Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 161102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161101
TXZ000-161130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX and the upper TX coastal
plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161101Z - 161130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A small spatiotemporal window for isolated strong to
locally severe thunderstorms will likely be confined from areas west
through northwest of the greater Houston metro as storms move
eastward through a moist axis.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the past 2-3 hours has shown
transient circulations with the more intense updrafts as a
discontinuous convective band moves eastward across east and
southeast TX.  Strong wind fields are in place ---reference the KHGX
VAD--- and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH is analyzed by objective
analysis.  Despite the weak instability, the strong shear and ample
forcing for ascent are at least promoting some weak storm-scale
organization.  Nonetheless, the storms are moving through a
narrowing wedge of richer low-level moisture and significant
poleward moisture return into the lower Sabine Valley will likely
not occur before the convective band moves through this region.  As
a result, the strong-storm threat will likely decrease substantially
once storms` move through the moist sector.  While a brief/weak
tornado or pocket of wind damage cannot be ruled out, it seems the
coverage of any severe risk will likely remain low and preclude the
need for a watch given the limiting factors discussed above.

..Smith/Grams.. 01/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON   29259653 30689589 30649534 29459497 29259653




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