Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 192110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192110
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-192315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southeast
Mississippi...central and southern Alabama...and western portions of
the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192110Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some gradual increase in severe weather risk is indicated
across the discussion area, with a severe storm or two possibly
evolving over the next 1-2 hours.  In the short term however, watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a somewhat disorganized band of
storms extending from north central Alabama southwest to
southeastern Mississippi, and then southward across far southeast
Louisiana.  A few stronger updrafts exist within the line, but any
risk for damaging winds remains minimal at this time.  Meanwhile,
occasional/more isolated showers continue ahead of the main band,
with some low-level rotation evident at times per area WSR-88D
velocity data.  A brief tornado is not out of the question in the
short term, though risk remains low.

Over the next few hours, modest additional destabilization of the
moist boundary layer should occur, with broken cloud cover
permitting some heating.  As ascent (as implied in water vapor
imagery) shifts across the slowly destabilizing airmass, some uptick
in storm intensity -- both within the main band and with isolated
cells farther east -- appears possible.  While corresponding risk
for locally gusty winds and/or a brief tornado or two may likewise
increase, threat does not at this time appear likely to become
sufficient to warrant watch issuance.

..Goss/Guyer.. 01/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   33108532 32488494 31088522 30188576 28868934 29198986
            30808956 31628836 32368767 33248714 33378582 33108532



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