Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 202042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202042
SDZ000-NDZ000-202245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL SD...SW/SCNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202042Z - 202245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL SD INTO SWRN/SCNTRL ND. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW OVER NWRN
SD WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS. A CORRIDOR OF MOIST AIR EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS CNTRL SD INTO
SWRN ND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NCNTRL SD EXTENDING
NWWD INTO SCNTRL ND WITH CLEARING EVIDENT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN SD. IN RESPONSE...THE STRONGEST SFC HEATING HAS
OCCURRED WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BISMARCK SWD TO NEAR PIERRE SD
ALONG WHICH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. CONVECTION
IS INITIATING TO THE NORTH OF THE MESOLOW AND ON THE WRN EDGE OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM NEAR DICKINSON ND SWD INTO PERKINS COUNTY
SD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT MARKEDLY INCREASE UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK CAP THAT IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONCERNING THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE RAPID CITY SD PROFILE
SHOWS A STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND ABOUT 40 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE FURTHER TO THE NORTH
WHICH WILL MAKE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPERCELLS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD
INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   47480061 47300272 46650331 45360322 44800203 44360089
            44559996 45199905 46719960 47480061




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