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ACUS11 KWNS 220717
SPC MCD 220716

Mesoscale Discussion 0037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Areas affected...Far East Texas...Northwest
Louisiana...Arkansas...Southern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

Valid 220716Z - 220915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will likely
continue for a few more hours across tornado watch 2. The severe
threat may gradually lessen as the 10Z watch expiration approaches.
For that reason, additional weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows two loosely organized
convective lines. The first line of storms is located from east
Texas north northeastward into central Arkansas. The second line is
located along a cold front extending southwestward from western
Arkansas into northeast Texas. The first line is located out across
the warm sector where surface dewpoints are generally in the lower
60s F. In spite of the relatively moist airmass ahead of the front,
instability is weak across the entire watch area. The convection is
being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of an upper-level trough
over the southern Plains. Also, a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet is
located from the Arklatex north northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley which is providing enhanced lift to support
continued convective development over the next few hours. The
low-level jet along with strong southwest mid-level flow evident on
regional WSR-88D VWPs is resulting in 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km shear.
The will help maintain a wind-damage threat with the faster moving
line segments. The strong low-level shear will make a brief tornado
or two possible with any supercell that develop. As the convection
moves to the edge of the watch, decreasing instability, lowered
theta-e and increasing convective inhibition will reduce the severe

..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/22/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30749400 31189280 32209191 33879165 35539123 36619107
            37069118 37279138 37329163 37309184 37139214 36879231
            35989261 35629277 34489310 32819368 31719413 30749400 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.