Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 222326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222325
TXZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222325Z - 230130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA OF
SWRN TX THIS EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF STORMS WARRANT A WW...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF
SANDERSON NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WRN TX. THE WARM SECTOR EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-4000 J/KG
MLCAPE. HOWEVER...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS
IN THIS REGION. A STORM DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE JUST EAST OF FORT
STOCKTON APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING. HOWEVER...A LARGE RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELL JUST JUST EAST OF MIDLAND MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SAN
ANGELO CWA. A LEFT SPLIT IN EXTREME NRN MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE
BORDER COUNTY OF VAL VERDE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. HOWEVER...CONCERN IS THAT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MIGHT LIMIT DURATION AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS IN THIS REGION.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32140008 31150008 29760085 29860176 29940220 31230184
            31950151 32140008




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.