000
ACUS11 KWNS 041934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041934
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ARKANSAS...SRN MISSOURI...SRN ILLINOIS...WRN
KENTUCKY...NWRN TENNESSEE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 041934Z - 042330Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...APPEARS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A DEVELOPING BAND...FROM THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 00-01Z.

DISCUSSION...SLOW...STEADY SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT AND DEEPENING OF
THE SURFACE BASED COLD INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
LARGE...POSITIVELY TILTED NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH.  THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH AND NCEP SREF OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT COOLING OF A REMNANT
WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
CONTINUED TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME.  AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES.  IT APPEARS
THAT THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A HIGH LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE REGION...INCREASING LIFT
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE /PW ON THE ORDER OF
.50-.75 INCHES/ WHICH CONTINUES TO RETURN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...IT APPEARS THAT A HEAVY SNOW BAND...AT
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAY EVOLVE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WHILE TENDING TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

..KERR.. 03/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37079189 37728920 37768777 36868772 35889077 35509279
            35409411 35629445 36109435 37079189