


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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882 ACUS11 KWNS 132039 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132038 NMZ000-AZZ000-132315- Mesoscale Discussion 1663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132038Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and into the evening, posing a severe wind risk. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over the high terrain this afternoon across the region. While moisture is meager for this time of year, it is sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and robust updrafts. The 18Z Tucson sounding represents the characteristic well-mixed, inverted-V sounding profiles across the region. Certainly, this environment will support dry-microburst potential for the strongest storms. With northeasterly midlevel flow expected to increase this afternoon and evening, a more organized wind threat could develop and move south-southwestward off the higher terrain. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33980977 33830876 33570786 33230767 32500760 32060779 31780818 31430855 31340940 31361050 31461089 31861121 32191135 32561134 33451099 33980977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN