257
ACUS11 KWNS 221947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221947
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-222215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221947Z - 222215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of thunderstorms may develop during the next
couple of hours across the area. Gusty thunderstorm winds and maybe
some hail will be possible with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts increasing ascent, as
evidenced by deepening cumulus, along a narrow convergence zone
stretching from just west of Amarillo north-northeast into southwest
Kansas. Additionally, increasing coverage and deepening of cumulus
was evident across northeast New Mexico. Given moderate-to-strong
instability in place, a couple of thunderstorms or thunderstorm
clusters may evolve out of these areas. Deep-layer shear is
generally at or below 25 knots, which will tend to limit overall
updraft organization. However, the degree of instability, downdraft
CAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg, and temperature-dewpoint spreads
approaching 30F will support a primary severe threat of strong/gusty
thunderstorm outflows, although hail cannot be ruled out. The short
space/time window of the threat, along with the expected limited
coverage, should preclude the need for a watch.

..Marsh/Hart.. 09/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35880342 37090275 37990175 38070073 37740049 36090119
            35050195 35060274 35220345 35880342