


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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592 ACUS11 KWNS 112054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112054 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-112230- Mesoscale Discussion 1647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and the western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112054Z - 112230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms developing off the Raton Mesa and along the stalled front will likely pose a risk for damaging gusts and isolated hail into this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 2050 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed initial thunderstorms intensifying across the higher terrain of southern CO and eastern NM. Driven largely by weak upslope flow and diurnal heating, gradual storm intensification is expected over the next couple of hours. Warm surface temperatures and adequate moisture are supporting moderate buoyancy amid mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. This should support stronger updrafts as convection develops off the higher terrain through the remainder of the afternoon. Vertical shear is not overly strong (30-40 kt), but sufficient for a few organized storms including supercells or persistent multi-cell clusters. With time, scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop and spread eastward into the TX/K Panhandles. Given the degree of buoyancy and potential for supercells, an initial risk for hail is expected. A deeply mixed boundary layer and consolidating outflow should also favor a damaging wind risk, especially with some upscale growth later this evening. Lingering inhibition and the limited forcing for ascent suggests the overall convective evolution may be somewhat slow. CAM guidance agrees, showing storm organization occurring as storm coverage increases this evening. However, the environment is expected to support an increasing severe risk into this evening. Some uncertainty exists regarding the timing, but a severe thunderstorm watch appears probable this afternoon/evening. ..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37240521 37590458 37750344 36910139 35790127 34630175 34140324 33880396 34250504 37240521 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN