Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 111610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111610
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Areas affected...portions of eastern AR...western TN...northwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111610Z - 111815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong gusts capable of localized wind damage
are possible generally from midday onward.  The expected low
coverage of intense thunderstorms will likely preclude a severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken band of storms over
northeast AR extending into the greater Little Rock vicinity as of
16Z.  These storms will gradually move east into a theta-e axis
protruding northeast from southern AR into western TN.  Surface
temperatures/dewpoints are in the lower 80s/mid 70s degrees F.
Although mid-level lapse rates are relatively weak, low-level lapse
rates will continue to steepen as heating occurs.  MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg and effective shear around 20-kt will support some weak
storm organization with the multicells.  As such, a few of the
stronger downdrafts may pose a localized risk for strong gusts/wind
damage.

..Smith/Guyer.. 08/11/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34229183 36288959 36138893 35668878 34408954 34099052
            34229183




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