000
ACUS11 KWNS 220444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220444
MNZ000-WIZ000-220615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL MN...AND FAR NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428...

VALID 220444Z - 220615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS A LARGE
MCS ADVANCES EWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL MN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND INTO FAR NWRN WI THROUGH 06-07Z...WHILE THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH NERN MN BETWEEN 05-08Z.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
LINE...SUCH THAT THESE COUNTIES CAN BE REMOVED FROM WW 428.

DISCUSSION...TIME-LAPSE OF MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING
SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN AT 45 KT...AND
A FORWARD SPEED OF 35-40 KT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN.  AT 0425Z...THIS
LINE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KOOCHICHING COUNTY MN TO TODD/POPE
COUNTIES MN.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH THIS MCS...AND WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S/ AND A RESIDUAL POOL OF
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 3000-4500 J PER KG/ PRECEDING THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL MAINTAIN FORWARD PROPAGATION.  GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST...THOUGH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION COULD BECOME A GREATER
DETERRENT TO STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE.

..PETERS.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   45409580 46899477 48719402 48589271 48209149 48209042
            48018912 47289108 46859132 46189146 45679192 45139215
            45089267 45109381 45219464 45409580