Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 031757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031757
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-032030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...WRN AND CNTRL NC...NRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031757Z - 032030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FROM NRN SC NWD INTO SRN VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL VA SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL NC INTO NWRN SC. SFC DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS DEVELOPED
ON THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY INITIATED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN NC AND NRN SC OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING STORM ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SC AND WCNTRL NC WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN VA...THE SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34488202 35108187 36388094 36978015 36907813 36147800
            34667901 34177960 34068022 34088113 34288184 34488202




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