Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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396
ACUS11 KWNS 031857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031856
NCZ000-SCZ000-032100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031856Z - 032100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z.  THE
NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW LINE OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO/THROUGH THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  NEAR AN APPARENT WAVE WITHIN THIS LINE...NOW
APPROACHING THE COLUMBIA SC AREA...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...TOWARD THE FAYETTEVILLE NC
AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS REGION...INSOLATION...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  WITH AT LEAST SOME FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
RECENT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EVIDENT IN THE COLUMBIA
VWP DATA...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW FIELDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED...POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR/KERR.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34328120 34818066 35118000 35347929 35227884 34627882
            33718072 33718148 34328120




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