000
ACUS11 KWNS 212020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212020
NDZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 426...

VALID 212020Z - 212115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING
WINDS IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ND. TORNADO WATCH 426 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST ND
HAVE QUICKLY CONGEALED INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR COMPLEX AS OF
20Z...WITH A SOUTH-END SUPERCELL NOTED TO BE NEARING THE I-94
VICINITY AROUND/JUST EAST OF DICKINSON. A LARGE HAIL/TORNADO RISK IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AND/OR OTHER GRADUALLY INCREASING
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ND...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ANGLES GENERALLY SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
ND.

HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION OF A SPATIALLY EXPANDING
QUASI-LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE
PREVALENT SCENARIO. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE AND
ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY INTENSE
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL ND. THIS MCS WILL THRIVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z
OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUPPORTIVE OF
2500-5000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND.

..GUYER.. 07/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48230232 48780074 48729816 47799827 46339851 46030055
            46090270 46550300 47580258 48230232