Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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438
ACUS11 KWNS 252357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252356
TXZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS KS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 252356Z - 260200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW.  SVR THREAT IS INCREASING WITH SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN SLN-CNK...AND OTHER/YOUNGER CONVECTION EVIDENT
IN SRN KS/NRN OK.  ROW OF COUNTIES HAS BEEN ADDED TO NRN RIM OF WW
FROM CNK EWD.  ON E SIDE...E OF FLINT HILLS...EXPANDED VERSION OF
THIS WW OR ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED AS CONVECTIVE/
DESTABILIZATION TRENDS WARRANT.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR I-70 BETWEEN RSL-SLN.
COLD FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM THERE SWWD ACROSS SWRN KS THEN BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY AND ARCHING BACK INTO ERN CO.  DRYLINE WAS ANALYZED
FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION NEAR P28 SSWWD ACROSS WRN OK TO TX BIG
BEND REGION.  AHEAD OF DRYLINE...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WAS
EVIDENT MAINLY ABOVE SFC...INFERRING STREAMLINES FROM SHALLOW/MDT
CUMULIFORM CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TRENDS...AND WAS DRAWN FROM DEWEY
COUNTY OK NEWD ACROSS ICT AREA...BECOMING DIFFUSE NWD ACROSS MARION
COUNTY.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE RETREATING NWWD 5-10 KT.
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS DRAWN FROM CENTRAL AR
WNWWD ACROSS NERN OK...INTERSECTING CONFLUENCE LINE INVOF KS/OK
BORDER...AND SHIFTING NWD INTO SRN KS WHILE BECOMING MORE
ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME.  SFC LOW LIKEWISE IS FCST TO BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE THROUGH EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT IN MEANTIME HAS
VEERED FLOW TO NLY COMPONENT IN RSL/GBD AREA...REDUCING SVR THREAT
THERE IN SHORT TERM.

STORM N SLN EARLIER PRODUCED FUNNEL AND BRIEF TORNADO...AND SHOULD
BE SUSTAINED IN RELATIVELY DISCRETE FASHION FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AT
LEAST...AS IT MOVES INTO FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS NEAR I-70 W FRI
AND ACROSS NRN FLINT HILLS.  OTHER INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE
GLACIATION BETWEEN END-EQA SUGGESTS RELATIVE PEAK IN
THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS AUGMENTING LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE LINE.  ANY SUSTAINED/DEEP CONVECTION THAT
EMERGES FROM THAT REGIME ALSO MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR....GIVEN
SSELY SFC WINDS INVOF WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...EFFECTIVE SRH
200-300 J/KG OVER SRN FLINT HILLS...AND MLCAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
3000-5000 J/KG RANGE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.  FARTHER S ACROSS
NWRN/WRN OK...CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS CAP STRENGTHENS WITH SWD EXTENT...ESPECIALLY S
OF DEEPER TOWERS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY IN MAJOR COUNTY...RENDERING
TSTM POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30160173 31150070 32019992 32159933 31659891 30519914
            28960030 29550109 30160173




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