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ACUS11 KWNS 121958
SPC MCD 121958

Mesoscale Discussion 0023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Areas affected...Swrn through nern Ohio...nwrn Pennsylvania...wrn
New York

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 121958Z - 130000Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow at up to 1 inch per hour rates may
develop across areas near and southeast of Lake Erie through the 4-8
PM EST time frame.

DISCUSSION...As large-scale upper troughing continues to dig into
portions of the upper Great Lakes/Midwest region, and another trough
pivots across and northeast of the Tennessee Valley, models indicate
an area of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric frontogenetic
forcing across parts of the lower Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region by
early evening.  Associated lift, including through the favorable
dendritic growth zone, appears likely to be accompanied by a band of
increasing precipitation rates across roughly the Interstate-71
corridor of Ohio, into the Cleveland metro area, and east
northeastward through Buffalo and surrounding areas of western New
York state.  Coinciding with further low/mid-level cooling to
sub-freezing temperatures, as a sharp cold front steadily advances
southeastward, this is expected to become mostly moderate to heavy
snow.  This may include at least a couple hour period at rates near
or in excess of 1 inch per hour, before heavier snow begins to
develop/shift off to the east northeast of the lower Great Lakes
region this evening.

..Kerr.. 01/12/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41678237 42158139 43457867 43147743 40588123 39278331
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