Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180157
KSZ000-NEZ000-180300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB...N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

VALID 180157Z - 180300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
THE SSE-MOVING CLUSTER PUSHING S OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD PERSIST BEYOND 03Z SCHEDULED WW EXPIRATION WITH A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...NE PORTION OF AN MCS OVER S-CNTRL NEB HAS RAPIDLY
WEAKENED NEAR THE GID/LBF/OAX CWA BORDER AREA. THESE APPEARS TO BE A
RESULT OF INCREASING MLCIN AS SURFACE COOLING HAS ENSUED BENEATH
WARM NOSES BETWEEN 800-700 MB AS SAMPLED BY DOWNSTREAM 00Z RAOBS AT
OAX/TOP. THE THRUST OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED IN AREAL EXTENT AND SHOULD PUSH S/SE INTO
N-CNTRL KS DURING THE NEXT HOUR. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE LINE
HAVE LARGELY RANGED FROM 35-45 KT ACROSS SEVERAL ASOS/AWOS
STATIONS...EXCEPT FOR A RECENT WIND GUST TO 72 KT AT KHSI.
STILL...LONG-TERM TREND SHOULD BE COLLAPSING MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY
CORES...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED.

..GRAMS.. 08/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   40359974 40329914 40599849 40839813 40669780 40249719
            39569711 39279733 38959792 38929851 39019908 39319901
            39619889 39879894 40149932 40359974



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