Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 181753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181753
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL...SERN MS...SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181753Z - 182030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AMPLE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR CONTINUES
ALONG A LLJ ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH THE JACKSON MS VWP SAMPLING
45-KT SLYS AT 1 KM AGL. RELATED CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SFC THETA-E
DEFICITS HAVE FACILITATED A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED W-E ACROSS
SRN AL EXTENDING SWWD NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND FARTHER W NEAR
ATCHAFALAYA BAY. THE MOST ROBUST MASS FLUXES ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ
ARE PRINCIPALLY DIRECTED N OF THIS ZONE...MAINTAINING ITS
BAROCLINICITY...WHILE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND SHEAR ARE WEAKER ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

REGARDLESS...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S IS PRESENT NEAR THE GULF COAST AMIDST TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S-MIDDLE 80S. MODIFICATIONS TO THE LIX/LCH 12Z RAOBS
INDICATE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITHIN AROUND 50 MILES
INLAND FROM THE COAST -- LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER N. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS...WITH STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING
ACROSS SERN LA AND MORE ISOLATED SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS NEAR MOBILE
BAY. HIGH PW -- OVER 2 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- WILL ENHANCE WATER
LOADING TO SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DMGG WIND
GUSTS. ALSO...THE LIX DOES DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY LONG...CURVED
HODOGRAPHS BELOW 3 KM AGL FOR SOME CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER SPATIAL PHASING OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY
AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...CONFIDENCE IN A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK
IS LIMITED.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 07/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29129107 29819117 30539030 31508897 32068728 31228625
            29968742 28858929 29129107



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