Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021902
WIZ000-MIZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021902Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE
OF AN ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 19Z SHOWS A BUBBLING
CU FIELD OVER CNTRL WI WHERE A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY STORMS.  THE
AIRMASS S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WHEN MODIFYING
THE 12Z GRB RAOB WITH AN UPPER 80S TEMP AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINT.  12Z
SUBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING
INTO W-CNTRL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING CAP RESULTS IN
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLS MAY
POSE AN INTERMITTENT/ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK WILL BE NEGATED BY WEAK WLY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON   44459098 44998995 45248825 45088717 44398734 44138778
            44168902 44459098




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