Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 061858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061857
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-062030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW MO...NE/E-CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061857Z - 062030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. SOME SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS INDICATE A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT IS DEVELOPING.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TSTM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST HOUR. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU FIELD AHEAD OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM FNB
IN EXTREME SE NEB SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KS TO PYX IN THE FAR NE TX
PANHANDLE. THUS FAR...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ANAFRONTAL BUT
THE DIURNALLY DECREASED CINH AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HELP
PROMOTE MORE SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
POOR BUT GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL STILL PUSH MLCAPE OVER 2000 J PER KG WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT
FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. PRECIP LOADED UPDRAFTS
MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE LACK OF A BETTER
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT LOW BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE COOL
POOL AMALGAMATION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION RESULTING IN A MORE
SUSTAINED WIND THREAT NECESSITATING A WATCH.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37409927 38569782 39559624 40459516 40729401 40199313
            37559674 37409927



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