Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 210034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210033
CAZ000-210230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210033Z - 210230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CA...WITH A LOBE OF
IMPLIED LIFT INTERACTING WITH A REGIME OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INVOF
THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS. THIS CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SIERRA CREST AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. CAPPI DATA AT 7 AND 9 KM INDICATE OCCASIONALLY MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE CORES...PERHAPS AIDED BY 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN
THE NERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED DEEP SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. A MARGINALLY SVR
TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE IN THE PBL IS TEMPERING BUOYANCY SUCH THAT A GREATER
SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE STEERED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
VALLEY ESPECIALLY N OF FRESNO.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON   35641845 36821975 37422091 38462152 39072104 38781997
            35921759 35341760 35641845



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