


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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864 ACUS11 KWNS 151749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151748 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-151945- Mesoscale Discussion 1674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151748Z - 151945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage near the cold front, with corridors of severe wind gusts possible, along with sporadic hail. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the Arrowhead southwestward into northeast SD, with a weak surface low over central MN. Weak moisture convergence exists near the front and low, with a moist air mass in place. Continued heating within cloud breaks, and warming via advection out of the south will lead to a long duration deepening moist boundary layer. Storms have already formed over northeast MN into northern WI, where low-level warm advection is currently maximized. A general increase in storms is anticipated extending southwestward later this afternoon, as more of the area becomes fully uncapped. Hail cannot be ruled out with initial cell development, but overall deep-layer shear will remain less than about 30 kt. Activity is expected to merge/elongate along the entire boundary, which will remain mostly parallel to the midlevel winds. With southwest winds around 850 mb, this suggests a line of storms propagating in an east/southeastward direction from late afternoon through early evening. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 46139085 45659264 45269407 45159492 45269546 45579558 45919549 46359506 46689452 47169306 47419178 47409122 47289078 47079036 46559035 46139085 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN