Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260642
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-260845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 160...

Valid 260642Z - 260845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 160
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue for several more
hour across southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas and eastern
Oklahoma. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the primary
threats. Severe storms may eventually affect areas just to the east
of WW 160 but any severe threat should be too isolated for
additional WW issuance. Local extension may be needed across parts
of southern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar analysis shows a nearly continuous
line of strong to severe storms extending from southwest of
Springfield, Missouri southwestward into southeastern Oklahoma. The
RAP is analyzing moderate instability ahead of the line with MLCAPE
estimated from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. This combined with lift associated
with a 40 to 55 kt low-level jet will help to maintain the line of
storms for several more hours. In addition, forecast soundings early
this morning across northwest Arkansas have moderate deep-layer
shear profiles which will continue to be favorable for wind damage
associated with bowing segments within the line itself. Isolated
large hail will also be possible with rotating cells. The line of
storms will continue to move eastward into south-central Missouri
and across northwest Arkansas where a capping inversion atop a
stable boundary layer. This should eventually help to weaken the
line resulting in a more isolated severe threat.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 04/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   37629360 36369409 35419508 34979572 34629565 34429518
            34559365 35779238 36869186 37569224 37629360




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