Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292316
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND ADJACENT N CNTRL THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...126...

VALID 292316Z - 300045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124...126...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED NORTH OF
TORNADO WATCH 126...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.  OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE
NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING VIGOROUS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS IT ADVANCES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL WAVE...ENHANCED BY
FORCING WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE PIVOTING  AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  HOWEVER
THIS FORCING MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY...AND WITH CONVECTION SOON
TO SPREAD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
STABILIZED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
LONGER IT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.

AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE
PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY HELP FOCUS FORCING FOR
INCREASING/INTENSIFYING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF
THE RED RIVER INTO AREAS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX THROUGH 00-02Z.  THIS APPEARS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS IN
LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY.  JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR BENEATH 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35679697 36329583 36369454 35069451 33299557 32959639
            32899723 33629779 35679697




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