Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230650
KYZ000-INZ000-230945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Areas affected...Far southern IN through northern...central into
eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230650Z - 230945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible
through the overnight to early this morning from far southern IN
through parts of northern, central, and eastern KY.  Overall
expected episodic occurrences of strong/damaging wind gusts preclude
the issuance of a severe-thunderstorm watch at this time.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed two MCSs ongoing
in the Ohio Valley, 1) extending from far southeast IL through
southern IN, and 2) extending from southwest OH into northeast KY.
These MCSs are tracking to the east-southeast within a moderate
instability (MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) gradient.  Surface observations
and objective data indicate high theta-e air resides southward of
these storm complexes. A westerly 25-30-kt low-level jet across KY
will maintain a feed of the available instability for new storm
development.  Effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt will support storm
organization.  Meanwhile, composite outflow boundaries extending
from east-central to northwest KY into southwest IN are moving ahead
of stronger storms that have elevated pockets of 50-55-kt winds per
area WSR-88Ds.  Although surface-based inhibition has strengthened,
individual storm movements up to 35 kt (40 kt with stronger storms)
and stronger winds above the surface could result in episodic
damaging wind gusts reaching the surface.  This threat will be
greatest with any storms that show signs of upscale
growth/organization.

..Peters/Edwards.. 07/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38718726 38668658 38368544 38198445 37898316 37728241
            37528220 36938296 36948374 37318531 37778715 37998769
            38068777 38718726



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