000
ACUS11 KWNS 280049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280049
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OHIO...WRN PENNSYLVANIA...NRN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 447...

VALID 280049Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 447 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR SHORTLY TO REPLACE AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF WW 447.

DISCUSSION...STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BETWEEN NOW AND
03-06Z.  THIS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME CONCERN WITH REGARD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING.  THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH...BUT HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER DESTABILIZATION ON A BROADER SCALE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39058337 40148251 41258173 42118014 41927884 40817887
            38478173 39058337