Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281857
MDZ000-VAZ000-282130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN VA AND SERN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281857Z - 282130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM RISK THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SVR TSTM WATCH
MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THE NWD/NEWD SPREAD OF
AGITATED CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN VA...MARKING THE
INFLUX OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE S. POSITIVE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE AREA...AS STRONG DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING CONTINUES
OWING TO INSOLATION. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE
70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG...THE POTENTIAL FOR
VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST. TSTMS COULD FORM ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE PLUME...INVOF A DIFFUSE LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND
AMIDST DIURNALLY ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS IN THE
LOW-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. REGENERATIVE CONVECTION INVOF WWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW MAY ALSO FOCUS TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA VICINITY.
WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS
AND POSSIBLE TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AIDED BY WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES.

HOWEVER...GIVEN LACKING DEEP ASCENT...AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL SVR
COVERAGE/EVOLUTION. ALSO...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT FOCUSED MORE W/N OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A SVR RISK COULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...AND THIS COULD WARRANT SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

LAT...LON   36767881 37887743 37897592 38187522 37387550 36727601
            36647703 36617828 36767881



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