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ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SPC MCD 222048

Mesoscale Discussion 1125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Areas affected...Eastern LA...Southeast AR...MS...AL...Western GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 364...

Valid 222048Z - 222215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 364 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two and locally damaging wind
gusts continues in and near WW 364. Short-term trends will be
monitored closely with regard to the need for additional watches to
the north or east.

DISCUSSION...The most active convection across WW 364 continues to
cover the western and eastern third of the watch area, with a local
minimum over much of MS into western AL. To the west across
northeast LA/southeast AR into western MS, multiple arcing bands of
convection have developed. This more linear configuration will
support a threat of locally damaging winds, especially given
relatively strong heating and some potential for transport of strong
southerly momentum to the surface, while the linear mode is somewhat
less favorable for a tornado threat. These convective bands will
eventually move into portions of northern MS not currently in WW
364. Short-term trends will be monitored for the need of a new watch
to cover this threat.

On the eastern side of the watch, the strongest convection has
shifted to eastern AL, with strong convection also developing over
western GA. Convection remains somewhat more cellular in nature
across this area, and the threat of a tornado or two remains,
especially near any precipitation-enhanced surface boundaries. The
threat near a more well-defined surface boundary across north GA was
discussed in previous MCD 1124. Short-term trends will be closely
monitored across portions of west and north GA with regard to the
need for watch issuance.

A local minimum in convection persists across the central portion of
WW 364 across much of MS into western AL. Despite strong heating in
this area, weak low-level convergence and entrainment of dry air
aloft has likely limited convective intensity thus far. It is
unclear whether robust redevelopment will occur in this area, but a
conditional risk for a brief tornado or two and isolated damaging
wind will exist with any deep convection that can persist later this

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/22/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


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