Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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311 ACUS11 KWNS 100035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100035 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-100230- Mesoscale Discussion 1622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499... Valid 100035Z - 100230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-severe convection will spread across central and eastern portions of ww499 over the next several hours. Damaging winds remain possible. DISCUSSION...An elongated corridor of organized convection is progressing across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. This activity is shifting east at roughly 20kt, which would allow the leading edge of the squall line to move off the NJ Coast shortly after 02z. Strongest convection should remain focused across the southern half of the watch where considerably more instability persists. 00z sounding from WAL supports this with roughly 2400 J/kg MLCAPE, but lapse rates are quite weak due to very moist profiles. Even so, strong downdrafts, due to water loading, remain possible as PW values are on the order of 2.25 inches. ..Darrow.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 37977711 40627546 40637318 37977491 37977711 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH