Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 092318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092317
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-100045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB...NW KS...E-CNTRL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500...

VALID 092317Z - 100045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 500.

DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 998 MB CYCLONE NEAR LAA
WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING NE TO HLC...WITH A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT APPROACHING MCK TO ITR. STRONGEST STORM WITH A HISTORY OF
MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR
SW NEB /NOW CENTERED ON THE NEB-KS BORDER/. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM 3-7 KM AGL SAMPLED IN GLD/FTG VWP
DATA. WITH PREDOMINATELY NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONT...UPSLOPE FLOW IS WEAK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A PROBABLE
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
MAY STRUGGLE TO ULTIMATELY INTENSIFY INTO SEVERE STORMS.

MOST LIKELY THE NRN PORTION OF THE WW COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY AS
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS S INTO LATE EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 09/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40850093 40629941 39729921 38739930 38670086 38670251
            39130271 40080247 40850093



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