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ACUS11 KWNS 291952
SPC MCD 291951

Mesoscale Discussion 0369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southwest
Missouri...Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 291951Z - 292215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next
couple of hours across southeast Kansas, far northeast Oklahoma,
northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Initially, wind damage
and isolated large hail will be possible as cells strengthen but a
tornado threat could develop by late afternoon. WW issuance will
likely be needed across the region, potentially by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
southeast Kansas with a warm front extending east southeastward from
the low across southwest Missouri. A corridor of low-level moisture
exists along the warm front where surface dewpoints are near 60 F.
Surface warming has been slow today along and south of the front but
RAP data suggests that instability has started to increase more over
the last hour or so. MLCAPE values are now estimated to be
approaching 500 J/kg across the MCD area. In addition, low-level
convergence has increased over the last couple of hours along the
warm front which has resulted in convective initiation across
east-central Kansas. Other storms are expected to initiate along the
warm front in southern Missouri and further south in northwest
Arkansas over the next hour or two.

Concerning the environment, a 70 to 85 kt mid-level jet is analyzed
across eastern Oklahoma with the exit region into far southeast
Kansas. This feature was enhancing lift and creating strong
deep-layer shear which will be favorable for severe storm
development. Initially, short line segments and discrete cell
clusters may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. As cells
mature late this afternoon, supercells with a tornado threat should
develop especially with storms that can interact with the warm front
in southwest Missouri. A severe threat is also possible southward
across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas
especially as lift increases due to a strengthening low-level jet.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38539491 38659562 38549615 38299643 37909649 37409616
            36509542 35429499 35239439 35339367 36369220 37399222
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