687
ACUS11 KWNS 180333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180332
OKZ000-TXZ000-180430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481...

VALID 180332Z - 180430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCAL SEVERE RISK CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE.  WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY IN TIME/AREA TO COVER THIS
RISK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUN /ALONG WITH OTHER CAM
SOLUTIONS/ CONTINUES TO DEPICT UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONGOING STORMS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE...SUCH GROWTH HAS NOT MANIFEST ITSELF THUS FAR.
ONE POSSIBLE HINDRANCE TO SUCH A SCENARIO MAY BE THE EARLIER CLUSTER
OF STORMS THAT MOVED W-E ACROSS OK...WHICH MAY HAVE SUFFICIENTLY
ALTERED THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUCH THAT SEVERE RISK INTO WRN
OK WILL BE LARGELY TEMPERED.  INDEED...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE BORDER INTO OK...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER MAY BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE.  AS SUCH...A NEW
WW EXTENDING EWD INTO OK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WITH A LOCAL
EXTENSION OF THE EXISTING WW IN TIME/AREA A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION
ATTM.

..GOSS.. 09/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34780158 36070169 36050006 34719996 34780158