Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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186
ACUS11 KWNS 261732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261731
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-261930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHERN
OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261731Z - 261930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS INCREASING OVER THE
AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW IS CROSSING ILLINOIS PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSES...AND IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE DAY /AND A SUBSEQUENT ENHANCEMENT IN NEAR-SURFACE
CONFLUENCE/ IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
NOW RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.

BROADLY...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THE
LAST HOUR AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER EXPERIENCING STRONG HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS/DOWNDRAFTS. SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED
AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF
STRONGER MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT. FURTHERMORE...THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED SHARPLY BY RAPIDLY
DECREASING FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE SOUTH NOTED IN
MORNING RAOBS. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY INDICATIONS OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
UPSCALE GROWTH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER JUST SOUTH
OF THE CINCINNATI AREA...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE LATER IN THE DAY.

..CONIGLIO/EDWARDS.. 07/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   39238455 39178331 38858158 38588129 38188131 37838176
            37618308 37728512 37868612 38088648 38418652 38858636
            39188584 39238455




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