Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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577
ACUS11 KWNS 281544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281543
NEZ000-COZ000-281715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281543Z - 281715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. AN ADDITIONAL...HIGHER
COVERAGE SVR THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE TSTM MOVING FROM SIOUX COUNTY INTO SCOTTS BLUFF
COUNTY IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. THIS TSTM IS ON THE WRN EDGE OF A
CLUSTER ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WHICH HAS
PERSISTED JUST N OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE STORM ENCOUNTERING SOMEWHAT
BETTER VERTICAL SHEAR. ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS STORM /AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CLUSTER/ HAS BEEN MODIFIED BY THE TSTMS /AND ATTENDANT
OUTFLOW/ WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...THE AIRMASS IS MOIST BUT COOL...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT HOSTILE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO UNTIL IT IS MODIFIED SUFFICIENTLY BY DIURNAL HEATING. AS
SUCH...EXPECTATION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY
LARGELY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT CONTINUES SEWD.
DESTABILIZATION AND MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESULTING HIGHER COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40970368 41530385 42000377 42180308 41540162 40450140
            40090282 40970368




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