Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210430
OKZ000-TXZ000-210530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle/Northwest TX...OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152...

Valid 210430Z - 210530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 152
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to expand in areal coverage
across the Southern Plains north of the Red River.  Large hail is
the primary severe risk with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed within
warm advection zone across the Southern Plains from northwest TX
into extreme southeast KS.  While 00z soundings from AMA and OUN do
not exhibit significant instability, moisture is advancing north of
the boundary into a region of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Environmental trends continue to favor additional robust convective
development tonight.

Two particularly noteworthy supercells have evolved over northwest
TX.  These storms are propagating southeast toward the primary
frontal zone and are likely producing very large hail at times.
Current thinking is these storms should remain elevated in nature
but given the proximity to the warm sector the inflow layer appears
to be ingesting more favorable moisture/instability.

Upstream across the TX Panhandle...large-scale forcing for ascent is
beginning to spread toward the western-most fringe of higher quality
moisture.  Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over
northeast NM in advance of a notable short-wave trough.  Strong
thunderstorms may develop west of WW152 toward 08z then intensify
into a possible MCS toward daybreak as it propagates into western
OK.

..Darrow.. 04/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36090169 35999708 33979709 34070170 36090169




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