000
ACUS11 KWNS 281737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281737
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281737Z - 281830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

DISCUSSION...MODEST DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING BENEATH COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NY.
AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST CORES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. ONE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING/EXPANDING
CU FIELD. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS AREA /INCLUDING PARTS OF CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY VT/NH/ AS A
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD...AND IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40 KT/ IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41667397 42197470 43027482 43897310 44547263 45067168
            45257095 44907022 44376989 43527028 41947256 41857284
            41737373 41667397