Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281758
NCZ000-VAZ000-282030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern Virginia and North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281758Z - 282030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe storms capable of
hail are possible this afternoon mainly across southeast Virginia
into eastern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures in
association with a shortwave trough has led to around 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE across central VA and NC. Visible satellite imagery shows
widespread cumulus development, with a few weak thunderstorms over
western VA aided by the higher terrain. Farther east, a relative
cool pockets was noted over eastern NC due to ongoing showers,
however, these will eventually move offshore with warmer air
returning from the west.

With time, further heating will erode any remaining CIN, allowing at
least isolated thunderstorms to form across the entire area. Little
focus exists given a broad/weak surface low, however, the best area
may be over southeastern VA and central to northeastern NC in a few
hours, as the instability axis shifts into that area, and where
low-level convergence will exist for a longer duration as winds
generally veer with time, from west to east. A cell or two could
exhibit supercell characteristics at times, but the main threat
should be hail as winds in the low-levels will be weak.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON   36647933 37707851 37927762 37747683 37337623 36717582
            36147549 35477538 35127561 34657629 34387709 34947939
            35307990 35867980 36647933



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