Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 232204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232204
OKZ000-TXZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232204Z - 240030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK. ONE OR
MORE WATCH ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT
ALSO LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. CLOUD BREAKS AND MODERATE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER
PRECIPITATION LOADING-RELATED DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. A 55 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT
TEMPLE TX IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH OTHER 40+ KT MEASURED WIND GUSTS
NOTED IN NEARBY OBSERVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 22Z. A TROPICAL-TYPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LCL/S EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS SQUALL LINE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS
EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF NORTH TX.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35209810 35959764 36219691 35629608 32619620 30899796
            31339845 32069901 33159946 33540042 34480092 34799982
            35209810




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