Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 201642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201641
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-201915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN AR / FAR SERN MO / WRN TN / NERN LA /
NRN INTO SERN MS / W-CNTRL AND SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201641Z - 201915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  POCKETS OF 45-65 MPH GUSTS WILL PROBABLY RESULT FROM
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND YIELD LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A
SWELLING CU FIELD FROM THE OZARKS NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER SEWD THROUGH
MS AND INTO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE.  SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM AL/FL INTO NRN MS
COINCIDENT WITH THE SWELLING CU FIELD IN THIS REGION.  12Z
LZK/JAN/BMX RAOBS SHOWED LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS RANGING
FROM 16.5-17.0 G/KG -- RESULTING IN A 90-PERCENT VALUE COMPARED TO
LONG-TERM RAOB CLIMATOLOGY.  ADDITIONAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS
LIKELY OCCURRED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AUGMENTED THESE VALUES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER -- PER INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S
DEG F DESPITE INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING.

A VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE SAMPLED BY THE 12Z AREA RAOBS AND CURRENT
VAD DATA WILL RESULT IN PULSE THUNDERSTORMS.  VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
GROWTH WILL LIKELY OCCUR INITIALLY GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
/3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  0-3 KM LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN
AND RANGE FROM 8-9.5 DEG C/KM BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTIVE OF
WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.  THE
MORE WATER-LADEN CORES WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN POCKETS OF 45-65 MPH
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

..SMITH/HART.. 07/20/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   30848954 32529167 35439298 36899187 36839053 34058856
            32228603 30938599 30398786 30848954




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