000
ACUS11 KWNS 042241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042241
TXZ000-OKZ000-050445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST AND NW TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 042241Z - 050445Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST AND NORTHWEST TX FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS SHOULD REACH
A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH A FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL AND
EAST TX. SFC TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN WEST AND NW TX ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S F WITH THE FREEZING LINE LOCATED FROM NEAR DALLAS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO AND WWD TO JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF
THIS LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES...EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER WEST TX AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NEWD INTO THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS FROM MIDLAND TO
ABILENE EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB
WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F. THIS TEMPERATURE PROFILE
WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING AND SLEET ACROSS THE MCD AREA WHERE
PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS.

..BROYLES.. 03/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33319807 32639947 32320103 32330176 32840218 33600200
            34020047 34359851 33319807