Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271745
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WV...SWRN/WRN/CNTRL VA...NWRN/CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271745Z - 271945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SVR COVERAGE IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MERIT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR /AROUND 6 DEG C PER KM FROM 700 TO
500 MB ON REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/ BUT AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG
BASED ON THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS. MODERATELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
EXISTS BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST
AND MORE CYCLONIC FLOW FARTHER N ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND ERN CANADA. RESULTING ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND/OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS BUT SOME DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF CELL MERGERS AND PRECIP
LOADING. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND A WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...
JKL...

LAT...LON   38478114 39078006 39307895 39127813 38867768 38517745
            37777740 35967797 34937996 36518318 38478114



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