Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 251937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251937
OKZ000-TXZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251937Z - 252130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA DISPLAY A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OK SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TX
PANHANDLE WHERE IT THEN INTERSECTS WEAK CONFLUENCE/TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THESE
BOUNDARIES...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...A
CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION. RECENT KAMA VWP AND
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE THAT THE REGION IS UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
IN TURN...THE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS WELL AS MAINTENANCE OF SPLITTING
UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM MERGER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.
WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY ADVANCE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LARGER LINES/CLUSTERS
MAY PROGRESS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING -- A FUNCTION OF
ADVECTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PROPAGATION TO THE EAST INTO
GREATER BUOYANCY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36439786 35829765 35349789 34749945 33730082 33540122
            33870189 34080237 34650251 35280250 35760190 36420084
            36769984 36889908 36739848 36439786




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