000
ACUS11 KWNS 030548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030547
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-031045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN WV...WRN/NRN VA...DC...CNTRL MD

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 030547Z - 031045Z

SUMMARY...A MIX OF ALL WINTER PRECIP TYPES WILL PERSIST AND
GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD THIS MORNING. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION
RATES THROUGH 12Z WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN WV INTO CNTRL
VA...REACHING 0.10-0.25 IN/HR. TOWARDS 12Z...A TRANSITION TO
MODERATE SNOW/SLEET SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
SRN WV TOWARDS THE DC METRO AREA WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT ARCING ACROSS
SWRN VA TO THE SERN VA/NERN NC BORDER...WITH THE WET-BULB FREEZING
LINE LAGGING THE FRONT FROM SRN WV TO CNTRL MD. VWP DATA FROM
LWX/RLX ONLY SAMPLED AROUND 10 KT 0-1 KM NLYS. THESE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING CAA BELOW THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION NOTED IN 00Z BNA/IAD
RAOBS AND RECENT AMDAR DATA NEAR BWI. ONGOING RAIN OVER MOST OF VA
INTO DC/CNTRL MD WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER PTYPES AS AN EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION SWATH PERSISTS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR DOWNSTREAM OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE OZARK PLATEAU.

HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO SRN WV AND
CNTRL VA FROM TN/KY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES E/NEWD.
DOMINANT WINTER PTYPES SHOULD BE FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY BEHIND THE
SURFACE FREEZING LINE...WITH AN INCREASINGLY BROAD CORRIDOR OF MIXED
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW. TOWARDS 12Z...TRANSITION TO
MAINLY SNOW/SLEET FROM N/S WILL OCCUR WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOWFALL
RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR MOST PROBABLE FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WV TOWARDS DC.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37178168 37788239 38318225 38668126 39027942 39597749
            39747668 39647621 39407600 38767623 37967795 37667921
            37468070 37178168