Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290016
NDZ000-SDZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290016Z - 290145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 02Z FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH
EXTREME NCNTRL SD. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER CNTRL ND
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
50-55 KT. BISMARCK 00Z RAOB INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500 MB...BUT IS CONVECTIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...A NARROW ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL ND. FAST MOMENTUM OF THE STORMS COMBINED
WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45760208 47030163 48000133 48350069 47880014 45770046
            45390142 45760208



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