000
ACUS11 KWNS 082216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082215
ARZ000-OKZ000-082315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR...FAR NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082215Z - 082315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SSEWD TOWARDS CNTRL AR...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WWD INTO FAR NERN OK. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS.
IT IS UNCERTAIN IF COVERAGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS OVER NRN
AR...AND WERE LOCATED OVER NEWTON/SEARCY COUNTIES AS OF 22Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...AND WAS
EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL PER
THE WDSS-2 MESH ALGORITHM. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF OF ONGOING
TSTMS...WHERE CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY
ENHANCED.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO
PROPAGATE S/SEWD...AMIDST MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH DECREASES
WITH SWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY 2500-3000 J/KG/ IS IN PLACE
ACROSS CNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR TSTM MAINTENANCE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IF THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SVR CONVECTION BECOMES
APPARENT...IN WHICH CASE A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   35569036 34839121 34689202 34669305 34709415 35179496
            35489518 35809512 36009472 36089418 36209277 36229187
            36309143 36139054 35569036