Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291706
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-291830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NW WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291706Z - 291830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS NW WI.
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS IA INTO SE MN AND NW WI WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MLCAPE
IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF DULUTH SHOW ABOUT 25
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CELL ORGANIZATION AND
SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER MULTICELLS. A WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF A
BOWING LINE SEGMENT OR COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP.

..BROYLES/HART.. 06/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   47159078 47189212 46679366 45419413 44699438 44229425
            43919355 44039262 44159203 44389154 44779113 46228979
            47159078



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