000
ACUS11 KWNS 141929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141929
NYZ000-PAZ000-142200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN / CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141929Z - 142200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS OVER WRN NY. THE ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH LATE AFTN...AND COULD POSE AN ISOLD
/ CONDITIONAL RISK OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. BUOYANCY
WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN LIMITED AND A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS OVER WRN NY...ALONG SHALLOW SSW-NNE
WIND SHIFT LINE / PRECIPITATION BOUNDARY LOCATED AHEAD OF OH VLY
COLD FRONT. THE CONVECTIVE STRENGTHENING APPEARS LARGELY TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH REGION ALSO IS BEING GLANCED
BY SRN FRINGE OF UPR IMPULSE NOW MOVING NNE INTO WRN QUE.

ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE ERN
GRT LKS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 40-50 SWLY DEEP
SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGER-SCALE / FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE MID-MS VLY. COMBINATION OF STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL
LOW TO MID-LVL SSW FLOW WITH STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE
RATES...RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...AND WEAK
LINEAR FORCING ALONG PRECIPITATION /DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS. EMBEDDED
STRONGER CELLS WITHIN SUCH LINES MAY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVE.

..CORFIDI/HART.. 04/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   43567812 44227726 44737626 44957480 44847374 43537421
            42147566 41207735 41507831 41638050 42557927 43097855
            43567812