Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 231934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231934
NEZ000-KSZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231934Z - 232200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE
AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL NEB TO A LEE CYCLONE
IN E-CNTRL CO. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ACCOUNTING FOR PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE AROUND 500-750 J/KG EXISTS. AS
RESIDUAL CAPPING IS BREACHED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY NEAR ITS
INTERSECTION WITH A DRYLINE CURRENTLY MIXING INTO WRN KS -- W OF
WHICH VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT INTO E-CNTRL
CO. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY 40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS PER VWPS
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS
ANTICIPATED OWING TO 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DMGG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE AND
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SEVERE
HAIL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE INCIPIENT PHASES OF CONVECTION AND
WITH DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODES.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   42179848 41809727 40709723 38389866 38140042 38670100
            40050028 41029966 42009943 42179848



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