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ACUS11 KWNS 120938
SPC MCD 120938

Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southern AR...northern LA and west-central

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 120938Z - 121545Z

SUMMARY...A mixture of freezing rain and sleet will continue to
spread eastward during the late overnight into the morning across
south-central and southeast Arkansas, north-central and northeast
Louisiana, and into west-central Mississippi.  Freezing rain rates
should generally be up to 0.05-0.10 inches per 3 hours, though
higher rates (0.10+ inch/hour) associated with a north-south band of
moderate precipitation will remain possible, as this band advances
east.  Locations in south-central Arkansas and north-central
Louisiana should have a decrease in wintry precipitation by 12-13Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR imagery indicated a north-south band of
cooling cloud tops moving eastward through south-central AR and
north-central LA early this morning, with surface observations from
KCDH and KELD to KRSN indicating moderate to heavy precipitation
rates since 08-09Z in this band.  These higher rates and cooling
cloud tops are co-located with a compact area of forcing for ascent
attendant to the progressive shortwave trough.  Forecast soundings
suggest cooling of the surface to near-surface air (generally below
900 mb) will occur faster than the lower troposphere from 750-900
mb, such that freezing rain and eventually a mixture of sleet and
freezing rain will occur from west to east across the discussion

..Peters.. 01/12/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32699273 33059299 33619297 33809264 33829190 33739149
            33539090 33279064 33119066 32789074 32529110 32499197
            32529260 32699273 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.