Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291927
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SE CO...WRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
PANHANDLE...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291927Z - 292100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE NM AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE
TX AND OK PANHANDLES. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH FROM THE
VICINITY OF EL PASO EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN NM. SFC
DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
50S F AND AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS NEAR INTERSTATE-25. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ATTM. ACCORDING TO SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS...THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED FROM WEST TX EXTENDING NWWD INTO NE
NM WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NE NM. THIS IS DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT LOW-LEVELS AND SOME SPEED
SHEAR ALOFT WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 4 KM ON THE AMA WSR-88D
VWP. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP AS THE
HRRR SUGGESTS...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER CORES.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36170510 37190466 37380370 37180272 36320228 35360222
            34280271 34050380 34210458 34840501 36170510




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