Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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755
ACUS11 KWNS 140425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140424
TXZ000-OKZ000-140600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Areas affected...Parts of northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...

Valid 140424Z - 140600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong storms may persist into the overnight across parts
of northwest Texas into the Red River Valley.  However, any
lingering severe weather potential appears low enough that an
additional watch is not anticipated after severe thunderstorm watch
450 expires at 05Z.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development persists along the
leading edge of the slowly southward advancing conglomerate cold
pool, now near/south of Childress and Plainview, with additional
vigorous storm development focused within an area of enhanced
low-level warm advection near/southeast of Childress.  However, with
radiational surface cooling and increasing inhibition for near
surface air, there has been a general decrease in peak storm
intensities evident in MRMS data during the past hour or so.

Into the 06-09Z time frame, strongest convective development seems
likely to slowly turn eastward with an evolving mesoscale convective
vortex across parts of northwest Texas into the Red River Valley.
Given sizable CAPE at mid/upper levels, frequent lightning flash
rates and heavy rain may continue.  Heavy precipitation loading
aided by high precipitable water content within a narrow plume along
the Red River may provide some renewed  potential for a strong
downburst or two.  In general, though, this threat appears limited
by the modest to weak nature of the ambient wind fields.

..Kerr.. 08/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   34159989 34659928 34159767 33149874 33060016 33280097
            33600090 33820039 34159989




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