Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020145
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN OK...AND SERN KS INTO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486...487...

VALID 020145Z - 020315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
486...487...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  A NEW SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH...OR EXTENSION IN TIME OF WW 486...PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED BY
03Z.

DISCUSSION...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF
STORMS/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN UNDERWAY DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO.  THIS APPEARS GENERALLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION...BASED ROUGHLY AROUND 850 MB.  FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD
STILL INCREASE SOME WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET /30-35 KT AT 850 MB/ THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME
FRAME...LIKELY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA...BETWEEN BARTLESVILLE AND
JOPLIN.  AIDED BY INFLOW OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...WITH SIZABLE CAPE BENEATH LINGERING MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL BUT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR.  HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER
OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 KT DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE GUSTS
AT LEAST APPROACHING...IF NOT EXCEEDING...SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 09/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37849524 37849324 36869295 36659496 36379654 36169748
            36399803 37069754 37849524




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