Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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262
ACUS11 KWNS 192357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192356
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern Alabama and the Florida
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192356Z - 200200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional strong wind gusts may accompany a band of
thunderstorms as it shifts eastward across portions of southern
Alabama and the Florida panhandle this evening. Watch issuance
currently is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the last two hours, the regional radar mosaic
indicates that a band of thunderstorms along the central Gulf Coast
has developed a leading stratiform region. This evolution is likely
in response to the arrival of strong west/southwesterly anvil-layer
flow, favoring downstream hydrometeor advection/seeding. In turn,
the overall strength of convection has trended downward, as modest
stabilization occurs ahead of the system. Nonetheless, occasional
weak embedded rotation within line segments may still materialize
this evening, as suggested by a fairly straight hodograph in KMOB
VAD wind profile data. These convective elements could encourage a
few strong wind gusts, as positive theta-e advection from the Gulf
of Mexico occurs ahead of the line. The tornado threat, while
non-zero, appears minimal, as surface pressure falls (and resultant
backed winds) remain displaced farther north.

..Picca/Edwards.. 01/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30288858 32018785 32038685 31928541 31818494 31578477
            31338475 30848461 30418462 29648481 29668522 30218667
            30178782 30288858




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