Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 252026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252025
AZZ000-252130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252025Z - 252130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AZ...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING LOCALIZED THREAT FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SRN/CNTRL AZ...WITHIN THE ERN FRINGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
MOIST PLUME. 18Z SOUNDING FROM TUS SAMPLED NEAR 1.3 INCH OF PW...AND
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY
APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA
OF MOISTENING CO-LOCATED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER SERN AZ AND
NRN SONORA...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY AN APPARENT SUBTLE IMPULSE
PROGRESSING WWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MIDLEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NM. TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS /INCLUDING THE TUS AND POSSIBLY PHX METRO AREAS LATER/. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE AND BRIEF MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
MODES...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE THREAT...A WW APPEARS UNNECESSARY.

..ROGERS/DIAL.. 07/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31921294 33191320 34181308 34801250 34801207 34651136
            34051061 33441032 31311030 31331109 31921294



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