657
ACUS11 KWNS 121724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121724
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-121930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas into western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121724Z - 121930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Sporadic damaging gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...A complex convective scenario is unfolding early this
afternoon across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks.
Robust surface moisture is in place along with a myriad of
convectively reinforced/augmented boundaries and MCVs from southwest
KS, across OK and western AR. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
and expected to increase in coverage over the next several hours.
Weak ascent from partial diurnal heating, the surface boundaries and
remnant MCVs should result in numerous storms near and along these
features by this afternoon. Saturated thermodynamic profiles with
tall/skinny MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will result in moderate to
strong updrafts and efficient warm-precipitation generation
processes with PWATS near or exceeding 2 inches. Vertical shear is
modest (15-25 kt), though some slight mid-level enhancement has been
noted near the MCVs. With heavy water loading, occasional stronger
downdrafts capable of sporadic severe gusts are possible, especially
where higher storm coverage/clustering can occur. This appears most
likely ahead of the MCVs and along the surface boundaries over the
next few hours.

CAM guidance and observations show increasing storm coverage
gradually spreading eastward across much of OK into western AR. with
a few strong/severe gusts possible. While a localized increase in
the severe risk appears likely with any of these persistent
clusters, the relatively disorganized nature of the threat suggests
a WW is unlikely.

..Lyons.. 07/12/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34189962 35720001 36849891 36889880 36999714 36389588
            36209543 35989462 36109336 35459259 34299380 33619527
            33239744 34189962

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN