Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 112052
SPC MCD 112052

Mesoscale Discussion 0066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia...Southern Maryland...Southern

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112052Z - 112315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado or strong wind gust will be possible
across southeastern Virginia into southern Maryland and southern
Delaware this afternoon. The threat should remain too marginal to
warrant WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
place from the Carolinas northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface
dewpoints along this corridor are generally in the mid 60s F. As a
result, weak destabilization has occurred today with MLCAPE values
estimated by the RAP around 500 J/Kg across parts of southeastern
Virginia. Convection has developed on the northern edge of the
stronger instability from near Richmond extending northeastward into
southern Maryland. The Wakefield WSR-88D VWP currently shows a
strongly sheared environment with 0-6 km shear near 45 kt and 0-3 km
storm relative helicity above 400 m2/s2. This should be enough for
storm rotation and possibly an isolated tornado within low-topped
convection that can develop and persist. A few strong wind gusts may
also occur.

..Broyles/Grams.. 02/11/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37307560 36797647 36677744 36927784 37517766 38287651
            38907544 38247489 37307560 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.