000
ACUS11 KWNS 182312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182311
FLZ000-190115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182311Z - 190115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED
CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
BY 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE MLB VWP. THE DOWNSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY...PARTLY OWING TO LOWER 80S SFC TEMPERATURES AMIDST UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. MODERATE SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY
THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
COULD EVOLVE AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY BACKED SELY SFC
WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG
WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIES WELL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE A DETERRENT TO GREATER SVR TSTM COVERAGE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   27078069 27648067 27728050 27588032 27228013 26558003
            26228022 26218064 26428081 27078069