000
ACUS11 KWNS 061847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061846
FLZ000-062015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CST THU MAR 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...

VALID 061846Z - 062015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 27 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE BY 20-21Z ALONG POPULATED ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

DISCUSSION...2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH PALM
BEACH AND MUCH OF THE MIAMI METROPOLITAN AREA.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
BECOMING SIZABLE ACROSS THIS REGION /1500-2000 J PER KG/...NOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF 40 WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE NEAR COASTAL AREAS...BUT THE SQUALL LINE WHICH HAS ADVANCED
INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT AS IT REACHES POPULATED ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY
20-21Z.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG... AT LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES PERHAPS
NEAR VERO BEACH...AS A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 03/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   27848074 27938029 27227977 26347985 25778012 25508033
            25738075 26608059 27568083 27848074