Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230135
TXZ000-230300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230135Z - 230300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST. AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED /BEYOND LOCAL EXTENSION/
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS TO THE
CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...TWO CORRIDORS OF GENERAL UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING /AS OF 715 PM
CST/...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY...AND TO A LESS-ORGANIZED EXTENT...IN AREAS
NEAR/JUST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST OF AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO. THE AIR
MASS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WITH THE 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATIVE
OF 1900+ J/KG MLCAPE. SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SOME ADDITIONAL COASTAL AREAS
NOT CURRENTLY COVERED UNDER SEVERE TSTM WATCH 557...HOWEVER CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE
SHUNTED OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH-NORTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY/I-35
VICINITY...CONTINUED STORM MERGERS /AIDED BY SURGING OUTFLOW/ WITHIN
A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NEAR/WSW OF AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK RELATIVELY
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THIS EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29879881 30209837 30409782 29679720 29359640 29369596
            29079515 28239658 27329746 28519816 29879881



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