Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 041000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040959
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-041230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LONG ISLAND...EASTERN CT...RI...AND
SOUTHEAST MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040959Z - 041230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING STORM /TOWARD THE ENE AROUND 45-50
KT/...CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREAS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST
LONG ISLAND...WILL TRACK ACROSS BLOCK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN PART
OF RI BY 1030Z.  THIS STORM ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE ENE ACROSS THE
REST OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
BETWEEN 1030-12Z.  ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING OR LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 50 KT AND HAIL...POTENTIALLY NEAR 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER...WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

DISCUSSION...AT 0950Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FAST-MOVING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST LONG ISLAND
NORTH TO THE COAST OF CT...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA HAS HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS AS COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER TO THE W/SW IN NJ/ERN PA/MD...RESULTING IN GREATER
INSTABILITY AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME
SURFACE-BASED EARLY THIS MORNING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT/DPVA WILL
ADVANCE ENEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING...WHILE 50+ KT SWLY 500-MB WINDS ENHANCES DEEP SHEAR
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
AND ORGANIZED STORMS.  GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE PRIMARY
NORTHEAST LONG ISLAND STORM AND THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED...THE GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHILE HAIL IS AN ISOLATED...SECONDARY
THREAT.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41627234 41807169 41877076 41817013 41666990 41246993
            41107065 41007133 40837209 40747277 41627234




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