Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200610
OKZ000-TXZ000-200745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 191...

VALID 200610Z - 200745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 191 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.  AS SUCH...THE WATCH WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z.  ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER MAINLY NORTH TX.  AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A CONSOLIDATION OF
DISCRETE STORMS INTO A LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NWRN TX
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.  FARTHER TO THE EAST...A MORE RECENT
SUPERCELL OVER DENTON COUNTY HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING WHILE MOVING
INTO SRN COOKE COUNTY.  THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WHICH SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED IN W-E FASHION ALONG
THE RED RIVER WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD TRANSITIONING TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.  HOWEVER IN THE NEAR TERM...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL EXIST WITH AN HP SUPERCELL AS IT TRACKS FROM CLAY INTO
MONTAGUE COUNTIES.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33609995 34119996 34449882 34709720 34739630 34669582
            33929596 33399732 33299861 33349968 33609995



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