Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 030048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030048
MIZ000-030445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...LAKE HURON

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 030048Z - 030445Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING
ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ALPENA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOW A PROFILE MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH A
WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST
OF NE LOWER MI FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WHERE AREAS HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SNOWBANDS. AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING...THE WARM LAYER NEAR 700 MB SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE
2 TO 3 CELSIUS RANGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS THE WARMING OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN LAKE HURON.

..BROYLES.. 02/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

LAT...LON   44478280 44368306 44348342 44408385 44528429 44628446
            44828459 45338441 45658349 45428275 44898249 44618260
            44478280



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