Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291930
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...NWRN KS...NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291930Z - 292130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN CO/SWRN NEB ALONG AND
IN ADVANCE OF A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...AND IN PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SLIGHTLY COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MODEST BUOYANCY
/MLCAPE 500-750 J/KG/. WITH 35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
SWD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT ANY SVR THREAT WOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...AND AS A RESULT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39519910 39270030 39780274 40140314 40730300 40960233
            41040169 41020072 40890021 40339932 39519910



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