695
FXUS63 KDDC 251700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...Updated Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected southeast of Dodge
  City Saturday evening. Only one or two storms are expected,
  but localized high end severe weather is possible.

- Strong southwest winds and blowing dust west of US 283
  Saturday afternoon.

- Sunday and Monday will be dry, with rain chances returning
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...Significant/High-End Severe Weather Possible Southeast of
Dodge City Saturday Evening...

Midday surface analysis showed strong south to southeast winds
across SW KS, gusting near 40 mph, and these are expected to
continue to strengthen this afternoon. Winds will trend more SWly
through the afternoon as a dryline begins to establish over the
eastern zones, east of Dodge City. For this afternoon, increased
winds to the 90%ile of the NBM, and added areas of blowing dust
west of US 283. Some gusts near 50 mph are expected.

Quality moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is clearly
delayed, with the 60 isodrosotherm just near I-40 (AMA-OKC) as
of late morning. Moisture advection will only increase with time
through 7 pm, focusing into the southeast zones (southeast of
Ashland-Larned line). It is in these southeast zones where
supercell development is expected, as supported by 12z NAM,
RRFS, ARW, HRRR. It is quite possible any convective initiation
in Kansas will wait until about 7 pm, which would allow moisture
several more hours to establish across south central Kansas in
the pre-convective warm sector. Indeed, model consensus from the
NBM surges dewpoints in the 65-68 range across Pratt/Barber
counties. If a discrete supercell can establish and mature in
this vicinity 7-10 pm this evening, high-end tornado/hail
potential will exist in a highly unstable, highly sheared
environment. But this potential will be localized, and focused
southeast of an Ashland-Larned line, and perhaps only Pratt to
Medicine Lodge. Removed all pops west of US 283, and added
severe wording to the grids and forecast for the eastern zones.
Temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s by 4 pm,
especially just behind the sharpening dryline.

Clear and quiet but breezy tonight, with strong subsidence
expected behind the surface low moving into central Kansas
around sunrise. As such, SWly winds at sunset will trend NWly
and remain elevated/gusty through sunrise. Sunrise Sunday
temperatures near normal for late May, in the 50s.

Sunday will be sunny, windy and still warm, with sinking air
behind the departing shortwave trough. Increased NWly wind/wind
gust grids to the higher guidance (12z MAV/90%ile NBM)
averaging 20-30 mph. Models show a net cooling of 5-7C at 850 mb
Sunday versus Saturday, but this modest cold advection will
easily be masked by dry NWly downslope compression. Where this
downslope is maximized down the terrain, highs near 90 are
expected in the southeast zones, while areas along I-70 will be
restricted to near 80, with a high near 86 at DDC.

Winds will weaken to light and variable under a clear sky Sunday
night and early Monday, supporting stronger radiational
cooling, and minimum temperatures in the upper 40s and lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
agree weak upper level ridging will begin to take form over the
western CONUS, and move slowly east through Tuesday. This
pattern will support dry, warm conditions across the central
plains, with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Precipitation chances return Tuesday evening through
the end of the long term period as weak vorticity lobes crest
the upper level ridge Wednesday and Thursday, followed by an
approaching upper level trough on Friday. The GEFS is the most
bullish in terms of QPF, with probability of QPF > 0.1" at or
above 50-60% through Friday. While the ECMWF EPS is notably
quieter, the probability of QPF > 0.1" still reaches the 50-70%
range on a few occasions, mainly Wednesday evening and Thursday
evening. This more active pattern will also be associated with
temperatures near or just below normal for most areas, with
afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s along and east of
US-83.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Intense S/SW winds are
expected at all airports this afternoon through 00z Sun, gusting
35-37 kts. Areas of blowing dust may limit visibility locally
near GCK/LBL/DDC. Any thunderstorms Saturday evening are
expected to remain east of the airports, with no mentions in
this TAF issuance. SW winds will subside some, but remain
elevated and gusty, at sunset, then trend elevated NWly behind a
surface low expected to be in central Kansas at 12z Sun. After
15z Sun, VFR/SKC will continue, with strong NW winds gusting
30-32 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Turner