Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241654
FLZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Areas affected...much of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 241654Z - 241900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across the FL Peninsula. A
new tornado watch will be needed for portions of the region by 19z.

DISCUSSION...A new tornado watch is likely across much of the FL
Peninsula by 19z. This new watch would replace eastern portions of
WW 261. Western portions of WW 261 may need to be locally extended
in time across the eastern FL Panhandle depending on convective
trends as a marginal severe threat may continue across this area
through 21z.

A very moist, strongly unstable environment is in place across the
Peninsula with dewpoints in the 70s resulting in SBCAPE values
greater than 2000 J/kg. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have
begun to develop over central FL as temperatures have climbed into
the mid and upper 80s. As forcing for ascent increases with the
approach of the upper trough, effective shear is also expected to
increase across the region over the next few hours, which should
result in an increase in thunderstorm intensity and organization.
RAP forecast soundings in conjunction with regional VAD wind
profiles continue to indicated favorable shear profiles supportive
of low-level rotation. This, combined with mean mixing ratios
greater than 16 g/kg will support a tornado threat. Given the
strength of deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates coupled
with PW values approaching 2 inches, damaging winds also will be
possible.

..Leitman/Kerr.. 05/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   26008007 25968019 25948102 26028158 26458211 26938255
            27018260 27758298 28768287 28768287 29558254 30028222
            30188184 30158141 30098122 29718084 26707987 26008007




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