Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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944
ACUS11 KWNS 020608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020607
LAZ000-TXZ000-020800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...FAR WEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020607Z - 020800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS PERSIST. HAIL
SIZE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT MOST...BUT A STORM
OR TWO MIGHT PRODUCE GOLF BALLS.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED NORTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS PRESENT ALONG THE TX TO LA COASTAL
PLAIN. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN
MODESTLY BUOYANT MUCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ATOP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ROBUST SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER JET IS LIKELY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER
AND WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. LARGER HAIL SIZES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN MORE DISCRETE COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30119752 31319617 32159493 32319410 32189344 31719283
            30909263 30169283 29789358 29419487 29469579 29549715
            29689748 30119752




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