Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 241634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241633
NCZ000-241800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241633Z - 241800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER ERN NC. OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAVE UNDERGONE A MODEST INCREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY OVER
ERN NC. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW 70F
DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE...BUT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS HAVE ORGANIZED
INTO A LINEAR MODE AND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
OVERALL LINE OF STORMS IS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP
LAYER WINDS...WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF N-S ORIENTED BOWING SEGMENTS HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED...AND A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 07/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35047911 35587692 36037588 35727545 35177558 34777712
            34647882 35047911



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