Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 121958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121958
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-130000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Areas affected...Swrn through nern Ohio...nwrn Pennsylvania...wrn
New York

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 121958Z - 130000Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow at up to 1 inch per hour rates may
develop across areas near and southeast of Lake Erie through the 4-8
PM EST time frame.

DISCUSSION...As large-scale upper troughing continues to dig into
portions of the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region, and another trough
pivots across and northeast of the Tennessee Valley, models indicate
an area of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic
forcing across parts of the lower Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region by
early evening.  Associated lift, including through the favorable
dendritic growth zone, appears likely to be accompanied by a band of
increasing precipitation rates across roughly the Interstate-71
corridor of Ohio, into the Cleveland metro area, and east
northeastward through Buffalo and surrounding areas of western New
York state.  Coinciding with further low/mid-level cooling to
sub-freezing temperatures, as a sharp cold front steadily advances
southeastward, this is expected to become mostly moderate to heavy
snow.  This may include at least a couple hour period at rates near
or in excess of 1 inch per hour, before heavier snow begins to
develop/shift off to the east northeast of the lower Great Lakes
region this evening.

..Kerr.. 01/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41678237 42158139 43457867 43147743 40588123 39278331
            38818416 38948491 39398502 40398406 41678237




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