


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
503 ACUS11 KWNS 101755 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101755 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-102030- Mesoscale Discussion 1628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...much of northern and eastern Iowa into a small part of western Wisconsin and Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101755Z - 102030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may develop along the southern periphery of the clouds/south of the MCV, with hail or brief tornado risk. The area is being monitored, but a watch is not expected in the short term. DISCUSSION...A prominent MCS is moving across southern MN, with an impressive upper-level outflow presentation on satellite. Meanwhile, lower clouds continue to rotate in cyclonic fashion. Areas of low to midlevel confluence likely exist around the MCV, though only a weak pattern of surface convergence is currently observed. However, strong heating over much of IA south of the MCV is leading to expanding CU fields, with a weak boundary from north-central into eastern IA. CAM solutions are quite variable, but it is plausible that storms, perhaps supercells, could develop later this afternoon as temperatures warm further. LCLs will be low, and low-level shear should remain sufficient to support a brief tornado, given a supercell. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 41269044 41529183 42099335 42469488 42789510 43209495 43549402 43639313 43569206 43289097 42879024 42268981 41778971 41318994 41269044 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN