEVERE INTO CENTRAL OK IS THE EXISTENCE OF A CAP AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PER THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING.

..PETERS.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...
MAF...

LAT...LON   32040104 32820094 34110101 36970108 38260113 38259834
            37009818 36189803 35059806 34029803 33499792 33349890
            32099915 32040104




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