000
ACUS11 KWNS 260229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260228
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-260400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Areas affected...Eastern NM...Western TX Panhandle...TX South
Plains/Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...

Valid 260228Z - 260400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible for the next
few hours across watch 370. Transition to more of a linear system
appears to be underway with a resulting downstream threat for
isolated strong/severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery continues to show
numerous strong to severe storms across eastern NM and the northwest
TX Panhandle. Radar imagery also appears to show the presence of a
MCV across northern Lincoln county in east-central NM. The presence
of this MCV coupled with an overall southeastward surge of the
storms across the region suggests that the development of a linear
convective system is underway. Additionally, imminent interaction
between the long-lived supercell moving over Hartley county TX and
the convective cluster over San Miguel and Quay counties in
northeast NM is expected to further foster upscale growth. Resulting
convective line will likely stretch from near AMA southwestward to
south-central NM.

Anticipated linear development will result in a transition of
primary severe threat from hail to damaging wind gusts. However,
given the marginal instability of the downstream airmass (i.e. less
than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE on the 00Z MAF sounding), the extent and
severity of these wind gusts is uncertain. Current expectation is
for the developing MCS to prolong the duration of the storms across
the region but with a general loss in intensity. Isolated damaging
wind gusts will be possible outside of WW 370 across portions of the
TX South Plains and Permian Basin but the limited spatial extent and
overall marginality of the anticipated gusts will likely preclude
the need for a downstream watch. Even so, convective trends will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier.. 06/26/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34580509 35930452 36680304 35720186 32600222 32090350
            32530572 34580509