Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 261809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261808
KSZ000-OKZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK...CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261808Z - 262015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LONGER TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN.  BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY
TO ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE I-35/135
CORRIDOR OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS IS
OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
SIZABLE CAPE.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...EAST OF THE DRYLINE
...AND SOUTHWEST OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN KANSAS...IS RATHER
MODEST...PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LEVEL.  SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT AFTER
ONGOING...INITIAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MITIGATED AS INCREASING OUTFLOW IMPACTS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS COULD STILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A RISK FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   36749850 37739874 38779835 39589773 39609599 38959531
            37349534 36279716 36749850




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