Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291919
TXZ000-NMZ000-292145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291919Z - 292145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN THE
1930Z-2100Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR RISK. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT EMANATING FROM A WAVY
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM E-CNTRL PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE TO S-CNTRL NM...ALONG WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS -- LOCALLY BOLSTERED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SRN
FRINGES OF REMNANT CLOUDS OVER NERN NM AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE --
WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AMIDST THESE REGIMES. THE
PRESENCE OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A FEW
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX WHERE VWPS
SAMPLE 20-25-KT MID-LEVEL NLYS THAT MAY FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED...SWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...AND LACKING
DEEP ASCENT...SVR COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32440626 33470682 35020648 35700592 35660528 35080473
            34890413 34690340 35050230 35480120 35360022 34220028
            32830277 32370478 32440626



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