Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010710
MOZ000-010815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010710Z - 010815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL PROBABLY YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A COUPLE OF
HAIL-PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AHEAD OF A SEWD-MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER W-CNTRL MO.  A 35 KT
AND A 38 KT GUST HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT KLXT AND KGLY IN THE PAST 40
MINUTES WITH THE SEWD-MOVING STORM COMPLEX.  SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR WEAK STORM ROTATION WILL LEND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AS THE TERMINUS OF A CNTRL
PLAINS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS INTO W-CNTRL AND S-CNTRL MO
TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE ISOLD EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THE LARGE-HAIL
THREAT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37719342 38679377 38609320 37849251 37719342



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