Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020048
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-020245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MT...NERN WY...SWRN ND...AND WRN
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020048Z - 020245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...RADAR TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NERN MT HAS ENCOURAGED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SERN MT IS CHARACTERIZED
BY MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. A FAVORABLE/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT EVIDENCED BY
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM GLASGOW MT AND RAPID CITY SD SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE SEWD WITH TIME. LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO
A LINE WITH TIME THROUGH THE EVENING. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...ALTHOUGH AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEYOND WHAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN WW ISSUANCE.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45750746 46730814 47260495 46810363 44370127 43500122
            43130194 43050334 43280441 44590602 45750746



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