022
ACUS11 KWNS 171916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171916
OKZ000-TXZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Areas affected...western North Texas into parts of Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171916Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of
north Texas and portions of Oklahoma into early evening. Some small
hail and gusty winds may briefly accompany stronger cells, though
overall severe threat appears low. As such, watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were developing across central OK in a
zone of differential heating near a stalled cold front. Clouds
across northern OK on the cool side of boundary were in the 60s and
low 70s this afternoon whereas upper 70s to low 90s were observed
under partly cloudy skies south of the I-40 corridor. A moist
airmass also is in place across this region (mid 60s to near 70 F)
and weak to moderate destabilization is noted in 19z mesoanalysis.
Scattered thunderstorms should continue to develop across the region
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Modest midlevel lapse
rates and instability, coupled with veering vertical wind profiles
may support some brief stronger cells capable of small hail and
gusty winds. However, effective shear values less than 30 kt should
limit longevity of any organized and more intense storm structures.
A watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 09/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35879670 35979560 35949520 35799493 35599485 35339486
            35129493 34609555 34119650 33879716 33709808 33659911
            33650014 33820044 34040052 34420058 34730052 34940033
            35289968 35729774 35879670