Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231712
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231712
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-231845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231712Z - 231845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN IND AND NWRN OH.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...A PRE-FRONTAL AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS HAS
ENTERED WRN LOWER MI...WITH TRAILING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
MI INTO CNTRL IL. MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
LINE INTO NRN IND...AS TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500 J/KG. GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WITH THE PREDOMINANT THREAT BEING STRONG TO
LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...GIVEN 20-40 KT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
OBSERVED IN GRR VWP DATA. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAKES WATCH ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   42618318 41018399 40398563 40608666 40978726 42208628
            43218570 44088546 44548528 44538405 43748311 43448303
            42618318



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