Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 150858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150858
FLZ000-GAZ000-151000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150858Z - 151000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY CONFINED THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OR A
TORNADO IS EXPECTED ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THE
MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT ARE THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A POTENTIAL WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RECENTLY A SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED IN CALHOUN COUNTY
FL...WHERE CONVECTION IS INTERACTING WITH A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE EARLIER SMALL MCS THAT MOVED INTO SW GA AND HAS WEAKENED.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEMARCATES THE NRN EDGE OF THE RICHER
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY ENHANCED IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE BOUNDARY /COMPARED TO THE TLH VWP/.  GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING GUST RISK IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO NEAR AND JUST N OF TLH IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS.  A SMALL TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

..THOMPSON.. 04/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30288405 30178429 30038495 30018539 30208547 30358537
            30478492 30668428 30768395 30658377 30408374 30288405



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