000
ACUS11 KWNS 140410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140410
KSZ000-NEZ000-140545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Areas affected...South-central/Southwest
NE...Northwest/North-central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451...

Valid 140410Z - 140545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451
continues.

SUMMARY...The remaining severe threat over WW 451 is confined to the
ongoing supercell cluster over southwest Nebraska. A weakening trend
with this cluster is expected with time and no additional watch
issuance appears necessary.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell cluster is ongoing across
southwest NE at 04Z. The environment downstream of this cluster
remains characterized by moderate buoyancy and effective shear,
though CINH continues to increase with time. A modest low-level jet
of 20-25 kt noted on area VWPs may help to sustain this cluster in
the short-term, resulting in a continuation of the large hail and
locally damaging wind threat. However, a continued increase in CINH
and decrease in available buoyancy should result in a general
weakening trend with time overnight. While there is some potential
for the threat to extend past the 05Z expiration time of the watch,
this could covered by a local extension in time (if necessary) and
no new watch issuance is anticipated.

..Dean/Thompson.. 08/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41060061 41029944 40799907 40259887 39639875 39159898
            39160000 39300014 40640054 41060061