Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 271651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271651
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MS INTO FAR WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271651Z - 271745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE AN MCV JUST E OF MLU
WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RESIDUAL MCS COLD POOL FROM CLAIBORNE COUNTY MS TO THE WRN SHORE
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SERN LA.  FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.  AND WHILE THE BACKGROUND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT STRONGLY SHEARED...THE FT. POLK VWP DOES
SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THE
MCV WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  AS SUCH...THE SETUP
MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM AGGREGATION AND POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATION
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

..MEAD.. 05/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31078995 31709025 32739009 33268980 33528925 33548877
            33518839 33418820 32998815 32178821 31658824 31178834
            30648849 30448888 30398929 30578976 31078995



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