Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210039
TXZ000-210215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...ADJACENT AREAS OF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INTO S CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192...

VALID 210039Z - 210215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES WITH STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY...THIS EVENING.  AN INCREASING
RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH/WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER IS REMAINING GENERALLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
INITIAL INTENSE STORMS THAT FORMED NEAR SAN ANGELO.  THE LEAD
STRONGER STORMS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO...SUPPORTED
BY A PERSISTENT AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MODEST
INFLOW OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR THAT APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
WHICH COULD SUPPORT FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...THROUGH JUNCTION BY AROUND 02Z...PERHAPS AS CLOSE TO SAN
ANTONIO AS KENDALL/BLANCO COUNTIES BY 04Z.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT
PROBABLY WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30910060 30899987 30679890 30209867 29949943 30360048
            30270150 30210335 30800212 30910060



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