Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 042250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042249
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-050015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SERN VERMONT...SRN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SRN MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469...

VALID 042249Z - 050015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS /THROUGH AROUND
00-01Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
469 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME...FOR AN HOUR OR SO...ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...BUT THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TO THE NORTH OF A STALLING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND/CONNECTICUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
COULD STILL BE AUGMENTED THROUGH 00-01Z BY A LINGERING AREA OF
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT IS SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE
THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER JET AXIS...CURVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH SUSTAINED STORMS.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAVE
STABILIZED MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED.

..KERR.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   43567204 43827085 43447021 41837029 41767090 41457283
            41857322 42307326 43057280 43567204




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