000
ACUS11 KWNS 232335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232335
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN WY...WESTERN SD AND THE NEB
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...

VALID 232335Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NEB PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN A
NARROW WARM SECTOR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS EASTERN WY AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT STRETCHING W-E ACROSS
SD. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE MODEST IN THIS AREA WITH ELEVATED
STORMS MAINLY PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. CELLS INITIALLY HAVE BEEN
SEMI-DISCRETE...BUT A TRANSITION TOWARD CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS
APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY. THIS CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIMIT SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH TIME. A FEW STRONG GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A
WELL-ORGANIZED...FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE DEVELOPS...BUT ELEVATED
NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT OVERALL. DOWNSTREAM OF
WW 487...STRONGER CAPPING OVER CENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A LOCAL EXTENSION ACROSS PARTS OF
WFO UNR CWA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO
PARTS OF BENNETT...JACKSON AND HAAKON COUNTIES. THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW HAS TRACKED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WY...RESULTING IN
A DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..LEITMAN.. 09/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   45200151 45570206 45530311 44750425 43960493 41010484
            40990285 41730238 43820152 45200151