Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241810
TXZ000-NMZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241810Z - 241945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
NNEWD FROM ERN NM ACROSS THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SW KS WITH A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WEST TX ARE IN THE MID 60S F AND TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE NERN
EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH THE STORMS MOVING SWWD INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT AMARILLO SHOWS
40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35750085 35790256 35420386 34770440 34060417 33740334
            33940177 34340044 35280026 35750085




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