Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292054
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-292230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NM...CO...TX...OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509...

VALID 292054Z - 292230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO
SOUTHEAST CO.

DISCUSSION...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS EASTERN CO AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM AND
THE CO FRONT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND EXPECT THESE TRENDS
TO CONTINUE AS THE STRONG DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS ACROSS ROCKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

MASS RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS
ALREADY RESULTED IN A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER NM/CO
WHERE SURFACE GUSTS AWAY FROM DEEP CONVECTION WERE ALREADY
APPROACHING 40KT. EXPECT DEVELOPING BANDS/LINES OF STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 50KT AS CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE.
MORE DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED BUT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL WITH
STORMS OF THIS CHARACTER.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33470491 33450622 35950555 38470491 38470351 38470212
            35950287 33450362 33470491




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