Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020116
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-020315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020116Z - 020315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF TORNADO WILL PERSIST OVER ECNTRL THROUGH SERN MO INTO SRN IL
THIS EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR AS GREAT AS
FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN MO. WHILE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS REGION...ANY SUCH ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ECNTRL MO
THROUGH SRN IL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN A ZONE
OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS FORMED WITHIN A REGION WHERE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH
ERN EXTENT INTO SRN IL. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST MODERATE 1000-2000
J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 35-40 KT 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT WITH RELATIVELY SMALLER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THAN
FARTHER WEST. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE MIGHT BE SOME TENDENCY
FOR STORMS TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC LAYER WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...WHICH MIGHT SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 07/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   39039214 38958985 38648770 37388846 36979120 38009246
            39039214



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