000
ACUS11 KWNS 280140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280139
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-280245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN PA...NWRN NJ...NWRN
MD...EXTREME NRN VA...NERN WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...

VALID 280139Z - 280245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...STG/SVR TSTMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN PA AND OVER HARDY
COUNTY WV...WITH LESS INTENSE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW AS OF 0130Z. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO REDUCE
INSTABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF
WW...WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK-MOD MUCAPE PERSISTING ACROSS SRN/ERN
PORTIONS. WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NRN
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA. TSTMS MAY AGAIN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AND...DESPITE STABILIZATION
FROM EARLIER STORMS...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET
THIS TREND AND RESULT IN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM THREAT.

..BUNTING.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41877882 41907590 41777536 41207465 40747483 40227493
            39847569 39787629 39787689 39457711 39317761 39267816
            39007843 38867868 38877883 39507893 39897908 40787878
            41877882