Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 021649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021649
MIZ000-021745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...

VALID 021649Z - 021745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS 55-70 MPH WHICH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MULTIPLE SWATHS
OF WIND DAMAGE.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW DRAPED FROM THE TRAILING PORTION OF STRONG STORMS
OVER LAKE HURON WESTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MI.  THE AIRMASS INVOF THE
BOUNDARY AND TO THE S HAS DESTABILIZED MARKEDLY THE PAST FEW HOURS
WITH AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND HEATING RESULTING IN
UPPER 70S TEMPS.  THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW /50 KT AT 2-3
KM AGL/ AT KAPX PRIOR TO QLCS PASSAGE WILL LEND SUPPORT FOR MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED
SUFFICIENTLY.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS DURING THE PAST
30-60 MINUTES IS YIELDING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE
WIND DAMAGE AND SWATHS OF 55-70 MPH WIND GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE PRIOR
TO THE QLCS MOVING OFF THE LAKE HURON COAST.

..SMITH.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   45368467 45348364 44338327 43978409 44058527 45368467




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.