Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 051455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051454
MNZ000-NDZ000-051630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND...NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051454Z - 051630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD NEAR A COLD FRONT WILL POSE
A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM FAR NORTHWEST MN
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ND AT 1445Z. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN ND APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY BEHIND OF THE FRONT...BUT
WITH RECENT EASTWARD MOTION AVERAGING 40-45 KTS...THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WHILE
APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT RADAR VELOCITY TRENDS FROM
KMVX SAMPLE A STRENGTHENING REAR INFLOW JET DEVELOPING WITH THE LINE
SEGMENT MOVING INTO EDDY/BENSON COUNTIES...AND AS THESE STORMS
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

THE DISCUSSION AREA LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BELT OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS HAVE
RESULTED IN 30-35 KTS OF WESTERLY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
RESULTING IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM RADAR/ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 07/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46999988 47559968 48029918 48319861 48619762 48669599
            48619489 48219412 47729393 46959420 46689486 46659805
            46809942 46999988



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