Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222242
WIZ000-MNZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MN AND FAR NWRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 498...

VALID 222242Z - 230015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 498 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WW 498 OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO
WATCH. NRN PORTIONS OF WW 498 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
HAS HAMPERED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO EXCEED THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING SOMEWHAT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MLCAPE ESTIMATES FROM RAP
MESOANALYSIS RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW
498...TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS FAR NRN MN. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE HAVE NOT INCREASED GREATLY IN
INTENSITY...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WITH NWD EXTENT. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
TORNADO WATCH /RED HATCHED AREA IN GRAPHIC ABOVE/ WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND OCCURRENCES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

..GLEASON.. 08/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   49039712 49059526 49449518 49389476 48789444 48669292
            48299174 46149154 46179407 46169622 47179649 48069702
            49039712




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