Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180146
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-180315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180146Z - 180315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE LINE WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TOWARDS
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RECENT KLWX VELOCITY DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF
OUTBOUNDS FROM 50 TO 60 KT AT 2000-2500 FEET. SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS
SITES HAVE MEASURED GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 KT...INCLUDING 35 KT GUSTS
AT DCA AND XSA. 00Z IAD SOUNDING AND LWX VAD SAMPLED MID-LEVEL FLOW
FROM 30 TO 35 KT...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH THE ESTIMATED STORM MOTION
OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION /DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/ AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS. 00Z WAL SOUNDING SHOWED A A 500-MB DEWPOINT OF -27 DEG C
WHILE IAD REPORTED -9 DEG C. A FEW STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..MOSIER/GRAMS.. 08/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39277687 39667645 39637587 39347526 38667493 37997525
            37497590 37547653 38107711 38877715 39277687




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