Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292042
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NWRN NM...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE...FAR
NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292042Z - 292245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTIVE OF SVR TSTMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SVR COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE CO AND ADJACENT NE NM HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED THE DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW
60S. RESULTING AIRMASS IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING CU
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT CU HAS ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINE FROM TAD SWD TO 40 WNW TCC...WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED ALONG A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR TAD. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION RESULTING
FROM CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS CONTINUED CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BOTH OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.

IN ADDITION TO A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE
MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS AND THE
RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS. STRONG
COLD POOLS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH EXIST IF STORM PROXIMITY IS CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR COLD POOL AMALGAMATION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED AND WW MAY BE EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

..MOSIER/KERR.. 07/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37270519 37590532 38280520 38440421 37890314 36930230
            35880287 35930412 36580465 37270519




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