Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 230548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230547
LAZ000-TXZ000-230745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230547Z - 230745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP
INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.

DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER SOUTH TX...A
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS EVENING /1145 PM CST/. KHGX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASING COMMONALITY OF SQUALL LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION
PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ROUGHLY APPEARS TO DEMARCATE THE WARM
FRONT AND RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F PER OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS. INLAND-DEVELOPING
MESOVORTICES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LA COAST EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT-ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND AND RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN LA COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE
COASTAL-GRAZING SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
THREAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INLAND.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29349506 29779496 30079380 29749119 29249092 29169116
            28929263 28089408 29349506



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.