Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 152136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152135
FLZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central FL and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152135Z - 152330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A very isolated severe-thunderstorm risk may exist through
late afternoon, and Watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms continue spreading
eastward across portions of central Florida -- i.e., activity that
developed along the leading edge of a broad frontal zone. Frontal
convergence has remained weak amidst weak deep ascent, and diurnal
heating over inland areas has contributed to the maintenance of this
activity. More isolated convective development continues farther
south, where low-level ascent is even weaker though capping is also
weak. All of this activity will continue to spread eastward and
encounter MLCAPE on the order of 500-1250 J/kg. A few weakly
rotating updrafts -- aided by 30-40 kt of effective shear -- may
evolve. While an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, nearly
unidirectional tropospheric flow fields should limit the efficiency
for low-level mesocyclone development, while modest midlevel lapse
rates limit updraft accelerations. Storms are expected to move off
the Atlantic coast by early evening.

..Cohen/Hart.. 02/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27108209 27608206 28328173 29058118 28768071 27128027
            26638081 26688171 27108209




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