Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 291933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291932
COZ000-NMZ000-292030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Areas affected...Central/southeastern Colorado into central/eastern
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291932Z - 292030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms in the Front Range may propagate
east/southeastward through the afternoon and early evening.  A WW is
not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have increased in intensity and
coverage over the past hour or two.  These storms are in an
environment characterized by very weak surface upslope, modest
mid-level destabilization, marginal deep shear for storm
organization, and a deeply mixed boundary layer, with 30-40F
dewpoint depressions favoring isolated downbursts.  Isolated hail
may also occur near the strongest cores given steep mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft (-13 to -15 C at 500mb).

Models/high-res guidance (HRRR and NAM4) are persistent in
suggesting that convection will merge and propagate eastward off of
the higher terrain over the course of the afternoon.  Isolated
damaging wind gusts/hail will be the biggest threats with this
activity if it does indeed organize as depicted in guidance.  Weak
low- and deep shear profiles in the region should mitigate the
intensity of any linear segments that can organize, which will
likely preclude any WW issuance this afternoon.

..Cook.. 05/29/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   38840535 39060508 39100443 38760367 37970346 36770318
            35400314 34190321 33640361 33300427 33150508 33270568
            33790600 34860590 36270584 37740561 38840535




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