Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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510
ACUS11 KWNS 270441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270440
TXZ000-270615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 270440Z - 270615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storm development is expected to
diminish to the south/southeast of the Waco/Temple area within the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated vigorous convection persists across parts of
central Texas, to the south of Waco, in the presence of strong
vertical shear and moderately large mixed layer CAPE.  Although
low-level moistening continues, the loss of daytime heating has
resulted in increasing inhibition for boundary layer parcels.
Activity does appear to be maintaining frequent lightning flash
rates, but radar data indicates at least some recent weakening of
convection.  With upper support for large-scale ascent becoming more
unclear, and likely diminishing, weakening storm trends seem likely
to continue and result in increasingly negligible severe weather
potential through 06-07Z.  Until then, lingering convection may be
capable of producing marginally severe hail and/or a few strong
surface gusts.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31159701 31359650 30739637 30499707 30759800 30869718
            31159701




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